Swift’s famous essay (A Modest Proposal, published in 1729) is, of course, entirely satirical. Its humour merely makes it an even more devastating indictment of a capitalism deracinated from any morality.
We now live in a world where Swift’s capitalism is the norm, now economically transformed through a pandemic. Perhaps it is time for another ‘modest proposal’.
On March 11 the Chancellor delivered his budget. It envisaged 1.1% economic growth this year and allowed £30 billion towards coronavirus. At the time no one seemed to think this unreasonable. It is now just over one month on and the latest economic predictions from the OBR are for a 35% economic decline in the second quarter. Yet the information on the threat of coronavirus, the speed of its spread and the measures necessary to stop it were as known then as they are now. Although it was ‘known’ it wasn’t ‘accepted’.
I thus take all of these forecasts and predictions with a very large pinch of salt. In my own business and those of my colleagues I see far more lasting damage and the necessity of a far longer recovery. It is a dangerous delusion to assume the world will be the same again, nor should we want it to be.
So what can we economically do? The UK budget deficit is already predicted to substantially exceed that of the worst year of the 2008 recession. Our debt levels will balloon well beyond the magical 100% of GDP figure. And we will have all the further unwelcome distortions of quantitative easing, the crowding of credit markets with the governments insatiable demand for money along with all the other consequences of emergency action.
So what is to be done? The British economy in 2018 had a GDP of roughly £2.3 trillion so the scale of this crisis goes way beyond the simple use of tax and spend to both hold the line and rectify the damage. It challenges to other routes such as monetary easing.