That poll in the Independent which showed Leave with a 10 point lead should concentrate our minds. We have a lot of work to do over the next 11 days and, frankly, it’s time to drop everything that isn’t absolutely vital and get ourselves out there making the case for Remain, even more than we have done already. I know Liberal Democrats probably more than any other group of people have thrown their backs into it, particularly south of the border, but whatever we are doing, we need to do more and ask very unreasonable things of ourselves over the next few days. It’s not exaggerating to say that the future not just of this country, but the whole European continent, is in jeopardy.
The poll in question comes with a caveat because it didn’t have a “don’t know” option so it’s indicative really of people’s gut reactions at this time not, perhaps, of what they will actually do a week on Thursday. However, the overall state of the polling leads us right into the middle of squeaky bum territory.
Our #EUref rolling (7pt) averages so far w/ the latest Opinium and YouGov polls:
Remain: 44.1%
Leave: 45.0% pic.twitter.com/lXVd0JC6RJ— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 12, 2016
It’s too close for comfort and Leave only need a one vote margin.
I’ve been here before, though. At the same stage before the Scottish Referendum, a poll put Yes slightly ahead, leading to a frenzy of activity. While No won out in the end, it was a very scary time. I was shocked by quite how emotional I felt about it. The atmosphere on the “front line” was pretty awful, with those of us who were campaigning for a no vote being told, variously, that we were stupid or treacherous. That came as a shock at the time, as it is now to some Remain campaigners who are experiencing the same thing from Brexiteers. Young Remain campaigners in the West Country were told yesterday, for example, that they were traitors and should be executed. That’s a glimpse into the minds of some of the people we are dealing with and it’s not an attractive one. If anything, this campaign is even worse.
Part of the reason I was so against Scottish independence was the uncertainty around our future membership of the EU. Being a citizen of the EU is an important part of my identity. I really don’t want to lose it. I definitely don’t want to lose it because people believe the lies that the Leave campaign are telling. So, this campaign is quite emotional too. There is a huge amount at stake and I really, really don’t like the thought of the country we would become if we succumbed to the narrow-minded isolationism of the Leave campaign. Brittie No Mates trying to forge her way in an increasingly complex world is not an appealing thought.
When we got to this stage in the Scottish Referendum, I wrote a piece saying what we needed to do in the last few days. Many of these principles apply now.
We need to make people smile
The first principle then is that we have to find the passion and positivity and fun that has been lacking from this campaign. This is what I wrote then.
I want to hear from people who can articulate that positive, reforming message and take people with them. Charles Kennedy is good at it. Jim Wallace has actually brought in some pretty bold reforms in his time. Nobody articulates the passion for social justice better than young Labour MSP Kezia Dugdale. She was fantastic in the last televised debate last week. There are still hard arguments to be won on currency because no option that the SNP has put forward is as good as using the pound from within the UK. I’m not suggesting we should abandon the facts completely. We can’t let Yes off the hook, but we have to inject some passion and fun into the campaign.
Funnily enough, that young Labour MSP is now the Labour leader in Scotland.
We need more than a war of attrition amongst senior Tories, because the more they kick lumps out of each other, the less people feel like this has anything to do with them. We need to show people why this matters for peace, for jobs and trade.
How do you solve a problem like David?
A year and a half on, and the Prime Minister is no greater an asset. Then, I wrote:
The last thing that Scots need is David Cameron, a man that most of us have no time for at all, doing that. I know he’s the Prime Minister and should be seen to be fighting for the UK, but there is a very good reason Alex Salmond wanted to debate him. There does need to be an emotional appeal, though and we should look to national treasures rather than anyone else to deliver it.
In fact, Scots remember how he passed up the chance to uplift and reunite a divided nation before the ink was dry on the referendum result.
Cameron has failed to inspire and, frankly, there seems no chance of him doing so in this campaign as I wrote the other day. We need to cast our net to see who can.
