Author Archives: Jack Nicholls

The joy of our election success was shaded by the sizeable Reform UK vote share, and it needs to be taken seriously. Even if by the 2029 election Reform have become a busted flush, it is likely they will have gained numerous council seats along the way and, as a minimum, hold the balance of power in multiple councils. They may well have beachheads in Holyrood, Cardiff and, via the TUV, Stormont. It is not inconceivable that they gain a Police Commissioner or Mayoralty on hardline law and order platforms with a substantial xenophobic sheen. That prospect scares me, and I want a plan for dealing with it that involves us.

Reform voters are not necessarily the same as Reform members. If you exclude active supporters, all parties’ voters are a mix of habitualists, tactical and/or contextual vote lenders, and people who like their local candidate/representative irrespective of party. There are for us Lib Dem voters, people who vote Lib Dem as a rule, sometimes or this time, and plenty who are voting person over party or against someone else. 

Anecdotally, Reform voters appear to come in four broad varieties, with points of internal crossover. The first group are motivated by fears about immigration and culture, and perceived threats to their sense of identity. The second are Brexit-inclined market deregulators who want fiscal credibility and don’t believe the Tories can provide it anymore. The third are economically quite social democratic, with a nationalist glaze, but are unconvinced by Labour (especially now). The fourth are independent-minded localists who want a decent local representative, for whom party comes lower down the list of priorities.

We cannot reasonably expect to appeal to the convinced end of group 1. We are pluralist multicultural inclusive internationalists and thus the natural enemy. That doesn’t mean not engaging with and challenging them, even when it results in a doorstep disagreement and a lost vote, but it’s not fertile ground. We can however be the party that brings over some of the other three camps. We are the party of the ongoing conversation between freedom to and freedom from. We regulate or deregulate, intervene or keep out, actively empower or support people to empower themselves, based on what creates more meaningful, useable, tangible freedom.