Lib Dem Fiona Bennett became our 13th Councillor in Edinburgh at just before midnight on Thursday, securing our highest ever vote in a local government by-election in Scotland. We are now the second largest group on the Council behind the SNP’s 17, Labour’s 11, Greens’ 10 and Conservatives 9.
Here’s Alex Cole-Hamilton gloating talking about it on yesterday’s Good Morning Scotland ahead of our Conference in Dundee.
Last night saw the biggest council by election victory in the party's history in Edinburgh.
The sands of Scottish politics are shifting in big and unpredictable ways.
By-elections and the council elections last year show that the Liberal Democrats will be part of what's next. pic.twitter.com/EVSYZVOzsz
— Scottish Lib Dems (@scotlibdems) March 10, 2023
Fiona becomes the 3rd councillor in the 3 member Corstorphine/Murrayfield ward which is in Christine Jardine’s Westminster constituency and Alex Cole-Hamilton’s Holyrood seat. She gained the seat in the by-election caused by the resignation of SNP former Lord Provost Frank Ross.
I'm going to get a t-shirt with 4,577 on it and this pie chart…
Liberal Democrats (Fiona Bennett): 4,577 [56.7%, +6.2%]
—
SNP: 1,086 [13.3%, -5.4%]
Conservative: 788 [9.6%, -6.3%]
Labour: 568 [7.0%, -0.9%]
Others: [13%] pic.twitter.com/jYuosqQV32— ALDC (@ALDC) March 10, 2023
Fiona Bennett the Liberal Democrat candidate has been elected as the third LibDem in the Corstorphine/Murrayfield Ward and the 63rd councillor on @Edinburgh_CC – She says she wants to concentrate on getting the potholes fixed. The LibDems however increased the funds for 1/2 pic.twitter.com/qxa2grJ150
— Edinburgh Reporter (@EdinReporter) March 10, 2023
The unexpected passing of the Lib Dem budget two weeks ago means that she will have £11 million for pothole fixing. Which is a good thing. I almost got a concussion as the bus drove over the potholes on Corstorphine Road yesterday on my way to work.
As Christine Jardine told Scottish Conference in her best M and S ad voice yesterday, this is not just representation, this is Lib Dem representation.
The result was particularly stunning as there was a 42% turnout on one of the coldest, snowiest days of Winter. Despite that, our teams struggled through, knocking people up. They had spoken to 8000 people since the by-election was called in January. Edinburgh West Lib Dems do not take any voters for granted.
Long Covid has minimised my involvement but I managed a couple of hours phone knocking up on Thursday and it was the easiest I had ever done. The few who had forgotten were very keen to go out in the freezing cold to vote for Fiona.
Huge congratulations to Fiona, campaign manager Robin Chappell, Council Group Leader Kevin Lang, fellow Councillors Euan Davidson and Alan Beal, Marina, Phil and Mhairi who allowed their houses to be used as bases for action days and everyone who delivered all those leaflets.
But that wasn’t the only place we did well yesterday. Look at this great result in Heston West ward in Hounslow – Chaitan Shah took us from zero to 22.3% after a spirited campaign with help from the Lib Dem Campaign for Racial Equality and activists from all over London.
🚨 BY-ELECTION RESULT 🚨
Heston West, Hounslow LBC:
LAB: 52.4% (-11.8%)
LDEM: 22.3% (+22.3%)
CON: 19.9% (-0.6%)
GRN: 3.1% (-12.2%)
IND: 2.3% (+2.3%)Votes cast: 2,106
Labour HOLD.
Huge well done to Chaitan Shah for coming second with a massive increase in vote share! 🔶 pic.twitter.com/hrKdZYF1Zp
— ALDC (@ALDC) March 10, 2023
And Lib Dem Allen Windsor was the biggest gainer in Tottenham Hale.
🚨 BY-ELECTION RESULT 🚨
Tottenham Hale, Haringey LBC:
LAB: 58.7% (-9.4%)
LDEM: 14.6% (+6.6%)
GRN: 13.8% (-1.8%)
CON: 5.8% (-2.5%)
IND: 4.6% (+4.6%)
CPA: 2.5% (+2.5%)Labour HOLD.
Well done to Allen Windsor for standing and achieving the largest increase in vote share! 🔶 pic.twitter.com/0iFYA87wYL
— ALDC (@ALDC) March 10, 2023
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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15 Comments
Delighted though I am at seeing another Lib Dem councillor elected, one needs to be careful in interpreting seat gains in by-elections held under Single Transferable Vote. This particular ward is strongly Liberal Democrat and under FPTP would have easily returned three Lib Dems the last time elections were held. However, and quite rightly, under STV, the third seat in this ward went to the second strongest party, the SNP in this instance. Even if there had been a substantial swing from us to the SNP (there wasn’t) they would still have lost the seat to us. Nor is it likely that we will hold all three seats in this ward next time full elections are held – you should not expect that to happen under proportional representation.