During the Scottish referendum, Shirley Williams spent the last week campaigning for a No vote. It was extraordinary to see how well she is respected, particularly amongst that group of older people who are more likely to vote Leave. One of the best moments of a dismal campaign for me was when she came to Dunfermline and a Yes campaigner came up and said how much she’d almost admired her. Stronger In could do a lot worse than to get her on the telly a LOT in the next few days.
A reforming state of mind
Please don’t confuse my wanting to stay in the EU with an acceptance of the status quo. I’m a liberal. We shake things up. It’s what we’re for. We challenge established authority. We give power away. It’s our instinct. For me, the priority is a liberal, compassionate, caring society What’s on offer from the Leave campaign puts so much of what we rely on in terms of trade and jobs, in jeopardy without offering anything other than a dubious prospect of “control.” Those who would suffer most if it all goes wrong are the most vulnerable. And given that the Institute of Fiscal Studies says that Brexit would be bad for the economy and would mean more austerity, those people would lose an awful lot of support and services.
There is much that needs to be done to reform our democracy at every level – the EU, strangely enough, is probably the least of our priorities in that score. At the moment we have a government with a mandate from a quarter of the electorate doing all it can to stitch up power for itself. Its boundary reforms give the Tories an inbuilt advantage and with Labour being as abjectly useless as they are at the moment, it looks like they are going to be around for a while. If people really want control, they should look to our own democratic arrangements now.
Dealing with the Leave campaign’s lies, spurious claims and lack of plan
Leave’s lies are gaining traction and they have to be rebutted. However, if you can’t get people listening to you by inspiring them, you won’t be able to get through to them. Their £350 million a week figure is as proven hogwash as it’s possible to get. Willie Rennie called on Leave to pulp their election address which showed an arrow suggesting that 76 million Turkish people were headed for Scotland.
Leave hasn’t got a clue what a post-Brexit Britain looks like. To give the SNP credit, at least they produced a massive house brick shaped thing which outlined their vision, in as much detail as telling us that the time would be the same in an independent Scotland. In contrast, Leave just want us to stop outside into a fog wearing dark glasses without even access to a satnav. Are we going to be like Norway, Canada or Albania, all of whom have less than we do at the moment? They don’t know and they don’t know how we can get there.
They tell us that of course the EU would let us have access to the single market because it would be in their interests. I’ll have to try that on my gym. Maybe I can leave and ask them to let me still use the facilities on the same or better terms than the people who continue to pay.
Be visible
It is so important that every community sees Remain campaigners out and about. On every single occasion when I’ve been out, people have been asking questions and saying that they are really struggling with the decision. A few minutes’ gentle and respectful conversation is all it usually takes to take them over to a Remain vote. We need to have millions of such conversations in the next 11 days. Be out there every minute you can. This really matters and we can make a difference.
I really don’t want to sit up through the night on 23rd June wishing I’d done more to avert a Brexit vote. We can do this – and we must.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings. You can find her on Bluesky at caronmlindsay.bsky.social
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No, Leave didn't win the Brexit referendum because of Northern working class voters
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54 Comments
Good article Caron. Whenever I hear the latest scare from Osborne or Cameron, I can sense the leave vote going up. Where is Stuart Rose, supposed head of the remain campaign ? There has been no genuine cross party campaign – Just two sides of the Conservatives fighting it out. Labour as in Scotland can’t work with others, the Tories don’t want to.
Where has there been any Lib Dem input into the Remain Campaign ? (beyond turning up on que when told to). Never again must the party sign up to fight someone else battle.
Stuart rose is being quoted by the Leave campaign because of something he said to a committee of the House of Commons. Wage levels should always take into account inflation to give a net figure.
Nigel Farage MEP and David Cameron MP were on the Andrew Marr Show. Cameron now has “a self-denying ordinance” against personal attacks for this campaign. There may be a rebound from leaflets attacking Nigel Farage. One arrived on our doorstep.
We thought the cartoon was funny.
It also said
“We belong in Europe both in our geography and through our history. Most of the so-called drawbacks to our membership are exaggerated. The balance of advantage is heavily in favour of staying IN. ”
DON’T RISK THROWING IT AWAY!
