LibLink: Chris Huhne – No reform now means bigger reform later

The Independent on Sunday featured an article by Chris Huhne, the energy secretary, arguing that, while the AV referendum result was clearly a setback for electoral reformers, the pressures that still exist within the system will at some point make change inevitable. Now that such a change has been delayed, Chris argues, when the time for reform does come again, it will be on a much bigger scale than the relatively modest reform that AV would have been.

Here’s a sample:

The problems to which electoral reformers are responding have not gone away and will continue to demand an answer. British society is increasingly pluralist, and the trend to diversity is accelerating. In the Fifties, only 4 per cent of voters rejected Labour and the Tories. Now the figure is a third. Once Labour and the Conservatives dominated our politics. Now Liberal Democrats, Greens,Nationalists and others demand a voice.

The attempt to squeeze diversity into the fraying corset of two-party politics is likely to lead to more and more unfair results. Already, the regional representation of the parties is distorted, with the Tories underrepresented in the north and Scotland despite substantial votes, and Labour similarly anorexic in the south. Both parties speak first to their regional bases, respectively ignoring urban deprivation and aspirational affluence.

Nationally, electoral results are likely to look odder and odder. The last Labour government won a firm overall majority of parliamentary seats with just 36 per cent of the vote, the lowest ever recorded in our parliamentary history. How low will that proportion have to sink before defenders of the status quo confess its illegitimacy?

You can read the piece in full over on the Independent website here.

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14 Comments

  • Adam Corlett 13th May '11 - 4:03pm

    This post – complete with graph – similarly concluded that PR may be inevitable: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/04/25/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-av-through-the-looking-glass/

  • Adam Corlett (with respect) –

    I’m not totally sure that I accept the premise of that link. FPTP has produced hung councils and continues to do so. Surely the 2010 election result shows a system that can produce Coalitions that represent a large part of the electorate? It is also worth noting that a PR system in Scotland has punished Labour, despite their vote holding reasonably static (and yes, there are some qualifications there).

    The stark reality is that a 70:30 referendum is the end of the discussion. What is worrying is the way that some people seemed to have convinced themselves that there is no possibility of any sort ever at all that a significant number of people, fully aware of the pros and cons, are OK with FPTP.

  • “the pressures that still exist within the system will at some point make change inevitable”

    While this is probably true, “at some point” currently means “no sooner than 2021” — and quite possibly years later. Nothing will be done in the lifetime of this Parliament, and nothing will be done in the next Parliament, no matter who wins the 2015 election.

  • “The last Labour government won a firm overall majority of parliamentary seats with just 36 per cent of the vote, the lowest ever recorded in our parliamentary history.”

    They won the majority of the seats, that’s how it works, AV wouldn’t have changed this much, if at all. If PR is what Chris Huhne wants then maybe he should have bloody well argued for it and not accepted the AV referendum.

  • Andrew Suffield 13th May '11 - 7:21pm

    What is worrying is the way that some people seemed to have convinced themselves that there is no possibility of any sort ever at all that a significant number of people, fully aware of the pros and cons, are OK with FPTP.

    That one’s easy. There’s been a whole load of polls over the past decade on this question and they all came back with the same result: the public overwhelmingly hates FPTP.

    That makes it obvious that the referendum result, while it was influenced by many things, was never about FPTP.

    The stark reality is that a 70:30 referendum is the end of the discussion.

    This bit is probably true, however. Electoral reform is now off the table for the next ten years or so.

  • Andrew Suffield 13th May '11 - 11:21pm

    Approval voting is useless for elections from the general population. It only functions when voters are educated and aware of both the full behaviour of the system and the political reality. In reality, the general population has a minimal understanding of their voting system (even FPTP – lot of people don’t understand the “spoiler effect” in detail and how to counter it) and pays very little attention to politics.

    In a situation where you have uneducated voters, approval voting fails most significant criteria for analysing voting systems; it does not reliably select the majority candidate if one exists (that’s the candidate which over 50% of the population want as their “first preference”), it fails IIA (hence it has a big spoiler effect), and it can elect the condorcet loser (that’s the least popular candidate – one which the majority would have preferred anybody else over). That makes it pretty much as bad as FPTP.

    Approval voting is a good system when you’re dealing with an electorate that is highly educated and aware. It is ideal for a society of mathematicians to elect their leader. It is hopeless for selecting a government.

