Author Archives: Bill le Breton

Opinion: Pick your horse in the grand recovery stakes

Moody’s, the US credit ratings agency, has put the UK on negative outlook, threatening the country’s triple A status. This came the day after three other organizations had also made their views known.

The CBI predicted that the UK would avoid a double-dip recession, the services firm BDO published the results of a survey suggesting turnovers were continuing to fall and the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development reported that employers were more likely to lay off staff.

It is now four and a half years since the uncertainty of the credit worthiness of banks and hedge funds that were …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 6 Comments

Opinion: 29 Days to save the UK

We are lucky it is a leap year. It gives us an extra day to save the country.

Here are two graphs, both from the Financial Times. This one shows the UK’s Nominal Gross Domestic Product. It shows the development of the double dip recession we are facing.

The figures are up to October 2011. The next will be published in February, but expect the trend lines to continue ‘south’.

Then, here’s a chart of a measure of the supply of money in the economy. It is a broad …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 19 Comments

Opinion: Agreeing with Nick

I agree with Nick. Following the result of the General Election we had to enter a coalition with the Conservatives.

I go further than him, though.

Especially for those who have supported the party for decades, it was the decisive point for which we had long battled.

Every Focus written, every door knocked, every pound raised, every campaign fought led us to that moment, that decision, that responsibility which, thanks to our hard earned votes in the House of Commons, we had been able to seize.

It was always going to be the case that when our moment came …

Posted in Op-eds | 17 Comments

Opinion: How can the community politics approach reform the Coalition?

“All change, all change here!” That was the shout of the bus-conductor as we reached the terminus. If only we had realised what a profound philosopher he was. For he is no more, nor is his role, nor the structure of society he inhabited.

Change and how to cope with it is at the heart of every human decision. The conservative wishes to take a measured step based on hard facts taken from experience. The progressive predicts the shape of the future and confidently proposes a radical leap.

By contrast, the community politician, the ideas behind whose activism we have begun

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 8 Comments

Opinion: So what is this Community Politics all about then?

Party President, Tim Farron recently published on this site a very well received piece reminding us that we have, close to hand, the greatest opportunity in the history of our party.

He also observed that, “our biggest collective failure recently – from the grassroots to the cabinet – has been that too many Lib Dems have drifted from the sort of community politics that we have prided ourselves on in the past, or else been too busy to practice”.

Community politics is a much misunderstood concept practiced by many as an electoral technique and belittled by others as ‘pavement politics’.

I hope the …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 3 Comments

Opinion: Time for a New Deal

Looking forward and rejecting recriminations, what the country needs now is a New Deal. What the party needs now, within the Coalition and after the deal-breaking of the last few weeks, is also a new deal.

As might have been expected, the economy is flat lining. The bounce that the optimists thought would spontaneously follow a period of recession has not occurred. We are on the verge of a round of public expenditure cuts that will further depress the economy and destroy the life chances of millions.

The justification for accepting deeper and earlier cuts to public expenditure said more about an …

Posted in Op-eds | 25 Comments

Opinion: And there was no more sea … (Revelations 21:1)

Have a look at this cutting I found from the Wall Street Journal, 2nd March:

Market has encountered resistance since hitting new highs Tuesday, natural in view of the sweeping rally up to then. Previous pauses in early Jan. and mid-Feb. were followed by renewed rallying; evidence this is a similar period of consolidation seen in pattern of declining volume on recessions, indicating line of least resistance remains upward.

With the Dow today on 10,500 and the FTSE around 5,500, are we moving onwards and upwards towards a recovery?

Nope! The date line on that cutting was 2nd March 1931. That’s about …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , and | 1 Comment

Opinion: Engage the Enemy more Closely

Sorry to be militaristic. This is the signal that the Royal Navy used to make it a supreme force in the world two hundred years ago.

What is the one factor that is preventing thousands of electors giving the Tories another turn? It is fear of what they did last time. It is fear of Margaret Thatcher’s impact on unemployment and on essential services.

Cameron’s main objective has been to move this stigma from the brand – cut’s in services, dole queues, the nasty party.

This morning Osborne admitted on the Today Programme that he will …

Posted in Op-eds | 7 Comments

Opinion: The Morning after the Night Before … February 1974

On Friday 19 February 2010 from 9am until midnight, the BBC Parliament channel gave us the chance to relive the February 1974 election by broadcasting the whole of Election Night 74, hosted by Alistair Burnett.

When I stumbled on the coverage at 6 pm, the programme was reaching 1.00 pm on Friday 1 March, the day after polling day.  By that stage, 600 results were in and the Conservatives were a dozen seats and a few thousand votes behind Labour.  The swingometer, operated by Robert McKenzie, showed a 2% swing to Labour from the Conservatives but this failed to register the real flow of …

Posted in News | Tagged | 11 Comments

Opinion: “Si, se puede”

In 2006 two filmmakers decided to document the first term of a little known US senator called Barack Obama. Within nine months their rookie was running for president.

The resulting two hour HBO documentary was shown on BBC Two last Saturday (9th Jan). If you didn’t see it, do all you can to track it down somewhere, somehow. It is clear that the film-makers formed a trusted relationship with Barack, Michelle and his team so the access to the deeds, the techniques, the emotions and the inspiration of the whole cast from candidate to ten year …

Posted in LDVUSA and Op-eds | Tagged and | 5 Comments

Opinion: But is it really time for a change?

