LibLink: Mark Pack – Five tips to make sense of the polls

Our place to talk – an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK.

The most-read independent website by and for Lib Dem supporters. Not paid for by trade unions or millionaires.

Advert

LibLink: Mark Pack – Five tips to make sense of the polls

By NewsHound | Wed 7th April 2010 - 6:40 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment is Free website, Lib Dem Voice Co-Editor Mark Pack has some wise words of advice for those who are going to spend the next four weeks poll-watching obsessively: track trends over time, and beware random fluctuations that ‘plunge’, ‘soar’ or ‘collapse’ in a headline. Here’s rule number one:

Rule one: carrying out an opinion poll is like flipping a coin. Flip a coin 10 times. Then do it another 10 times. And again. Chances are the number of heads each time will vary. But that doesn’t mean someone’s swapped the coin for a loaded one in between. Instead, it just reflects random fluctuations between each set of flips. It’s the same with polls: you get random fluctuations even if a party’s support has not actually changed.

Want to know Mark’s other five rules? Then read on …

Read more by NewsHound or more about Mark Pack.
This entry was posted in LibLink and Polls.

Advert

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

Name *

Email *

Website

Comment

Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Most Read

Op-eds

William Wallace writes: The case for higher taxes (Lord William Wallace)
“I’ve worked with Andy Burnham. There is much to look forward to” (NewsHound)
Mathew on Monday: Ann Widdecombe, robust debate and the need to disagree agreeably (Mathew Hulbert)
Tom Arms’ World Review (Tom Arms)
Observations of an Expat: Visions of America (Tom Arms)

Advert

Recent Comments

Pawel Urbanski
No argument on reform. My worry is the word "higher". It tends to lose elections. The real scandal is not the rates, it is a tax code so complex the wealthy can...
Meg Thomas
@russel @david I thought the triple lock was unfair but it has brought state pensions up to the levels in most devleoped countries AND remember that younger peo...
expats
Ever more scare mongering about 'DEFENCE' is putting basic living standards at risk; who exactly is threatening us militarily? Russia is unable to win a war aga...
Nick Hopkinson
As usual another erudite article from William. Whilst I support the imposition of some taxes on excessive wealth, I would like to see the party focus primarily ...
Jenny Barnes
How about joining in fewer discretionary wars. Stop the MOD wasting money. Cancel Ajax and the planned F35a purchase. Mothball or use for spares one of the airc...