Y-EU.org
Caron
I agree that “Leave hasn’t got a clue what a post-Brexit Britain looks like” the problem is that “remain” don’t seem to have a clue what a future EU looks like. They have the majority of politicians and businessmen on their side, they are using government money and civil servants, but their campaign so far has been absolutely hopeless.
@malc
The shape of the EU is defined by the treatises. Any fundamental change would require renegotiation – a problem that Cameron encountered. A problem the EU might have as the euro zone further integrates – out of neccessity. I haven’t read them. I doubt many people have.
Is this really a good time for Caron to remind everyone that the Liberal Democrats were part of the scaremongering and dishonest no campaign two years ago and as such, campaigned for Scotland to be a peripheral region in an isolationist UK instead of an independent nation at the heart of the EU?
The lesson that even if you narrowly win the vote that way, you will lose the aftermath, has not been learned.
A lot of people are seeing what’s happening to those across Europe living under the fist of austerity and want our democracy back, even if it means waiting another four years to kick the Tories out. Then we have a chance to introduce a fair voting system and fair economics, with all the progressive parties creeping onboard, and even Ukip. Brexit Britain doesn’t have to be a capitalist haven, we can decide that. What we can’t do is fundamentally reform the EU: the past 24 years have shown that.
I predict that politics in Brexit Britain will be highly polarized.
This is good positive suggestions from Caron – but where do you go to help with “being out there” (I live in a city with a LIb Dem MP so i’ve contacted them).
“Please don’t confuse my wanting to stay in the EU with an acceptance of the status quo. I’m a liberal. We shake things up. It’s what we’re for. We challenge established authority. ”
But when it comes to the EU the Lib Dems do very little of this. Apart from something occasional about stopped the twin site nonsense I can’t recall any Lib Dem campaign calling for the repeal or substantive reform of any EU legislation. The Lib Dems have been more the EUs representatives to the people than the other way round
@hywel Well, for a start, the Lib Dems have been at the forefront of trying to get the EU to stop this ridiculous trek to Strasbourg once a month.
We’ve also shaped EU legislation. Actually a huge amount of it is actually quite good, especially the bits that give better consumer rights, and abolish roaming charges.
What would you like to repeal?
How are the Lib Dems fixed for an October 2016 General Election?
Isn’t it time to look post-referendum?
Today there is much mention of secret plans for an EU Army, post the Referendum. I have no idea whether an EU Army would be A Good Thobg or not but for those who disagree with having an EU Army, this seems to me to be an important reason for the UK to vote Remain, to exercise our veto on things we do not want the EU to do. With Britain out of the EU we will have no say on things which may have a huge impact on our citizens and which the EU will press on with, if we are not at the table to stop them. David Cameron should say ” keep us in Europe so that I can go there and VETO the EU Army and VETO Turkey ever getting in.
A lot of what comes next will depend on how close the vote is, how it divides along party lines and what it shows demographically. It will not be business as usual whatever the result is. A lot of people thought the No vote in Scotland would damage the SNP. It boosted them and has changed Scottish politics for the foreseeable future.
@Phyllis ” keep us in Europe so that I can go there and VETO the EU Army and VETO Turkey ever getting in.”
Do Lib Dems (and David Cameron) want to veto Turkey ever getting in?
Clegg called it a “strategic necessity” and Cameron said he would “fight for it”.
Surely a Turkey that satisfied the requirements of EU membership would be a good thing?
Disagree , though sympathise with Conor and Hywel , leaving makes a lot of sense if you think the EU is beyond reform , but I do not believe it is thus !
Agree , though again sympathise with Caron re her feeling for the EU , which I do not share , although shall vote to remain precisely because I believe only with Britain can it reform !
And so back to Carons dislike of Cameron even on this , again . I would have thought after years of cross party agreement on protecting our UK and EU , that seeing an ally for being that very thing , would leave at least a sense of kinship on the specific issue , rather than grudging acceptance that you have to share the same side !