Party strategists have bet heavily on their assessment that voters think it is time for a change.

Perhaps simplistically, they hold to the notion that British political fortunes are governed by a pendulum. You often hear them criticise what they term the blue/red red/blue swings, but privately they accept it as a fundamental ‘law’ of political physics and have allowed themselves to be governed by this supposed law these last two years.

2010 will be one of those ‘Time for a Change’ elections, they have deduced.

From that deduction they moved on to suggest that the Conservatives (to whom in their estimate the pendulum has swung) have won the argument among the British public that they, the Conservatives, are the party of change.

The next step in the analysis was to presume that attacks on Conservatives or Conservative policies would thus position the Liberal Democrats as against change and therefore implicitly pro the status quo and, deep down in voter consciousness, pro-Labour.

Among leading Liberal Democrat MPs this conclusion may have been conveniently close to their political preferences, for others – and I think we may include Cable in this – it makes for an agonising and uncomfortable position.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , and | 21 Comments

Opinion: Why this is no time for “Savage Cuts”

Those concerned that the drive to lower the deficit by cutting government spending in the near term will stall recovery and lead to the so-called double dip recession have had their views strengthened by the publication of Slash and Grow? Spending cuts and economic recovery by liberal think-tank Centre Forum.

The big hint is in the little question mark of the title. After twenty-eight pages of detailed analysis, Centre Forum summarises i its news release:

Osborne’s plan for cuts imperils Britain’s recovery.

George Osborne’s determination to cut the deficit at all costs risks leaving the economy sluggish and the government still mired

Posted in Op-eds | 29 Comments

Opinion: If you go down to the woods today…

At the end of the thread to my last offering there was an invitation from Mark Wright to comment on whether I still thought our conference was a disaster. Yes, I do Mark; I know it was; day by day I grow more and more certain.

My case was never based on poll performance (especially during the conference season) and Sunday’s new ComRes poll with its CON 40% (+2), LAB 28% (+5), LDEM 19% (-4) figures should remind us why. No, for me the evaluation was always to do with lost opportunities. May I try to explain my reasoning?

Back in the …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 7 Comments

Opinion: The disaster of Bournemouth was avoidable

This was always going to be a disastrous conference. We have spent our annual opportunity to reach out to people by communicating a confused image. When the country needed hope, vision and leadership we offered it the ‘straight talk of progressive austerity’.

This disaster was foreseeable.

It was made from a dangerous mixture of a wrong political strategy (based on a wrong economic strategy) added to a leadership and a communications team which had very, very little political experience.

Ming Campbell and Vince Cable when they came to conference as leaders had to be stabilisers with a reassuring …

Posted in Conference and Op-eds | Tagged | 26 Comments

Opinion: A Fresh Start is the most vacuous suicide note in history

A Fresh Start for Britain is the most vacuous suicide note in history with its testosterone laden rallying cries of:

cuts will be necessary to deliver any priorities”
“any new spending will be paid for by a specific cut made elsewhere”
“This means we will not increase public spending overall”

and

We will only include policies in our programme for government once we are certain the necessary resources are available.”

Our leadership is drunk on a cocktail of self flagellation (the hair shirted economics of the balanced budget) and political marketing. Both intoxicating ingredients are as much a product of the Westminster micro-climate as the abuse of allowances.

It was this macho economics which had the leadership advocating tax cuts at Bournemouth while those in the world outside Westminster were experiencing the first blasts of an economic blizzard. The leadership appears to have climbed back onto the Keynesian bandwagon but with little conviction or credibility which is why A Fresh Start schizophrenically advocates (frequently in the same paragraph) large scale public works, cuts in public borrowing, safeguarding employment and being uncertain about ‘what Britain can afford’.

The slump continues. Borrowing is not a problem. Borrowing and other means of creating money by governments is still necessary at this time to counter the destruction of money that occurs when other sectors save more than they borrow and when the velocity of money falls. Demand remains the problem. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy remain the answer.

But we are assured it is alright because these ‘hard choices made by Liberal Democrats will be firmly guided by our values’ – using market speak these are defined, confined and trivialised as: Fairer, Greener, Safer, Stronger .

But are your values summed up by these sanitised slogans?

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 15 Comments
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Recent Comments

  • Nonconformistradical
    I second Henry's comments about Barrow - this south-eastener has at least, albeit not recently, set foot in the Barrow constituency (visiting friends who lived ...
  • Henry
    I do get very annoyed by the comments on these by-election posts. The over-exaggeration of our comeback because we won last week and then complain when we finis...
  • Daniel Walker
    @David Raw I am afraid I don't know that; however I am always wary of arguments that say we should have the cheapest possible democracy. (Which isn't to say ...
  • Daniel Walker
    @Kira I was at the debate where that policy was decided. There were two other options: one was the regions of England having the same powers as Scotland and ...
  • David Raw
    @ Daniel Walker Has the party costed the amount for changing to the arrangement you describe, Daniel, and what amount does it come to ? For my part I wo...