    (Range voting, which that site favours above all others, is rather better – that one actually works. But it’s not proportional. Let’s stick with STV)

  • @Clay

    I’ve not got that much free time today so I’m not going to check up on what criteria these various voting systems, though I would like to say that a voting system breaching the monotonicity criterion is much less of a big deal to me than a voting system breaching the majority criteria – AV/IRV (I prefer the term IRV) can breach monotonicity (which is not very common I have to add) a thousand times for each time approval voting breaches the majority criterion in my view! Plurality voting is completely rubbish but you’re trying to convince people who, by and large, would prefer IRV if they had to be stuck with a single winner method. Which also fixes up the spoiler effect quite nicely.

    I also think there’s a lot of potential for sheer randomness in response (does this candidate get 6 or 7?) with range voting and I’d imagine there’d be “bullet voting” in approval voting – because putting two candidates down might hurt your favoured one and you can’t rank them there’d be an incentive to just put down one.

    Some other concerns I have:

    1) Simplicity is not, in itself, a virtue. Namely because the only truly simple system is just having closed party lists (which may be the third worst voting system, behind FPTP and the bloc vote), even FPTP is complicated because setting up constituencies is a complicated process. Most systems are more complicated than FPTP. Even approval voting. Definitely range voting.

    Besides which, many people learn how to use their vote, even if they don’t know the mechanics inside out. The experiences of devolution show that even when people don’t know how STV or AMS works in detail they still figure out how to use their vote as best they can in them!

    And most systems can be phrased confusingly or simply depending on whether you want to confuse the issue or actually explain it.

    2) Even if you consider simplicity a virtue RRV seems no simpler to me than STV – certainly far more complex than IRV. Asset voting also seems marginally more complex (arithmetic rather than ranking) in terms of the actual ballot, even though the mechanics are simpler.

    3) Many of the attacks used against AV in this referendum would apply equally or moreso to these voting systems. Their (stupid) tagline was – “keep one person one vote” implying (wrongly) that AV gives you multiple votes. With approval voting you have multiple votes, with range voting you don’t but as each point contributes to the score different people will contribute to the result more than others. This would be a genuine attack rather than just mud-slinging if these systems were proposed.

    STV precludes this line of attack in that “single transferable vote” clearly states that everyone only has one vote.

    4) Asset voting is quite clearly not going to go down well, the line of attack is too obvious!

    Ultimately, the mathematics matter, but so do the politics. Approval voting will never fly, asset voting will definitely never fly, range voting probably wouldn’t either, IRV could have under different circumstances with a better run campaign but didn’t – those who were opposed to change were still opposed and those who wanted change thought it to be “tinkering at the edges” rather than actually solving the big problems with FPTP. STV and AMS could, eventually, fly in the UK.

  • Andrew Suffield 14th May '11 - 4:03pm

    perhaps the world’s foremost authority on the subject

    Hah! Hardly. I’m a computer scientist but I follow several subfields of mathematics quite closely, including voting systems. Warren Smith is a noted researcher – but mostly in other branches of mathematics, and is no Nicolaus Tideman or Markus Schulze, and he’ll laugh at you if he finds out you wrote that.

    This is not the appropriate forum for discussing how you have misinterpreted his research.

    Actually, there is evidence that Approval Voting is MORE likely to elect a Condorcet winner (when one exists) than ACTUAL Condorcet methods.

    Painfully wrong; a voting method is a Condorcet method iff it always selects the Condorcet winner where one exists – that’s the definition of the term.

    Score Voting and Approval Voting are the only systems which SATISFY Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives.

    Only in the Nash equilibrium; in the case of ignorant voters (which is the case we are dealing with here) they do not – consider the case where each voter selects only their highest ranked candidate. Obviously Arrow’s theorem tells us that full IIA is expensive, but local IIA is readily achieved by several.

    I co-founded a non-profit organization called The Center for Election Science, which is headed by Warren D. Smith

    Please let him do the writing; you don’t understand the subject well enough to discuss it.

  • 70:30 – I am sure its been commented before but that ratio is much the same as the ratio of those who voted labcon as opposed to all the rest in the last election. In other words those whose votes have more weight were (unsurprisingly) happy with the way FPTP works. Was it all as simple as that?

  • For those of us who are not intellectuals and academics on forms of PR with the exception of @Duncan who thinks the debate is over. Good News folks its not. Take Back Parliament have licked their wounds and are up and running again on twitter @takeback2010 or on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/takebackparliament.
    Its time to start talking about where the strategy for achieveing Electoral Reform goes next. It is time for the Leaders of all the Political Parties in favour of PR and that may mean the Leader of Labour to have a meeting to thrash this out. If not then a Political Movement with possibly separate Party Candidates will have to develop to take this forward. Lib Dems its your choice.

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