We took votes from everybody. I wonder what the psepholigists make of that. Certainly seem to be recovering in the Celtic fringe.
The results in the two London wards are interesting if not remarkable. Obviously some committed LD campaigning and decreases in the Green vote. This is what happens when the local parties are given more support. Now let’s see the same replicated in other labour facing seats.
I half agree Kevin. It was a gain in so much as there is now one extra LibDem councillor at Edinburgh council and a loss for the SNP because there’s one less of them.
However, you are right that if this result were repeated under full STV, despite the reassuring swing towards us to elect three councillors that we’d get just two LibDems, so not a gain. What’s less obvious is who that third councillor would have been. The most obvious caveat is that most people knew there was just one seat up for grabs this time and the result was a virtual certainty, which would influence campaigners and voters alike, but it’s not at all obvious that the SNP would have got the transfers to take the third seat, which is possibly the most interesting aspect.
@ Kevin and Fiona: the LDs would take all the seats, on Thursday night’s figures, if three were up for grabs.
The 3 seat quota would be about 2040. The LDs have 5761 including preference votes. SNP have 1506. So the third LD would be in ahead of the first SNP. (5761 – 4080 makes 1681.)
@ Chris Moore
A substantial number of votes (about 30%) went to other parties apart from LD and SNP. Who wins the third seat would depend upon how transfers from small parties went. As Fiona rightly points out it is not certain that SNP would take the third seat even though they did last time. Nor is it certain that we would win the third seat, though I accept that it is possible. The point I was trying to make (and perhaps didn’t express it well) is that whereas under FPTP this would be three safe LD seats, under STV it is two safe LD seats and a third highly marginal seat that could go almost any way.
Yes, that is the point, Kevin. There are other parties!
You have to look at the preference votes: where second and third and fourth preferences etc went of the parties eliminated in earlier rounds.
If you do this, you get a total of 5761 for the LDs and 1506 for SNP, after all other parties eliminated.
This gives the LDs all three seats, as already explained. There’s no doubt about it.
In general, if one party has a high percentage of first pref votes and the rest of the vote is spilt rather evenly between other parties, the leading party will win all three seats.
Chris,
The problem with your point is that all three seats were not available in the by-election – Only one. The only time you get all three seats up for re-election would be in May – May 2022, May 2027, May 2032 etc and once all three seats are up for grabs, the SNP know they can win one and will try. When only one is up fro grabs they know it isn’t worth the effort.
Quite simply the thing you are pointing out could occur (all 3 seats won by the Lib Dems simultaneously) could only happen in a circumstance which has zero probability of occurring. Fantasy football is great fun for those who will never manage or play for a real team. Fantasy politics likewise, but it’s not the real world. My advice is don’t spend too much of your time on it.
@Tim Rogers Edinburgh might possibly be majority Celtic (If you think the Picts were Celts) but it’s certainly not fringe.
David, it’s still worth getting it right, isn’t it? These figures reproduced in May 27 would give the LDs all three seats.
You say “zero probabilty” of that happening. Again, that is incorrect. I’d say about 20% possibilty. The local party could make the judgement at the time.
Once your party has dominance in a local area, it can win all three seats. Not fantasy at all. And actually worth considering.
Hi Chris,
My point is that it is not right, because unless you have a rack solid mole in Edinburgh SNP who tells you this result has totally demoralised them and they will not even try in four years time, so leaving the third seat open for us as well, the Lib Dems won’t win all three seats. (Also it would help a lot if Labour, the Greens and the Conservatives felt likewise).
And if you do have a rock solid mole in the SNP who tells you this,I suggest you take what he/she says with a big pinch of salt, or a large dose of Whiskey. I will leave the choice to you.
Hello David,
you possibly don’t know that the local party does have a rock solid mole within the local SNP.
What happened is this: we had a mole. The SNP slipped her some Talpirid Mole Killer (very effective). The mole died, developed rigor mortis and is now a rock solid mole.
In Edinburgh you might want to stick to Whisky rather than Whiskey
My comment on STV and the by-election performance is that the Liberal Democrats would have an excellent chance of holding all 3 seats next time if they maintain 56.7%. The quota to guarantee a seat in a 4 councillor ward using STV is basically 20% (yes, plus 1 vote), so having 3 candidates averaging 18.9% is a very strong position. However, smart campaigning to ensure that each candidate gets a similar number of votes will be needed, including compensating for the fact that the first party candidate alphabetically usually attracts more votes. A very solid base in the city.
Mel, I’m delighted there’s someone else who understands enough about STV to realise the LDs do have a chance if holding all three, particularly as the SNP may be descending at last from its high plateau.