What does “being at the forefront mean” besides issueng the occasional press release. Where is the campaign, the petition, the social media initiatives, using what procedural devices have been used to push this issue to the forefront, have Lib Dem MEPs ever obstructed measures the French want as a protest or to get them to yeild on this, have they ever advocated opposing any measures at new treaty time unless this was resolved. AFAIK No.
Scrapping things – well the banana regulations for one. There are also an number of things around food regulations that are completely unecessary and way beyond what is needed for a single market (eg tomatoes to be presented in packages of the same size, minimum sizes for strawberries).
Look at how weak/non existant the LIb Dem position on reform has been over the years. This is a summary of the proposals in the 2014 Euro Manifesto in the reform section:
An In/Out referendum after a future treaty (UK Parliament decision)
Cutting waste – end the Strasbourg/Brussels shuttle and some unspecificed reduce admin costs and audit EU agencies – the only specific is abolishing the Economic and Social Committee
Protect the UK’s influence in the single market – “call for a guarantee in the next European
Union treaty that member states both inside and outside the Euro-zone have a full voice in the regulation and application of the single market.” (ie something for future treaty negotiations)
Strengthening scrutiny at Westminster (a UK government role)
Promote British talent in Brussels – more Commission staff to come from the UK.
That comes down to five things – two of which are UK Government decisions and nothing to do with MEPs or EU institutions. There is one actual specific proposal for something MEPs can influence and a couple of more abstract things. It’s a pretty thin list!
Here we go again, “Brxit don’t know what Brexit looks like”. They do, but of course becsuse it is the EEA option which includes the four freedoms of movement they dare not say or their UKIP-type vote will desert them. You may think this is dishonourable. It is. But it is real politick.
Here are a couple of things Schäuble told de Speigel: “Britain is one of the strongest economies in the EU, and London is Europe’s largest financial centre. Britain plays a leading role in all matters of foreign and security policy. That is why Europe is stronger with Britain than without it. Besides, the UK consistently advocates market-based solutions in Brussels, which frequently makes it an ally of the German government. And, in my view, one cannot have enough British pragmatic rationality in Europe.”
And “If the British do actually vote to leave the EU, it will be important to remain calm and offer the markets some orientation on which way the road will lead. Then we would have to say: “We now have a decision that we did not want, but let’s make the best of it”. There would still be no reason for panic.”
But he is wrong to think that a Brexit vote is a vote to leave the single market. It isn’t. It is a vote to leave the EU and the Pro-single market majority is free to go down the EEA route.
So, what about this gym membership argument then? EU members are not in it for the membership fees they get from UK membership – it is the trade they want. As Sir James Dyson has said, we buy circa £100 billion more from the EU members than they buy from us. They are NOT going to slap a 10% tarrff on our goods knowing that we would slap a 10% tariff on their goods.
That has been what has been wrong about the remain’s negative campaigning. It has been juvenile university politics and not the subtle black art that they needed to be proficient in. But then look who they employed! Repeating their trite arguments here beggar’s belief.
What are the pro EU arguments that an EEA route does not answer? Better to use our power, reputation and influence to help the single marketeers and free traders build the new post EU Liberal Britain.
@Bill le Breton
Like it or not a Brexit vote will be a vote against the free movement of people. If we try to go down the EEA route UKIP will surge on the back of a Brexit majority that will feel, with some justification, that they have been betrayed by the political establishment. I fear we could end up with UKIP in government in 2020.
I have dropped everything and concentrated on the referendum. I was out delivering Brexit leaflets for the umpteenth time. It’s called democracy.
@Jane “I have dropped everything and concentrated on the referendum. I was out delivering Brexit leaflets for the umpteenth time. It’s called democracy.” – bravo
Jane 12th Jun ’16 – 7:04pm This confuses democracy with sovereignty. Start by defining the relevant area as the UK, then argue in a circle until you get back to where you started.
