Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Gordon Brown’s Labour Party took a pounding in last week’s local elections, and a new YouGov poll sees them trailing the Tories by 26% – so calling a general election is probably the last thing on the Prime Minister’s mind this morning. He can, after all, delay going to the country for another two years.

But the question LDV is asking is this: what do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election? Here are your choices:

> a Labour victory with a Commons majority
> Labour largest single party but no overall majority
> Conservative largest single party but …

Last Friday, we published a link to an online survey being conducted by the new Politics Home website, asking a number of questions about what Nick Clegg should do about a range of issues: in the event of a hung Parliament, in establishing the party’s ‘brand’, and the Lib Dems’ strategic options.

Despite some reservations expressed in the comments thread about the questions’ wording, over 100 of you responded in double-quick time, and the results have now been made available to LDV. You can view the full breakdown here.

(I must of course enter the caveat that as …

Election fever is gripping the nation. Well, maybe not, but political activists up and down the country are currently wearing out their shoe leather canvassing and delivering leaflets ahead of the local elections in 10 days’ time.

Since the last national test of opinion, in May 2007, both the Lib Dems and Labour have replaced their leaders, a general election has been hyped-up then postponed, and a global credit crunch has become reality. So there’s plenty for the voters to pass judgment upon. And of course many local votes will be decided, quite rightly, on the performance of local government with barely a reference to national policies.

We’re asking you to use all your psephological nous to tell us what you think will happen this year. Here are the three questions:

1. How many Council seats do you think the Lib Dems will gain or lose on 1st May? (This is net seats as recorded by the BBC website at 5pm on Fri, 2nd May).
2. What do you think will be the Lib Dems’, Labour and Tory national projected share of the vote? (Again, as stated by the BBC website at 5pm on 2nd May)?
3. What do you think will be the percentage of first preferences won by the three main candidates for London mayor?

Please leave your entries in the comments box, below. You can use a pseudonym if you prefer to remain anonymous, but you must use a valid email address for your entry to be included.

And the prize? Leaving to one side the admiration of your peers and glory of victory, you’ll win a limited edition Lib Dem Voice mug.

Here’s some historical background to help you in your deliberations…

Lib Dem Voice has already noted that we have just passed the century since Herbert Asquith became the last leader of a Liberal government. So we thought you might like to know of a lecture assessing his legacy which is taking place in Oxford next month. (If any LDV readers are thinking of coming, do drop me a line at [email protected].) Details as follows:

HH ASQUITH AND THE LIBERAL LEGACY – A LECTURE
An event jointly organized by the Bodleian Library and the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography to mark the centenary of Asquith’s 1908 Liberal Government
5:30pm, Thursday 15 May 2008

The new Politics Home website is conducting a survey this morning, asking what Nick Clegg should do about a range of issues: in the event of a hung Parliament, in establishing the party’s ‘brand’, and the Lib Dems’ strategic options.

Politics Home is giving Liberal Democrat Voice readers the opportunity to take part. The survey was designed to be answered by the site’s PHI100 panel – a politically representative group of 100 opinion formers. There are six questions, and it should take no more than 2-3 minutes to complete.

To complete the survey, please click on this link.

Lib Dem blogger Alix Mortimer (sometimes of this parish) asks the question over at the Guardian’s Comment Is Free blog following Brian Paddick’s feisty Time Out interview.

According to the BBC, Angela Smith, parliamentary private secretary to Yvette Cooper “has told colleagues she is going to resign in protest at the abolition of the 10p tax rate. … The Sheffield Hillsborough MP has previously been extremely loyal.”

The Lib Dems were the first party to point out that Gordon Brown – the supposed saviour of traditional Labour – was using his last Budget, in March 2007, to hit the poorest to benefit the richest… about 30 minutes after Mr Brown sat down. At last Labour MPs are beginning to realise quite what an unjust, and unpopular, …

A poll in today’s Financial Times suggests that:

Gordon Brown is less trusted to steer his country through the global financial crisis than any other major western European leader… 68 per cent of respondents said they were “not confident at all” in ability to deal with the economic crisis.”.

You can read the full story here.