“What annoyed me most was that they had intelligent policies and were not dogmatic, so I thought ‘how could you possibly go into coalition with the Tories?'”
That quote, from a voter in a Liberal Democrat held seat, neatly summarises a view that is both held passionately by many Liberal Democrat voters but also irritates many Liberal Democrat members – for the obvious riposte is, “How can you both say we shouldn’t be dogmatic and also insist we rule out one party regardless of circumstances?”
It comes from a set of focus groups commissioned by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, along with two opinion polls – one of people who had voted Liberal Democrat in May and one of people who had seriously considered doing so, but in the end didn’t vote Lib Dem. Not all of the analysis is as rigorous as it should be, such as the discussion of the number of people who voted Liberal Democrat for negative rather than positive reasons as if everyone who votes for other parties only votes for them for positive reasons.
Also unmentioned is that consistently over the last several general elections, only around half of those who voted Liberal Democrat at one general election then voted Lib Dem again at the next. In that context, the numbers of people who say they voted Lib Dem but will not next time are not necessarily significantly new; perhaps the question is more about why the sources of new support which have more than compensated for those switches away after previous elections are largely drying up this time. Ashcroft’s research does not throw a light onto this.
What it does show is that nearly two thirds (62%) of Liberal Democrat voters say they would have still voted the same way if they had known the outcome would be a coalition with the Tories, though it is just under half (49%) who say that going into government with the Conservatives was the right thing to do. Just over half (55%) of those who thought about voting Lib Dem but didn’t in the end also think that forming the coalition was the right thing to do.
Looking to the next election, less than a third (28%) put a continuation of the coalition as their preferred outcome, only slightly higher than the quarter (24%) who want to see a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
Considering what the party stands for, ‘fairness’ was the most common answer from the focus group members though many people struggled to give a full answer to the question. However, a majority of both Lib Dem voters and those who thought about voting Lib Dem rejected statements such as that the Lib Dems “don’t really have any principles, they are just going along with what the Conservatives want in return for some jobs in the government”.
In most policy areas, more people thought the party had made no difference than had made policies better or worse. Welfare reform and the environment see the biggest leads for those who think things have been made better over those who think policies have been made worse by Liberal Democrat involvement (37-19 and 32-21 amongst Lib Dem voters and 33-17 and 29-7 amongst Lib Dem considerers). Defence and tuition fees are the two with the largest leads for those who think policies have been made worse (17-26 and 11-49 amongst Lib Dem voters and 12-27 and 13-18 amongst considerers).
In the focus groups, several said they thought the Lib Dems had a general moderating influence on the Conservatives or had “softened the blow” of spending cuts, but few were able to name specific examples. Two-thirds of Lib Dems backed the overall plans to cut spending and the deficit, but many are concerned about the speed of the cuts.
For more on the polling, see the ConservativeHome report.
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23 Comments
I have consistently voted LibDem because they proclaimed to represent my views and made promises that I believed meant something from people who were supposed to have integrity.
I was prepared to give the coalition a chance however I now have to say that the LibDems should withdraw.
Why? Because without them the Tories would have neither mandate nor numbers to wreak the damage that they causing now and about to cause.
This http://bit.ly/98TvQK has made me want to see those who stole my vote imprisoned.
Who do I find to represent my points of view with integrity now? Labour regularly promise things and lie to get power. The conservatives are venal, elitist and self-serving.
I think it should be kept in mind that Lord Ashcroft is a Conservative who wants the Party to continue supporting mostly Tory policies for the remainder of the Coalition. He has no concern for the future of the Party apart from perhaps hoping it will lose every seat at the next GE.
The results of a survey conducted by the Party itself, excluding those who are engaged in the Coalition, would be far more convincing!