In reality the UK has substantial devolution, to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd, the Northern Ireland Assembly. They come with international links. when the SNP got an MEP their policy changed, with better information. After lengthy negotiations Northern Ireland has improved links with the Republic of Ireland, which in turn counts the number of people of Irish descent in the USA, just as Scotland has with Canada. Wales has become the part of the UK which has benefitted most from Japanese investment.
I am reading The Borderless World by Kenikchi Ohmae, managing Director in Japan of McKinsey and international consulting firm. ISBN 0-00-215875-2, published 1990, thinking long term. Highly influential.
@Caron
There is very little to be afraid of if we Brexit, so it’s not the same as the independence referendum where Scotland would have been in an awful state if we left.
As a liberal with strong liberal principles I’m in favour of Brexit, the European Union is not democratic so as a liberal I can’t accept it. I’m also 100% against the absolute disgrace that is the European Arrest Warrant.
As someone who cares about social justice I am appalled at the way the establishment have used immigration to drive up the price of housing and drive down the cost of unskilled labour – benefiting the well off at the expense of those with very little.
How a party that claims to be liberal can be in favour of the EU is beyond me and if remain win I will start voting UKIP and hope all the other Brexiters do as well if we remain.
@Bill le Breton “Here we go again, “Brxit don’t know what Brexit looks like”.”
To a certain extent, I always think this is an unfair criticism of the Brexit campaign, in much the same way as Bremain don’t know what Bremain looks like.
Neither side of the debate is a political party, and inside or outside the EU, the UK after either Brexit or Bremain will depend upon the nature of the government(s) we elect. Interestingly, Labour are referring to a Tory Brexit, and refusing to campaign alongside Cameron because a Labour Bremain would look very different to a Tory one (in theory, if not in practice!).
Having painted themselves unreservedly as the “party of in”, I am unclear what a Lib Dem Bremain would look like (as Nick Clegg said, “I suspect it will be quite similar to what it is now.”) or what Lib Dems would do in the event of Brexit. Divisions in the Labour and Conservative parties (and a possible lack of commitment in the Labour leadership) could allow them to present themselves as “winners” (with a few casualties) whatever the outcome of the referendum.
@ Rightsaidfredfan “There is very little to be afraid of if we Brexit, so it’s not the same as the independence referendum where Scotland would have been in an awful state if we left”.
The daft thing about that comment is that a Brexit vote is much more likely to result in a further Scottish Referendum and with it an even bigger chance that Scotland will break away from the little Englanders.
Be interesting to know which country Right said Fred is digging his hole in….. because he sure as heck knows nothing about what is going on in Scotland.
@Caron “Well, for a start, the Lib Dems have been at the forefront of trying to get the EU to stop this ridiculous trek to Strasbourg once a month.”
Catherine Bearder stated very clearly to Paxman that it won’t stop as it requires treaty change and therefore some countries will have to have a referendum and nobody wants that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07c6n58/paxman-in-brussels-who-really-rules-us
@david raw.
The SNP don’t get to call another referendum, only Westminster can grant holyrood a referendum on independence.
I believe that if there is a second referendum the result will be the same as last time.
Hmmm – we panned ourselves in supposedly acting in the national interest in the five years of coalition and got deservedly smashed in 2015. We now have a blue on blue battle that see both sides running uninspiring negative campaigns personalised a each other and jockeying to be the next leader. And yet what’s left of the Lib Dems is supposed to stop what they are doing to save Cameron’s bacon. No thanks I’ll deliver a party invote to our new members and work on the post June 23rd Focus that campaigns on issues that will hopefully boost support for this party – not another.
Rightsaidfredfan, I completely agree with you up to the point of saying you’ll vote Ukip in the event of a Remain vote. How are they any more liberal than the EU? We might have a long way to go as a Liberal party with radical and liberal policies, but throwing your lot in with Farage is not the way to get there!
AndrewR, that is not what this poll by the ASI sugggestshttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
2 to 1 support for EEA option.
This possibly better link http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/11/uk-voters-back-norway-style-brexit-poll-reveals/
Caron wrote:
“We shake things up. It’s what we’re for. We challenge established authority.”
