Cameron’s rating and a jury advocate’s view on winning this case.
David Cameron’s personal ratings have slumped in the wake of his re-negotiation, which was greeted negatively by the Conservative press, reports the Independent.
It is my view that the Prime Minister cannot win the referendum if his rhetoric is “I have made the EU less bad”. He needs to make the case “the EU is a good thing.”
In my day job as a barrister I would not expect to secure a client’s acquittal by saying to the jury “my client is guilty of the offence but not as guilty as the other side say.” You can’t win by saying, “yes he stabbed the victim 50 times but the knife was smaller than they say it was.” To get a not guilty verdict I need to say to the jury “my client is not guilty and these are the reasons why” or in the murder example something like “he did not stab the victim, he was not there and there was no knife at all.”
We need to make what I would call a positive defence and not simply say “the other side have failed to prove their case against us.”
Advocates for EU membership need to say “membership is good, these are the reasons why and the evidence that supports it.” Obviously, the reasons and evidence selected must make an emotional connection and not be too dry, academic or see the world through Brussels eyes.
More evidence on the economic case for IN
Travel industry leaders say that being IN is important for low prices and safety.
HSBC have said they want the UK to stay in the EU and have hinted 1000 jobs would move to Paris in the event of Brexit.
In a survey of Anglo-German firms, 80% want the UK to remain in and nearly a third expect to “cut capacity” (i.e. jobs) in the UK if there is Brexit.
Cabinet, Brown and Salmond v Farage debate
Cabinet collective responsibility may be suspended from Friday. Expect to see Ministers star to come out for one side or the other from then and other subsequent days. The Leave campaign are planning a large event on Friday when, undoubtedly, they will want to reveal big names.
Gordon Brown has warned of a “future of misery” in the event of Brexit.
There looks set to be a Salmond v Farage debate. Salmond is good debater and this will be an interesting contest.
Bookmakers’ view
Online bookies, Betfair, are giving Remain a huge lead but anticipate the odds narrowing closer to June.
Obama intervention
President Obama is planning to get involved in the debate. It is clear that he sees UK membership of the EU as important for the USA and possibly even greater than that. What the President will do is as yet unclear but a speech in the UK is possible.
Opponents will say this is an unwarranted foreign intervention. But when you are making a big decision why not listen to a friend and neighbour’s thoughts before making your decision? The Leave side could always deploy their supporter Vladimir Putin to even things up?
* Antony Hook was #2 on the South East European list in 2014, is the English Party's representative on the Federal Executive and produces this sites EU Referendum Roundup.
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8 Comments
It’s easier to regulate markets effectively as part of the EU. I called for more regulation last night, which I think is easiest done at the EU level. The EU is a massive market and when it threatens or introduces legislation/regulation it can change things massively.
I rarely call for more regulation, but this specific example is about big businesses, one particular language one, that is loss-making and taking other people out of business with it. It is similar to Saudi Arabia and the oil-price too. People need to sell things sustainably.
Obama has been a crap president and is no friend of Britain. His “intervention” will go down very badly with a lot of people.
To get a not guilty verdict you need to say to the jury “my client is not guilty”. But what about justice? What if you know (or believe) your client is guilty? Is it OK for you to lie to get the outcome you want? What happens if you get your client a not guilty verdict, then he goes straight out and commits the same crime?
Sadly the whole affair has been mishandled….
When Cameron first introduced talk of his ‘re-negotiation’ and referendum his list of demands was extensive and we were led to believe that Europe would allow us to stay on OUR terms….
Over the last few years demand after demand has been quietly dropped or watered down and the demands have turned to pleas….
‘Brave Dave’ has been, like Chamberlain, hoping to wave HIS bit of paper. He hasn’t even got that…
I’m left wondering if it is now too late to try to introduce ‘facts’ into the ‘IN’ campaign; several of my friends who were staunch ‘INs’ are now ‘OUTs’ and others are wavering…
“In a survey of Anglo-German firms, 80% want the UK to remain in and nearly a third expect to “cut capacity” (i.e. jobs) in the UK if there is Brexit.”
No they didn’t. Some 29% said they “would consider” reducing or moving capacity. “Would consider” not “would”. And having considered it, they would probably realise it was a damned silly idea, moving out of Europe’s second largest market.
Meanwhile, the remaining 71%, or nearly three quarters, presumably would not even look at the possibility. That, I find is the most salient finding of that survey.
As for the travel leaders implying that you can’t get budget flights to Norway or Iceland and that it wouldn’t be safe to travel to those countries because they’re not in the EU, that too is nonsense.
Likewise the idea that HSBC would shift 1,000 jobs to a country with higher taxes and greater regulation that actively hates bankers is rather silly.
I’m still looking for some positive arguments about what the future holds for the UK in the EU and all the things that can be achieved that wouldn’t be possible with a few technical or commercial treaties. But I guess I’ll be waiting a long time for those…
‘It is my view that the Prime Minister cannot win the referendum if his rhetoric is “I have made the EU less bad”. He needs to make the case “the EU is a good thing.” ‘
Yes, look at how “The Liberal Democrats have made the tory-led Coalition less bad” worked.
The whole Cameron circus has filled me with dread that we may end up with Brexit by default. I can’t help but feel that it only increases the irritation with the UK throughout Europe, both in governments and people. The real way to reform the EU is to seek out reforms that benefit a lot of other countries too and implement them through the Parliament and the Council of Ministers. Cameron has gone back to the distain of the EU that was the major policy mistake of Attlee, post-war Churchill, Eden and Gaitskill.
One scenario after EU membership is that we become a fax-machine associate member like Norway or Switzerland, where we comply with all EU regulations without having any say in their formulation. Remember they are much smaller countries, members of Schengen, and Norway is awash with reserves retained from oil revenue.
The other scenario is that we embark on isolation, all sorts of ‘reforms’ and setting about changing laws. This sounds like a great employment opportunity for lawyers, diplomats and civil servants, all paid for from taxation or borrowing. It also brings the nightmare of European, American and Japanese businesses pulling back from the UK.
(Think of the UK’s biggest car plant, the French-controlled Nissan.)
‘Cutting Immigration’ often implies starving industry, academia, service industries and the NHS of key workers.
(Think of the UK’s biggest car plant, the French-controlled Nissan.)
Errrrr… yes lets look at Nissan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/engineering/11842649/Nissan-denies-scare-mongering-over-Brexit-as-it-invests-100m-in-Sunderland-plant.html
” – ‘Cutting Immigration’ often implies starving industry, academia, service industries and the NHS of key workers “.
Frustratingly, no matter how many times it’s mentioned, the liberal mind seem unable to grasp the concept of ** AUSTRALIAN IMIGRATION MODEL !!! **. Have NO fears dear liberals, there WILL still be immigration after Brexit, but it will be………. PEOPLE WE NEED….. !!.
Why do liberals have such difficulty understanding very simple concepts ?
@Ian Sanderson
“It also brings the nightmare of European, American and Japanese businesses pulling back from the UK.”
Airbus, Bridgestone, Diageo, GM Vauxhall, Hitachi, Siemens, Toyota, Unilever and Honda to name a few, have all pledged to stay in the UK. Nissan have said ” Our staying in Britain is no way conditional upon how people exercise their democratic rights in Britain”
German firm Lidl are investing £1.5 billion in store expansions in the UK, Indian owned Jaguar Land Rover have earmarked £1 billion for further UK investment.