Category Archives: Op-eds

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the nine polls published in July:

Tories 39%, Labour 26%, Lib Dems 19% – YouGov/Fabians (unpublished, 1st July)
Tories 41%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 20% – ICM/Guardian (14th July)
Tories 42%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 18% – YouGov/S. Times (18th July)
Tories 38%, Labour 23%, Lib Dems 22% – ComRes/S. Independent (19th July)
Tories 38%, Labour 26%, Lib Dems 20% – Populus/Times (21st July)
Tories 40%, Labour 24%, Lib Dems 18% – Mori (unpublished, 21st July)
Tories 40%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 20% – YouGov/S. People (26th July)
Tories 42%, Labour 24%, Lib Dems 18% – ComRes/Independent (29th July)
Tories 41%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 18% – YouGov/Telegraph (31st July)

Which gives us an average rating for the parties in July as follows (compared with June’s averages):

Tories 40% (+2%), Labour 25% (+2%), Lib Dems 19% (+1%)

All three main parties can take a little consolation from this month’s figures, which sees a slight recovery for each at the expense of ‘Others’ (chiefly Ukip, Greens and BNP), who were boosted by their increased exposure during the run-up to June’s local and Euro elections. However, both Labour and the Tories have yet to return to their pre-‘Expenses-gate’ support of 28% and 43% respectively.