Hywell then replied
“But when it comes to the EU the Lib Dems do very little of this.”
But then rather lost the argument when he drifted on to EU legislation which was “quite good”, according to Caron and started to talk about bananas! I doubt there’ll be many referendum votes won or lost on banana regulations!
The real point should be about challenging “established authority”. We saw what that was in Greece last year when there was a real crisis to resolve. So why, if the EU is so democratic, wasn’t the European Parliament the established authority? Why didn’t they appoint a delegation to send to Athens?
Why was it a Germany vs Greece dispute with German politicians, and not elected to the EU parliament, calling the EU shots?
Peter Watson 12th Jun ’16 – 3:14pm
“@Phyllis ” keep us in Europe so that I can go there and VETO the EU Army and VETO Turkey ever getting in.”
Do Lib Dems (and David Cameron) want to veto Turkey ever getting in?
Clegg called it a “strategic necessity” and Cameron said he would “fight for it”.
Surely a Turkey that satisfied the requirements of EU membership would be a good thing?”
Well quite! there, in a nutshell, is the Remain side’s problem. They have no clear narrative (because these things are complex) and the narrative they do have is contradicted by their earlier pronouncements.
Caron … spot-on!
As ever, Rod Liddle hits the nail on the head.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/magazine/the-sunday-times-magazine/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p
I really wish Tim Farron and Co were as anti-establishment on the EU as they appear on politics, the banks and civil liberties back home.
The problem I have with regard to the ‘Leave’ argument is in whose interest any ‘Exit’ negotiations will be for?
If in on the 24th June, there is a vote to leave who will be negotiating? If the likes of Johnson, Gove, IDS etc who are part of this Conservative Government, then who in their right mind honestly believes that they have the ‘interests’ of the Public at heart.
What say will the Public have? When negotiations are complete, then will be there be another referendum held outlining what has been agreed and if the British Public agree to these terms? – I know the answer, NO!
Any negotiations on exiting the EU, I fear will not be done in the interests of the Public, but in the interests of what is best for business and the wealthy and as we have seen in recent weeks, just how rotten British business can be with the likes of Sports Direct and BHS. It will be in the interests of these type of people that any agreement will benefit!
“Caron wrote:
“We shake things up. It’s what we’re for. We challenge established authority.”
Hywell then replied
“But when it comes to the EU the Lib Dems do very little of this.”
But then rather lost the argument when he drifted on to EU legislation which was “quite good”, according to Caron and started to talk about bananas! I doubt there’ll be many referendum votes won or lost on banana regulations!”
I think you misunderstand the point at issue between Caron and myself. We are both pro-remain (already voted in fact). The issue was over how the Lib Dems campaign (or not) on Europe. I doubt the referendum will be decided over regulations on bananas or any other soft fruit – or even the twin site of the Parliament. But it is something that would be fertile campaigning ground for Lib Dems – and would be a natural campaign issue (over-bureaucratisation) in Westminster.
Indeed the party made an issue of asking people which (Westminster) laws they would want to scrap in around 2007 – why no similar approach over the EU.
Rightsaidfredfan
As someone who cares about social justice I am appalled at the way the establishment have used immigration to drive up the price of housing and drive down the cost of unskilled labour – benefiting the well off at the expense of those with very little.
Oh, that’s the line that the people who run and fund Brexit give to the plebs.
Among themselves, however, what they really don’t like about the EU is the restrictions it imposes on extreme free market, and that includes immigration. They want to be able to bring in more immigrants from non-EU countries as they will be willing to live in even more crowded conditions and work for even lower wages.
Most people who vote Leave will be voting for the opposite of what they think they are voting for. The idea that it will lead to the British people having democratic control of their lives is nonsense. Extreme free market policies and passing of control from governments to international corporation has long ended that, power has shifted from elected governments to the global wealthy elite. The only way to combat that is international co-operation. The people funding and running Brexit do so because they don’t like that sort of thing. They want government to be weak so that power is firmly in the hands of the global wealthy.
