Author Archives: Rosemary Thomas

my Today marks the fourth anniversary of the second phase of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Phase one started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and parts of the Donbas – Putin’s response to ordinary Ukrainians’ refusal to disavow their European future. Now is a good time to remember why we are supporting Ukraine; not just because it is right but because we must if the liberal order and the rule of law on which it is based is to survive.

It is also time to recognise Ukraine as central for Europe’s security and prosperity in an increasingly unstable world. We need Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs us and until Ukraine is lifted out of the grey security zone to which previous failed peace agreements have consigned it, there will be a persistent threat to European security.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia could have chosen cooperation with Europe but settled on the path of confrontation, sowing instability in its “near abroad” to maintain control over its neighbours. As at home, so abroad. Putin propped up Syria’s murderous regime to the very last while his Africa Corps supports autocrats and military juntas in exchange for resource concessions and ousting Western partnerships in Africa.

Chaos is not a glitch but a defining feature of Russia’s foreign policy. We feel its effects increasingly in Europe where Russia’s long-running campaign to disrupt, sabotage and sow unrest has intensified since 2022. The immediate purpose is to weaken our resolve to support Ukraine, but the underlying goal is the demise of the global liberal order.

Russian meddling may have affected the outcome of US elections as well as the the fine-edge Brexit vote which materially damaged the security and economy of the UK and the unity of Europe. Neither theory can be proven, but plausible deniability, like chaos, is a feature of Russian foreign policy.