my Today marks the fourth anniversary of the second phase of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Phase one started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and parts of the Donbas – Putin’s response to ordinary Ukrainians’ refusal to disavow their European future. Now is a good time to remember why we are supporting Ukraine; not just because it is right but because we must if the liberal order and the rule of law on which it is based is to survive.

It is also time to recognise Ukraine as central for Europe’s security and prosperity in an increasingly unstable world. We need Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs us and until Ukraine is lifted out of the grey security zone to which previous failed peace agreements have consigned it, there will be a persistent threat to European security.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia could have chosen cooperation with Europe but settled on the path of confrontation, sowing instability in its “near abroad” to maintain control over its neighbours. As at home, so abroad. Putin propped up Syria’s murderous regime to the very last while his Africa Corps supports autocrats and military juntas in exchange for resource concessions and ousting Western partnerships in Africa.

Chaos is not a glitch but a defining feature of Russia’s foreign policy. We feel its effects increasingly in Europe where Russia’s long-running campaign to disrupt, sabotage and sow unrest has intensified since 2022. The immediate purpose is to weaken our resolve to support Ukraine, but the underlying goal is the demise of the global liberal order.

Russian meddling may have affected the outcome of US elections as well as the the fine-edge Brexit vote which materially damaged the security and economy of the UK and the unity of Europe. Neither theory can be proven, but plausible deniability, like chaos, is a feature of Russian foreign policy.

Trump has rightly forced Europe to take responsibility for its own security. But now the US is not only jeopardising its mutually beneficial security partnership with Europe, but actively working against Europe’s own security interests which now revolve critically around Ukraine. Ukraine’s stubborn determination since 1991 to adhere, however imperfectly, to its democratic values has thwarted Putin’s imperialistic dream. Should he succeed, this would constitute a direct threat to Europe. Meanwhile, the US is hampering the flow of arms purchased for Ukraine and bullying Ukraine into territorial concessions which favour Russia. Ed Davey has rightly said that forcing Ukraine to give up vital defensive territory is a price we cannot allow Ukraine to pay. Czechoslovakia in 1938 looms large before us as a warning.

In an increasingly lawless and competitive world both China and the US use economic measures to blackmail other states in pursuit of their goals. Ukraine as an EU partner is an attractive proposition in this regard. With its enormous agricultural sector and its reserves of rare earths and other vital resources and its mastery of IT and innovation, Ukraine would bolster European resilience and help modernise our economy.

Unmanned weapons have revolutionised warfare in a way most of us struggle to comprehend and we are far from ready for it. Ukraine is already helping us adapt to this new reality but much more is possible. Ukraine is rapidly rebuilding its formerly strong military-industrial complex which is already producing weapons for Europe. Ukraine’s membership would give a much-needed boost to NATO, but the US is pressing Ukraine to give up its NATO aspirations as part of its “peace” proposals.

We cannot know how and when this war will end, but we must be ready for at least two more years of war or another pretend peace agreement – the third in 12 in years – that will only pave the way for another wave of Russian aggression. We must strive to avoid this. Ukraine will fight on because it must and we in Europe must continue and intensify our support. If changing borders by force becomes acceptable, the outlook for global security is bleak. EU membership would lift Ukraine out of the grey zone and bolster our security. Alas, the UK no longer has a say in this, but we do have real power to push for Ukraine to be embedded as full and equal partners in Europe’s security architecture. As Polish PM, Donald Tusk, recently said, Ukraine does not have to be grateful; we should be grateful to Ukraine. It’s time to show it.

* Rosemary Thomas, OBE is a former diplomat specialising in Eastern Europe and is Chair of Liberal Democrat Friends of Ukraine (to join contact: [email protected]).