Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill helps the rich and hurts the poor. And yet, Trump was elected by a demographic shift of poor voters to Republican ranks.
They voted for him not because they believe he supports the rich instead of them, but because they feel he speaks to their values, frustrations, and identity in ways that matter more to them than traditional economic policies.
Trump validates their worldview.He gives them someone to blame for their struggles. He channels their anger into a story where they are the true Americans under siege.
So how loyal is that base? Pretty loyal. For many supporters, Trump is not just a politician—he’s a symbol of resistance to liberal elites, political correctness, globalisation, and a system they feel left them behind. He taps into identity, not just policy. That is a bond that runs deep.
So what could break that bond? Nothing less than a clear personal betrayal that his supporters could directly feel. The Big Beautiful Bill’s cuts in Medicaid are a step in that direction. And Democrats believe that they can use it to win back control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections.
But that will be hard road because Trump—and MAGA—are expert at blaming others such as Congress or the “deep state”.
Another possibility is if the Democrats could find a candidate that could channel the same emotions Trump does—anti-Establishment, tough-talking, outsider—but with fewer legal troubles and more discipline. Barack Obama had some of those qualities.
A national crisis could also do the trick and Trump’s tariffs and diplomacy and defense policies are headed that way. Inflation has risen half a percentage point in his first six months and the dollar has fallen ten percent. His planned tariffs will cause even more economic disruption. And if he manages to get rid of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the purchasing power of Americans will drop dramatically.
Trump’s dropping of the bunker-busting bombs on Iran won him high marks. The affair seems to be done and dusted. But it is too early to say that Trump’s bombs were the end of the matter. Iran could be biding its time and waiting for the opportunity which could still drag America into a “forever war” that Trump has promised to avoid.
Then there are health and environmental disasters. Trump has gutted the National Institute for Health and the Centre for Disease Control. He has done the same to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. If America faced another health crisis, hurricanes, floods or wildfires then it is less well-equipped to deal with them.
The reality, however, is that Trump’s hard core base is rock solid and represents 25-30 percent of the country. His broader coalition (another 10–15%) is more pragmatic and could shift, especially in swing suburbs, but only if the costs of loyalty start to outweigh the emotional or cultural benefits.
The good news is that unless Trump manages to change the constitution, he is leaving the White House in 3 and a half years. And he has no clear replacement. The MAGA movement is a personality cult, not a traditional ideology or party faction and cannot survive without him. A post-Trump GOP might face civil war between MAGA diehards and those eager to move on.
Movements built around one person often burn out. They feel unstoppable—until they’re not. And nothing is inevitable. Authoritarian trends can be reversed. They have been before.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”
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11 Comments
It would be nice to think that Medicaid cuts will hurt the republicans hard in 2026, but I still think that the most we can hope for is the Democrats to take back the House. As for 2028, I still think JD Vance will be a formidable candidate to carry the MAGA flag.
I do worry about the 2026 mid-terms. What would happen if Trump posts members of his greatly expanding ICE force outside polling stations in Democrat-leaning districts? How much would that suppress the vote?
Because who will stop him?
I’m sure it’s not intended but this feels like asking the question – what is the minimum we need to do to defeat Trump, or will he just go away.
Use the Medicaid cuts OR find a candidate with emotional resonance? Why not BOTH? Why not both, and reflect on how much damage the fringe left has done to the Democrats among moderate patriotic Americans? And maybe even find a candidate who is of, by and for the rustbelt?
And that’s before we get to trade and immigration where the election is most likely to be won or lost. The politics of these is working for Trump and I don’t have a straightforward answer. Obviously echoing Trump wouldn’t work – nobody would believe it – and would be the wrong answer. But hoping it will go away as an issue won’t work either.
But maybe, nonetheless, the question should be what is the most we can do to defeat Trump/MAGA next time, not what is the minimum.
Big parallels with the UK and Reform.
Also I would quite like the US and UK to be great again. Why do the vandals get to have this as their slogan?
I don’t share Tom’s certainty when he says “The good news is that unless Trump manages to change the constitution, he is leaving the White House in 3 and a half years.” My reasons for this are simple
1) I believe Trump will do everything and anything he thinks he can get away with to remain in power, and many people will support him in that aim.
2) Although it seems SEC. 70302 of Trump’s BBB has been removed, a supine Supreme Court may still prevent any timely action being taken to enforce decisions he doesn’t like, and as time passes the Supreme Court seems to be getting ever more supine.
Hence the only hope may be the Grim Reaper and that could be quite a long wait – Average Life Expectancy of 79 year old US male is nearly 8 years, but about 5% will make it to 100.
The US constitution is difficult to amend. It requires a 2/3 majority in both houses of Congress and the agreement of 3/4 of the states. Trump won’t get that. So the question is, could even a supine Supreme Court interpret the clear prohibition of people being elected more than twice as President to allow Trump a third term? It seems unlikely. The other suggestion has been that Trump runs as VP to JD Vance, who then resigns and allows Trump to take over. Vance wants to be president. Why would he agree to act in a way that would prevent that?
While I agree with Mick that the US Constitution is difficult to amend, it seems it is not as difficult to manipulat. Just as Putin put a puppet in the form of Dmitry Medvedev as President to effectively by-pass the Russian Constitution limit, the US Constitution can be manipulated in this area if Trump picks a patsy to stand for election as President, with Trump on the ticket as Vice President. On election the patsy promptly stands down, Trump automatically becomes president and the patsy gets his/her reward as Trump selects his VP.
This was reported in many publications at end of March, including the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx20lwedn23o
I see no certainty that the Supreme Court would veto that.
Of equal concern in many ways is the fact that Trump supporters have been elected into positions of responsibility where they could choose to undermine the election process. That could scupper any chance of a swing to the democrats in many states in the mid-term elections.
@David Evans
I fear it is easier than you suggest: all Donald Trump needs to do to retain power is get one of his sons to stand for president, with Donald standing as vice-president. This keeps TRUMP on the ballot, creates a Trump dynasty to carry on his work, and allows Donald to effectively retain all the power he desires. It would also provide Donald with protection from any legal charges which are being lined up for when he leaves office, and of course there would be a smooth transition to his son ruling when he finally encounters the Grim Reaper. And I would not be surprised to see such a move win in 2028.
Is there any hope that voters will come to their senses both here and in the USA and realise what mugs these politicians are taking them for, l suppose not but l can continue hope.
We are assuming he will want to, he will be 82, He is overweight, becoming more irrational and may well have a third party candidate running strongly on the right ie Musk.
Good point Brenda,
I hadn’t thought of that, and after a 40 year career in Accounting and Internal Audit, I am well used to being one of the few prepared to ask “What way can those devious Blighters (usually Cons or Lab or in the more distant past, managers) find to circumvent this idea?
Welcome to the club!
David
@Brenda Will
Trump cannot stand for Vice-President either in 2028, because a V-P has to be someone who is qualified to be President and Trump is disqualified having already served two terms. One of Trump’s sons could stand for President and as you say that would put the Trump name on the ballot paper. We have had a father and son both being US presidents, but in the case of John Adams (2nd) and John Quincy Adams (6th) there were other presidents in between their presidencies.