“In the focus groups, several said they thought the Lib Dems had a general moderating influence on the Conservatives or had “softened the blow” of spending cuts”
Ashcroft’s focus group reports make Interesting reading and contain few surprises, but the above quote shows that the real test is yet to come. The cuts have not even begun yet. As they start to bite, voters will see that the claims made by the Lib Dem leadership to be a moderating influence are fanciful, because the blow hasn’t been softened one bit.
With the “localism” proposals being a handy way for the Tories to shift the blame for the cuts to local authorities, I think the fall-out from this will be hard for the Lib Dems to endure – even more so than the tuition fees fiasco.
Lord Ashcrofts report actually said
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/11122010_what_future_for__the_liberaldemocrats.pdf
“Accordingly, nearly half of Lib Dem voters said their view of the party had changed for the worse since the
general election, and only just over half of them currently expect to vote for the party next time, in May 2015″
” 44% of those who voted Liberal Democrat said their view of the party had changed for the worse
since the election, while only 14% said it had changed for the better”
At the end of the day, Lord Ashcroft is no Friend of the Liberal Democrats, and if you think he is spending time and money, doing research to help the Liberal Democrats position, then you are seriously mistaken.
The only reason Ashcroft would be engaged in any research to do with the Liberals is to assess how best to cause further damage to the party and hopefully win their seats at the next election.
“Also unmentioned is that consistently over the last several general elections, only around half of those who voted Liberal Democrat at one general election then voted Lib Dem again at the next. In that context, the numbers of people who say they voted Lib Dem but will not next time are not necessarily significantly new; perhaps the question is more about why the sources of new support which have more than compensated for those switches away after previous elections are largely drying up this time. Ashcroft’s research does not throw a light onto this.”
Losing 50% of votes between elections should be a massive worry, but it makes me realise that I am going to be alone at the next election. I would think it is resonable to assume that previously voters dissafected with Government look to the alternatives. The problem now is that voters unhappy with the Government will not look to protest by moving their vote to another Government party. Without this possibility it should be viewed to be more important to keep current voters onboard.
@mett
I agree that the reason for Ashcroft spending his tax free money on this type of survey is to hurt not help the Lib Dems. Whilst this may be uncomfortable reading for the Lib Dems, the Conservatives will believe that it is good news for them and gives them the start of a plan to absorb Lib Dem votes.
Another writer on this site advises that the first lesson of coalition is this:
1. Tension with your coalition partner is very healthy, especially if it is public. Your job is not to get on with the Tories. Your job is to stand up for your voters,
The voters’ verdict is that this has not happened. The opposite has happened – the party has sacrificed the interests of its voters to get on with the Tories.
Imagine how different last week would have been if (1) the tuition fees policy was led by Gove; (2) Cameron was told that it was for him to get Lib Dem MPs to vote for his policy, which we would defend no more than saying it was Tory party policy and we were stuck with it.
Instead the Lib Dems led the charge. The voters’ verdict is a rational and right one and will continue perhaps for ever but certainly until David Allen’s point in another comment is taken on board – the aim of the LDs is not to soften a right wing agenda. This is simply to make possible an agenda that otherwise cannot get the support it needs to pass.
That quote, from a voter in a Liberal Democrat held seat, neatly summarises a view that is both held passionately by many Liberal Democrat voters but also irritates many Liberal Democrat members – for the obvious riposte is, “How can you both say we shouldn’t be dogmatic and also insist we rule out one party regardless of circumstances?”
So it’s not the Lib Dem members fault, it’s the voters?
There is a difference between not being dogmatic, and doing the opposite of what your manifesto means and your personal pledges say.
It’s almost as if the Lib Dems see power as the sole objective, every principle, every promise, every pledge can be left by the wayside as long as MPs sit on government benches.
What do you stand for now? What are your principles?
You quote the LibDem/Tory (28) and LibDem/Labour (24) coalition preferences, noting these are now fairly close, but that risks being misleading without the context of the other answers offered.
Overall, clearly Liberal Democrat voters from May 2010 would prefer Labour in government to the Tories next time, by a fairly significant margin.
