In the next month 15 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

Lib Dems winning hereHere’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications.

They include Portsmouth South, where the incumbent MP, Mike Hancock, is currently suspended from the Lib Dems and is therefore ineligible to be selected for the party; and also the City of Durham, on paper the 27th most winnable seat for the Lib Dems, needing a swing of just over 3%.

The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates:

    Bracknell, 3rd July
    Ribble South, 4th July
    Gainsborough, 7th July
    Angus, 11th July
    Bishop Auckland, 11th July
    City of Durham, 11th July
    Easington, 11th July
    Erewash, 11th July
    Northampton North, 11th July
    Northampton South, 11th July
    Portsmouth North, 11th July
    Portsmouth South, 11th July
    West Worcestershire, 12th July
    South West Wiltshire, 18th July
    Inverclyde, 1st August

In addition, three seats are selecting their candidates to stand for the Scottish Parliament:

    Angus North and Mearns, 11th July
    Angus South, 11th July
    Inverness and Nairn, 18th July

Further information, including Returning Officer contact details, can be found on the Lib Dem members’ website: http://www.libdems.org.uk/forms/user_sessions/new and then once you have logged in by following the links: Our Party > Selection Adverts – Latest News. Note you will need to register online and login in order to access the advert webpage.

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14 Comments

  • Latest electoral calculus has our party down to 19 seats, not far off my prediction of 10 -12.
    Two latest opinion polls we are 7 and 8% respectively.
    Does not look good at all.
    How much longer do we have to continue in this way. It will not be alright on the night.

  • Simon
    They (we?) are not claiming themselves as experts! I am sure you have a go st prediction sometimes. There is near consensus here that the Lib Dems will do a lot worse than you seem to be suggesting in 2015 on here. Perhaps you are a “wishful thinker”?

  • Simon, have I tapped a raw nerve.
    Are you reluctantly and gradually coming to appreciate the reality?

  • I believe Rawlings and Thrasher analyse local election data. Since this is always relatively favourable to Lib Dems, it gives optimistic results if read straight across as a predictor of Parliamentary results. Opinion poll data, if not perfect, is more likely to be correct.

  • @David Allen, Rallings & Thrasher analyse changes in votes at Local Elections, comparing like with like, thats why they can predict National Elections. They have a very good record of prediction, much better than Polls taken more than a few weeks before Elections.
    Libdems are averaging 8% in current Polling but that is distorted by the effects of The European Elections, if we are going to look at Polling at least wait until they are back to “normal”.

  • It is no good clutching at straws, a national party we are not, local parties collapsing, large councilor basis all but destroyed , votes at parliamentary by elections appalling, even Eastleigh 15% down, local elections votes deplorable and totally embarrassing, MPs standing down in large numbers, MEPs destroyed, many voters identifying us with one word”betrayal”, opinion polling frightening over the past 12 – 18 months, the Ashcroft Con/Lib Dem marginal seat polling devastating. There is no time to wait, we have to act now and stop ignoring the obvious.

  • Portsmouth North and South are very juicy seats indeed.

  • Juicy for who, or do you mean the Lib Dems getting squashed?

  • Paul in Wokingham 1st Jul '14 - 11:04am

    Ashcroft reporting LD support down by 50% since GE 2010 in Lab-facing marginals. From 38% to 19%. Labour up 11% to 47%. So in this snapshot we lose 17 Labour facing seats.

  • paul barker 1st Jul '14 - 11:36am

    Four Polls yesterday suggesting that the effect of The European Elections may be starting to wear off. The average Labour lead was 1.5% compared to the 5% average that UKPolling Report calculated 2 days ago.
    We shouldnt forget that our main rivals are going through crises of their own.

  • Before we follow Paul in Wokingham all the way down the 2015-Disaster for Lib Dems narrative, it is worth recording that three of the four Lib Dem-Labour marginals polled by Lord Ashcroft – Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South – have been likely losses to Labour on everyone’s radar for quite a time. It is odd that Lord Ashcroft chose not to poll in Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Birmingham – Yardley, Cardiff Central, or Hornsey and Wood Green, in any one of which the figure for Lib Dem support is likely to have been higher. He also did not poll Burnley or Redcar, where the electoral arithmetic is more likely to be adverse to our party, but in both of which current polling might well have been a little more favourable than that in the seats that he did poll. So let us not get carried away simply by accepting Lord Ashcroft’s conclusions as gospel.

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