ORLANDO, Florida. A state with a rich political history, of hanging chads and contested election results back in 2000. A vital state in the primary calendar for the American Presidential election, given its winner takes all rules for delegates. The perfect place to campaign for Hillary on International Women’s Day.
The Democratic race is fairly straightforward here. Hillary is going to beat Bernie in Florida, and Bernie knows it. However, perception is everything in the US media, and so Bernie is campaigning to close the gap. The Democratic debate here is on Wednesday 9th March. Barring a mishap, Clinton will be fine. Canvassing 100 advance ballot voters (sorry, postal voters), Hillary is clearly ahead, but the talk is all elsewhere.
It’s red on red (*) Republican warfare in Florida.
This starts in my hotel room when I’m trying to relax after a long fight. Attack ads are banned here in the UK, something myself and Mark Pack have both observed is a good thing. Not so in the USA. “Trump employed illegal immigrants,” explains the voiceover in a sinister, Orwellian voice. “Conservatives can’t trust trump on immigration.”
The Republican war has spilt over onto the streets. Complaints come into the Hillary HQ about too many posters for one candidate outside a polling station, breaking normal campaign etiquette here. “For Bernie.” “No, for Rubio.”
It’s make or break time for the new Republican establishment favourite, now that Jeb has dropped out. As the junior Senator from Florida, he has to win his home state. Last week he was 16 points behind Trump, this week that had fallen to 8. Rubio has momentum here, but it may be too little, too late. Cruz is now campaigning hard here, seeing an opportunity to knock Rubio out of the race nationwide.
From our point of view it’s clear what Hillary would prefer: if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich can win Ohio (the latter is likely) then Trump would need to win 67% of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention. That won’t happen, ensuring Republican chaos when they get to Cleveland. Watch the West Wing where this happens fictionally to the Democrats and you’ll get the idea.
All of this would suit Hillary down to the ground. It looks like it will be Hillary versus Trump, with Hillary being able to solidify her hold on the Democratic nomination as early as next Tuesday in the Florida Primary. However, a wounded Trump would suit her much better than a strong one.
* – the colours are backwards here. I helpfully explain this would never have happened if they’d just paid their taxes on their tea and stayed part of the British a Empire…
* Simon Foster is a lecturer in Politics and Economics, and has published twenty-five books on Politics, PSHE and Citizenship.
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18 Comments
Yay! Shillary!
This article has the smell of something that was written before Sanders won Michigan last night.
Michigan poll March 6 (Fox 2 Detroit): Clinton 66% Sanders 29%
Actual result in Michigan on March 8 : Sanders 50% Clinton 48%
Florida poll March 8 (News 13 Orlando): Clinton 61% Sanders 30%
Actual result in Florida on March 15 after debate???
In the current circumstances I think it is somewhat premature to talk about Hillary being “fine”. This thing is not over.
Go Bernie!
I don’t believe that Hillary is going to be the Democratic candidate.
My reason for this is my firm belief that she is going to be indicted over the emails. The staffer who set up her State Department emails on her private server has been granted immunity from prosecution – the Feds don’t do a thing like that unless they are serious about going forward with the case.
If Bernie Sanders were to win the nomination, the result would either be a win for the Republicans, especially if they can ‘broker’ Trump out, or a win for a Third Party candidate, like Mike Bloomberg. Bernie Sanders is like Jeremy Corbyn, popular with radicals, but unelectable by the mainstream.
@John Marriott – all recent polling shows that Sanders comfortably beats Trump, Cruz and Rubio in head-to-head contests. More interestingly, he does so by a larger margin than Clinton manages against any of them.
Yes Paul I wrote the article before the Michigan result (which I had called before the networks last night 🙂 ). I think the Michigan result was a shock for Hillary’s campaign. However, you’re missing several key facts:
1) Michigan delegates were distributed proportionally, so Bernie didn’t make much headway on the delegate count.
2) By contrast Hillary thrashed Bernie in Mississippi last night, so overall Hillary extended her delegate count lead, by around 22 although I haven’t checked the numbers today.
3) Michigan then has 17 superdelegates in a system which is less democratic than Labours old electoral college. The majority of such delegates have been backing Hillary. Its not fair but that’s what’s been happening.
