Over at The Guardian’s Comment is Free website, Lib Dem Voice Co-Editor Mark Pack has some wise words of advice for those who are going to spend the next four weeks poll-watching obsessively: track trends over time, and beware random fluctuations that ‘plunge’, ‘soar’ or ‘collapse’ in a headline. Here’s rule number one:
Rule one: carrying out an opinion poll is like flipping a coin. Flip a coin 10 times. Then do it another 10 times. And again. Chances are the number of heads each time will vary. But that doesn’t mean someone’s swapped the coin for a loaded one in between. Instead, it just reflects random fluctuations between each set of flips. It’s the same with polls: you get random fluctuations even if a party’s support has not actually changed.
Want to know Mark’s other five rules? Then read on …
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