Me
Among themselves, however, what they really don’t like about the EU is the restrictions it imposes on extreme free market
As for the line used against this, “if that is the case, why are Cameron, Osborne and many big business leaders in favour of remaining in the EU?”, the more pragmatic of the economic right can see that the general economic benefits of the EU outweigh the control it has over extreme free markets. It is those at the extremist end of the economic right who are funding and running Brexit. It’s the shadier end of big business, those who business is spivery, the wealth absorbers not the wealth creators, who want Brexit.
If governments since Thatcher had shown themselves more willing to tackle the effects of free markets on the lives of the population, maybe people would be less cynical about the benefits of remaining.
The Sports Direct , BHS businesses operated whilst we were in the common market. People see London bought up and their chance of home ownership long gone because of an economy funded by people using what they believe are shady people using money from dubious sources. Until they see an economy that works for them rather themselves working for an economy that works for the top 1%, the remain arguments will not cut through.
It is not just the working class left behinds who are voting for leave, the middle class are too. I have been surprised by those from the generation before mine who say they are voting leave, this includes some members of the Green Party.
I agree with you Matthew that things will get worse after Brexit, but there are others whose experience of living in modern Britain, causes them to blame the power that big corporations have over their lives on the EU rather than National Government..
@ Jayne Mansfield How dare you right that !!!!!!!!!!!!!! You’ve taken the very words out of my mouth. Well done !
PS Ooops – delete right – insert write.
Jayne Mansfield
It shocks me to think that people believe that Brexit will be a better option, given the backgrounds and rhetoric and political origins of those leading the Outers!!?
People need to understand that different ideologies are at play at all levels of politics. It is not as if all the politicos, in and out haven’t had periods of power – they could have done or worked for plenty. I include Farage in particular in this – absolutely nothing in his time as an MEP apart from waffle and stand on a soapbox (sorry, and spend his expenses).
@ Tim13,
I am shocked too Tim, not least by the effect the propaganda is having on me. I just have to keep pulling myself back.
My husband is currently for ‘leave’. The people I mention, including the Green Party members, are all using the argument about ‘Democracy ‘ as a reason for their decision to leave, so maybe activists should put more effort into that argument.
It really says something when they are able to overcome their distaste for Farage and Co. and make the decision they are planning to make.
The only remotely encouraging sign for Remain at the moment is that the bookies – who are generally much better at predictions than the economists we keep hearing about – still make Remain favourites, though not by much and the odds are drifting. Given the state of the polls and the fact that all surveys show Leave supporters to be massively more committed than Remainers, I’m surprised at this, but hopefully they know something we don’t!
Something that I think needs stressing is this. A Leave vote will not mean the immediate end of worker protections, human rights, and other rights. The only thing that will lead to that will be if we continue with a situation where the centre/centre-left is split hopelessly into three or four warring factions, incapable of working together, and the Tories get a clear run at determining what a post-Leave Britain looks like. That would be the real diasater, not what may happen next week.
Hywel: “
Our MEP(s) did a lot of it, but it was all shouting into the wind because the media ignored them, and for the most part so did the party establishment, which in its approach to the EU basically supports the conspiracy of silence in this country’s media and political establishment on the European Parliament and EU-level party politics.
Even in the 2014 Euro election campaign, there was almost nothing on the work of our MEPs. Instead the party chose to put our WESTMINSTER leader at the head of the campaign, and he chose to be a spokesman for the EU status quo (because, hey, we’re in government now so we are part of the establishment now) and fight the campaign on Farage’s preferred territory. Clegg AGREED WITH FARAGE that MEPs don’t matter and that the only options for the EU are uncritical support or withdrawal. The “Party of IN” campaign was a major strategic error because MEPs don’t decide a country’s place in the EU: they legislate for the EU as a whole, so our campaign should have focused on what our MEPs had done AS LIBERALS to realise a more liberal EU. We should also have given our MEP candidates a lot more prominence. And Clegg should have taken a back seat — indeed it would have better to say “Nick isn’t on the ballot paper” in that election as we needed to emphasise the independence of our MEPs from what happened at Westminster — a Coalition-free Zone, in which we advanced undiluted Lib Dem policy, and Tories were allied with raving-right extremists who (for instance) support marital rape and oppose tackling climate change. And before anyone says “no-one cares” what MEPs vote on, the VERY REASON “no-one cares” is that our politicians ignore it. We had a Lib Dem manifesto for the European election, as well as the ALDE manifesto, but the party hierarchy decided we were not to campaign on them, but instead be just the “Party of IN”. As well as failing to give people a reason to vote Lib Dem, we also failed to use one of the best opportunities to differentiate us from the Tories when in Coalition.