(Early) preferences for May 2015 outcome among LD May 2010 voters:
Tory/LibDem coalition: 28%
Labour government: 27%
Labour/LibDem coalition: 24%
Tory government: 10%
So there is overall rather higher (51-38) support for a government involving Labour to one involving the Tories among LD 2010 voters.
The things that stood out most from this for me were (mixing focus group and poll findings):
1. Critics were prepared to give the party time, as Mark says.
2. Those who voted LD for local reasons have a benevolent view of the party’s national actions.
3. “Considerers” had a favourable view of the party and Clegg (66% of “considerers” thought Clegg was doing a good job.)
4. And, above all – they didn’t seem too bothered about the pledge.
Mark – that is rather selective use of the polling data I must say. Matt + Sunder both make the point in different ways.
Matt’s posted the link – but it is worth reading in full.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/11122010_what_future_for__the_liberaldemocrats.pdf
The elephant in the room you are so assiduously avoiding seems to be the huge number of former LD voters who have now abandoned your party for good. From the heady days of Cleggmania to the current dire situation in a scant 6 months.
I have voted LD (or SDP/Alliance) in every election since I could vote. I will never do so again.
You only have to read the comments on the thread here about your former colleague Mr Huzzey’s resignation, or on sites like Liberal Conspiracy, to see the strength of feeling involved, and the number of formerly loyal supporters (whether members or not) that you are losing.
I wonder how many members you have actually lost? Presumably somebody must be keeping a count, no? Of course the loss of so many people who are against your cureent course may be grist to the mill of those within the party who still agree with Nick…. but at what long term cost?
It is absurd to say we shouldn’t look at this stuff becuase it is commissiioned by Ashcroft. I suspect that most of the questions are exactly the same as Cowley St would be asking if we had the money.
Also naive to think that Ashcroft has a simple plan of destroying us. The Tories are beginning to realise that if we are decimated at the election Labour will benefit and therefore it is in their interests for us not to fall too far, particulalry in Lab/Con marginals.
I suspect what is also worrying the Tories is our results in some by elections where we are doing very well against them.
Can I be boring (yes I can) & point out again that the Coalition has run less than one eighth of its course & has so far faced no electoral challenges. All those who think they know the result of the 2015 Election already need to calm down & wait for some actual evidence.
@ SMcG
I would have thought the evidence is already overwhelming, with the Party’s support cut by two thirds and Clegg a national hate figure – on a policy which was Tory inspired and a complete reverse of that in the manifesto.
Politics is a cut throat business – once this is learned, there will be time to start a salvage operation – I hope it doesn’t take too long though.
@SMcG
I think you need to do better research into by election results.
Liberal Democrats are making most of their gains from Conservatives,
However a majority of those gains are also coming from seats where No Labour candidate is running.
Liberal Democrats are also losing a lot of their seats, and most of those loses are going to Labour.
In the seats that Liberal Democrats are holding, their share of the vote is collapsing, with labour picking up the votes.
Everything is not all rosie in the Liberal Democrat Party, and it is foolish to try and paint a picture otherwise, They are losing votes, losing members, and resigning activists.
You are doing your party a disservice by claiming otherwise, how on earth will the parties leadership take on heed any warnings, if people from the ground keep falsely trumpeting how good everything is.
I wonder is someone should conduct a poll asking:-
“Where do you get your information from about Lib Dem policies and decisions in the Coalition?”
and/or “Which newspaper do you normally read?”
The results of surveys can reflect the deficiencies/bias of the available sources of factual information.
Sadly, most information is not now provided by “reporters” but by “commentators”, whose objectivity may be considerably less than their allegiance to the preferances and enthusiasm of their employers for “controversy”.
When people were approached and asked to participate in this survey, I wonder if the opening line was “I’m doing a survey on behalf of and paid for by Lord Ashcroft…….” and how many subsequently refused to take part? Would it have made a difference to who participated?