4) To compare Michigan and Florida as you have done shows a lack of understanding of geography (Hillary is polling much better in the south than Bernie) and demographics (far more latinos in Florida).
Just two observations, really,
First, Hillary winning amongst democrats in the South is nice, but pretty pointless electorally when it comes to a general election. Sadly more worrying is that Bernie can’t even win amongst democrats in the South. (Hence why Obama was right to write the south off altogether. .. but that’s another story).
Second, the party colours do look reversed to us today, but the Republicans haven’t always been the most conservative (as defined by us today) in the states.
Paul Murray,
“All recent polling”? Like the polling that predicted a hung parliament last year? What about a Third Party candidate? We aren’t talking Theodore Roosevelt or Ross Perot here. If Saunders were to be the Democrat Party candidate a third challenger could make the difference, especially as what is on offer from the Republicans leaves a lot to be desired. Whoever becomes the next US President will have Congress to deal with.
It makes me wonder when the US will wake up to the fact that its 18th century form of elective kingship doesn’t work any more. The ‘hanging chads’ in Florida back in 2000 were a sign that all is not well in the ‘Land of the Free’.
John
Well said, Go Bernie is a call for a third candidate , if he is the challenger to Trump, and in fact , Trump and him is an invitation to two more, a moderate Democrat , and Republican!
Mike Bloomberg has announced he won’t be running as a third party candidate, and the window for anyone else to do it is very short because of the work that would be needed to get onto the ballot in all 50 states (or even just enough to be a serious contender). Anyone who wanted to do it and stand even a vague chance would also need either a large pile of liquid assets to fund a campaign or the ability to raise a lot of money very quickly.
This is a good tracker of how candidates are doing, compared to how well they’d need to do to win the nomination: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/ Sanders’ problem is that even when he wins over Clinton, they’re narrow victories, while she’s piling up delegates well above her target when she wins.
And the party colours gave only been fixed since 2000, when coverage of the Bush-Gore count started referring to red states and blue states. Before that, both parties tended to use a variety of red, white and blue combinations.
Thanks for the 538 Nick, ain’t nobody better than Nate Silver in the polling business on this side of the pond. Bears out exactly what I’ve been saying.
Of more interest next week will be Ohio where I’d expect Bernie to be stronger than in Florida.
Off to a debate party now to watch Bernie and Hillary. Certainly it will be better than the Republican what size is your willy speaking contest? (No seriously this came up).
On party and state colours I remember red being used for Republican and Blue for Democrat both statewide in MA and nationwide when I was helping John Kerry hold his Senate seat in 1996.
Come on Bernie Sanders.
Florida democratic debate now starting. Media asking whether Bernie will concentrate on Ohio or Illinois next week. Hillary camp in Florida taking nothing for granted in Michigan.
Oh, and plenty of cake going round this debate party I find myself embedded in 😊
That should say in Florida, after Michigan above (can you tell I’m in a bar on a phone??? 🙂 ).
Tsar Nicholas: Hillary when questioned on indictment at the Miami debate just now: “It isn’t going to happen. I’m not even going to answer the question.”
Colin Powell was cited on the whole issue of retroactive classification in the debate.
“The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” – Stalin
Stalin’s cynical comment is shockingly true of the US today as the link below proves. That no-one from the top drawer of either main party wants to make it an issue strongly suggests that they see vote fraud as little more than an extension of the endemic gerrymandering, just another ‘useful’ way of securing the bankrupt electoral duopoly in perpetuity.
No wonder the US is in a mess, in thrall to Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex and their ceaseless (but very profitable wars) while tens of millions have no medical cover and jobs are moving overseas. That’s why the establishment is getting a run for its money from both sides. Good luck to the insurgents I say.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/02/stealing-election-easier-thought.html
Hillary around 65%, Bernie 35%. Hillary ahead by around 500,000 votes in Florida. We didnt just win down here as I predicted, we stormed it!
At the victory party in Orlando. A LOT of very useful Connect data gathered today for the General in the fall.
Follow up article:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/postcard-from-orlando-hillary-sweeps-the-board-in-florida-and-ohio-49817.html
Latest article with yesterday’s developments in the Democratic nomination race:
https://www.the-newshub.com/us-politics/breaking-news-3-important-developments-in-the-democratic-nomination