The point is that the reason we don’t as a party say much about what we want to change in the EU and how we would use our political strength as liberals to achieve it in the EU institutions is not that we are so pro-EU that we’ll accept anything it does, but that our party leadership and campaign people are too timid to challenge the conspiracy of silence on EU affairs; too timid to attempt to move the debate away from the place that the Eurosceptics have put it, where defending the EU means defending whatever policy is allegedly advanced in its name. By talking about European issues in European elections (and I mean issues like trade, the CAP, civil liberties etc, that MEPs vote on) we could have shifted the debate. Now it may be too late.
@Stuart “… the Tories get a clear run at determining what a post-Leave Britain looks like.”
You raise an important and interesting point, and we should also remember that the Tories might get a clear run at determining what a post-Remain Britain will look like. I think the lack of positive campaigning means that we are unclear what Britain would look like after either Brexit or Bremain, largely because people on both sides have tried to conceal their very different and conflicting visions of the UK after their preferred result.
Whatever the result of the referendum, it looks like the winning side will not have a clear or decisive mandate. In or Out, things look messy after a close victory. The losing side will not disappear without a fight and I am sure there will be political casualties amongst the winners and the losers.
One particular possibility intrigues me though: people have speculated on a second independence referendum in Scotland if England drags them out of the EU, but what if a close result means that Scotland makes England stay in?
Alex – I agreee with a lot of what you say. But even if we had campaigned on the party’s manifesto for the EU elections it said very little about any sort of reform agenda. When Nick infamously said in the debate with Farage that he saw the EU in 10 years time as being much the same as it was now that was an accurate reflection of the party’s position
Matthew Huntbach
Very good argument , and exposition and distinction within it .The identification of “the extreme economic right” ,as worse than ,and noticable as such , compared to the norms of, the usual “economic right” , creates a need for it to be called “the economic wrong !”
You have a stance perceived as consistently to the left within our party , some have , mistakenly , perceived me as to the right within it . What is true , far more than these out dated labels , is that unity and friendly discourse go hand in hand , and room for strong , robust views ,and agreement and or mutual shared concerns and solutions, are to be encouraged where the issue gets the goat of any of us who are Liberal Democrats!
Environment, economics, rights, immigration, etc, all subsidiary to sovereignty and independence issues. You can be EUsceptic as a LibeDem without being Eurosceptic. Naive to believe the direction of the EU will lead to improvement and not take more power away from the people. At its heart, it is politically driven over and above any perceived economic and social benefit – as consequences of blind loyalty to euro demonstrates.
UK needs to be a force for good, alongside our European friends, able to make urgent decisions speedily where necessary; while adapting to implications and impact of growing globalisation of our world. Locked into a political union of some description, with compromised influence, is not necessary for this objective.
Leave is not just a Tory driver. This notion misrepresents the reality of cross and none party allegiance to the principle of ‘taking back control while we have a chance’. We need now to concentrate rather on picking up the ongoing challenge to robustly fight for our own sovereign parliament to make the laws we feel are for the common good, as we have historically, and not rely on a super-state-ish misunderstanding of internationalism. Vote to leave the EU, but remain friends with Europe; they will adapt.
If you’re in two minds over the referendum, and want another view, then former Lib Dem MP Paul Keetch makes a great case for leave.