One can “over-read” the significance of surveys. Especially as they may be designed to be used to “make news” rather than report objectively from a statistically (if not, politically) representative sample using hypothetical questions……..
@paul barker
“Can I be boring (yes I can) & point out again that the Coalition has run less than one eighth of its course & has so far faced no electoral challenges”
Can I suggest you wait till the new Year, when the coalition is going to have to renew control orders, or come up with an alternative. And since the security services have been unable to come with an alternative, You can best your last quid, that Control Orders will stay.
This will be hugely difficult for the liberal democrat party and their stance on Civil Liberties. There is no opt out in the coalition agreement, that allows Liberal democrats to abstain on this issue, meaning, ALL liberal Democrats will be whipped into supporting the renewal of control orders. Do you really think your party will survive another car crash?
On March the 26th we have the National protests in London against the Cuts, where 200’000 people are expected to March. Do you really expect your party to be unaffected by that car crash?
In May 2011 there will be local elections and also Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly elections, where Liberal Democrats are expected to do extremely bad, Do you think your party will survive that crash?
May I suggest to you, Come the end of May, the coalition will be facing an electoral challenge.
You might also want to consider the fact that Lord Ashcroft is polling and putting in extensive research into Liberal democrat Votes and constituencies, add to that the fact that the conservatives have been pushing even harder on funding donations.
I would suggest that there is real cause for concerns for the party, and it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee
I know that Lib/Dem members do not like to think badly of others, but within the context of cut throat politics it is not impossible that NC has been offered a safe Tory seat, VC a seat in the Lords and any Scottish L/D MP will not suffer much at the polls for getting one over on the olde enemy, after all Scottish students have been protected.
incidentally does anyone know how Simon Hughes meeting with senior members of his Bermondsey and Old Southwark Lib Dem party on Sunday went, to try to persuade them not to resign?
It is a Problem faced by many Liberal Democrat Constituency MP’s, and indeed I am sure, local Liberal Democrat councillors.
It is another clear sign of the problems faced by the party
This is all very interesting. It tells us that many of our voters are disappointed with us, and more are distrustful. Obviously, this is very bad. At the same time, though, it bursts the myth that Lib Dems all desperately wanted a coalition with Labour, or that all of our voters are hugely unhappy. Also, it suggests that our voters want to find reasons to believe in us. It’s also interesting to see how great the ‘churn’ is historically in our votes.
Ultimately, time will tell. Those who think that they can predict either success or crashing failure after only six months of government are frankly deluded.
” Also, it suggests that our voters want to find reasons to believe in us.”
People should not have to look for reasons to believe in their party, they should be clearly evident in the first place.
The fact that people are having to look, suggests that something is really amiss
Sunder Katwala – But Yougov now clearly show that while a majority of May 2010 LD voters may be sceptical of Cameron of those that remain and have not defected to Labour they are much more positive towards Cameron and prefer him to Ed Miliband.
@HYUFD
“But Yougov now clearly show that while a majority of May 2010 LD voters may be sceptical of Cameron of those that remain and have not defected to Labour they are much more positive towards Cameron and prefer him to Ed Miliband”
Exactly, Labour lost many of its voters to Liberal Democrats at the last election, hence the reason Labour dropped to 29% and Liberal Democrats got 23%
Since the general Election though, many of those ex Labour voters, have returned in floods to the Labour Party, Hence the reason why Liberal Democrats are trailing at 8% in the polls.
It stands to reason that the only supporters that are left of the Liberal party are those that are more inclined to lean to the Right and therefore would be more inclined to be supportive of Cameron.
It really is not good for the Liberal Democrats either way and some urgent action needs to be taken to steer the party back to the centre, centre left.
Car Crash after Car Crash is heading in the direction on the party over the next couple of months, which could see the Liberal Democrats obliterated as a party for the next 50 years, unless some drastic action is taken {Control Orders}
Sitting tight and waiting out a storm is not really an option, when you haven’t taken precautions to mitigate the damage