Cause for celebration this week with a good set of by-election results:
Liberal Democrat Andrew Baldrey won St Mary’s with Summercombe (Torbay UA) from the Conservatives with a huge swing:
LD Andrew Baldrey 801 (52.7%;+16.4)
Con 365 (24.0%;-23.9)
Lab 195 (12.8%;+12.8)
UKIP 159 (10.5%;+10.5)
Turnout 26.2%
Percentage change is since May 2007
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats held all the seats that we were defending: the principal elections were Kidlington North on Cherwell District Council; Nethermayne on Basildon District Council (the seat previously held by Ben Williams who stood down to become a special advisor to the Government’s deputy chief whip) and Thatcham South and Crookham in West Berkshire.
We also held seats on Lewes and Thatcham Town Councils.
In London, we maintained second place behind the Tories in Frognal and Fitzjohn’s (Camden) and Holland ward (Kensington and Chelsea).
See ALDC for full details of this week’s by-election results.
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5 Comments
I dont believe it! You’re lying! Dont you know the Lib Dems are in meltdown!? Would someone hurry up and tell the voters that the Lib Dems are in meltdown as they obviously havent heard it yet!
C’mon – lets get our Poll ratings down to single figures!! – We will sweep all before us!!!
Ho Hum- you did not report any of these from 7 days ago though did you….I wonder why 🙂
15th July
Preston CC Riversway ward
Majority 502. Turnout 29.3%. Lab gain from Lib Dem
Bradfield PC, Oughtibridge
Majority 146. Turnout 16.3%. Con gain from Lib Dem.
Bradfield PC, Worrall
Majority 100. Turnout 15.8%. Ind gain from Lib Dem
Knaresborough TC, King James
Majority 488. Turnout 30.32%. Con gain from Lib Dem.
In two of those holds our vote share was down. Not always indicative of anything as that can often be the case with a new candidate but on a brief scan through the last couple of weeks results vote share being down is more common than up (ignoring seats we hadn’t contested last time where it’s pretty easy to get an increase!)
My view on local by-elections is that our default position is a small vote share increase as there will, on average, be an increase in our activity compared to last time. In effect that means that stand still is a vote decline.
I think Hywel is right. Without having analysed the data from post-coalition by-elections fully, it seems to me that the overall pattern is that we have lost a small vote share, Labour have gained (and are contesting seats they did not contest last time), and that there is some evidence that where UKIP stand they are taking votes from the Tories. None of these is making a big impact at the moment, but as a narrative these trends are not unexpected.