Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

Ben Smotrich is backed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. But the two men do not have enough cabinet votes to stop cabinet passage of the ceasefire agreement. However, they have also threatened to withdraw their support from Netanyahu which would collapse the government and force an election

This would likely spell political disaster for Israel’s long-serving prime minister. The voters hold him responsible for the security lapses that led to the Hamas attack and the Gaza War. And if he is voted out of office Netanyahu faces a series of fraud trials and prison time if found guilty.

Then there are the Palestinian prisoners. The agreement does not specify which or how many prisoners will be released. Under Israeli law any Israeli citizen has a 48 hour window in which to appeal against the release of anyone jailed for terrorist offenses. A delay in the release of Palestinians could lead to the delay of the release of hostages which would be a casus belli that the Israeli far-right seeks to continue the fighting.

Don’t forget the West Bank. It has been largely forgotten by a Gaza disaster which has left more than 47,000 dead. But while the world was distracted, Israeli settles saw their opportunity and confiscated more land in 15 months then they have in the past 20 years.

On Thursday, Defence Minister, Israel Katz ordered the release of West Bank Israeli settlers arrested for attacks on Palestinians. He said: “I want to convey a clear message of strengthening and encouraging West Bank settlement.” The future of the West Bank is no part of the current agreement.

Neither is there any mention of the two-state solution or any form of self-determination for the Palestinians. Netanyahu has adamantly ruled out the two-state solution and demanded the annexation of the West Bank.

The US Republican Party appears to be splitting on the issue. Trump has said in the past that he opposes the two-state solution and supports annexation. But one of his key supporters, Senator Lindsey Graham, recently said that the holy grail of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will not happen without “some form of a two-state solution.” He added: “They (the Saudis) cannot normalise relations if they are seen as throwing the Palestinians under the bus.”

Senator Graham’s remarks represent an evolving shift in American and wider Western public opinion. The guilt of the Holocaust fades with each passing year. The generation of today and tomorrow is more focused on the genocide of Gaza.

Polls show that the Israeli public are aware and worried about their growing status as a pariah state. They don’t like it. It is important to them to be part of the wider world—especially the Western world. But at the same time they want security and fear that a two-state solution would only result in an established hostile Palestinian state perpetually poised on their border. As the new Hamas leader, Khalil al-Haya, said when the ceasefire was announced: “We will not forget. We will not forgive.”

Ben Smotrich and Co. argue that only the death of every Hamas fighter and the total dismantlement of their governing apparatus will result in the necessary security. But as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, recently said: “For every Hamas fighter that is killed ten more spring up to take their place. The goal of total dismantlement is ephemeral and will only lead to constant insurgency and perpetual war.”

The ceasefire agreement is flawed. It is incomplete. It is peppered with loopholes, complications, unresolved details and an absence of political will. It is best a shaky start. It is also the best achievable in the circumstances.

 

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".

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12 Comments

  • Craig Levene 18th Jan '25 - 4:13pm

    Biden had the leverage to stop this slaughter so much earlier. The man deserves zero credit.

  • Jenny Barnes 19th Jan '25 - 7:41am

    I found the ALFA proposal linked to incomprehensible. Maybe that’s an advantage.

    Meanwhile I see the ceasefire has been delayed.

  • Phase 3 – reconstruction of Gaza. Clearly this must happen, but zero UK taxpayer funds must be spent on this. Israel must be made to pay for it in its entirety with sequestration of Israeli assets if necessary. Phase 4 – the prosecution of Netanyahu as a war criminal??

  • Mark Frankel 19th Jan '25 - 8:56am

    The Palestinians do not want a two-state solution. They just want to carry on their 100-years feud with the Zionist enemy. It’s hopeless.

  • @Mark Frankel – “The Palestinians” – really? If you said “Hamas” you would have a point, but stereotyping all Palestinians of being of the same mind on this issue is perhaps unhelpful.

  • Jenny Barnes 19th Jan '25 - 9:44am
  • Peter Martin 19th Jan '25 - 9:55am

    ” They just want to carry on their 100-years feud with the Zionist enemy.”

    So it didn’t just start on the 7th Oct 2023 then?

    What happened a hundred years ago?

  • Sadly, there are those even in this party who, no matter what Israel does to Palestinians, will always blame Palestinians…

  • If Zionist Israel were any other country, its illegal, Zionist-only colonies in Occupied Palestine – the W Bank including E Jerusalem would be regarded as blatant evidence of ethnic cleansing, and the killing and maiming in order to clear the land and build these: acts of genocide.

    This temporary lull in the extrajudicial Killing and collateral damage is just that.

  • Yusuf Osman 19th Jan '25 - 5:02pm

    No criticism of Tom is intended by the below, but I find the attribution of credit somewhat hard and distasteful. Blame on the other hand is far easier and palatable. So, in no particular order, Hamas, the Israeli Government, the US, UK and other western powers are all in greater or lesser degrees responsible for what has happened in Gaza over the last 18 months and also responsible for the latest round which began with the unforgivable hostage taking.
    Credit should go to those who have been trying to negotiate a settlement, over many years usually behind closed doors, whose names we will probably never know as the politicians at the top will publicly grab the credit for themselves. Those negotiators who have tried for months to push both the Israeli Government and Hamas to find a agreement to stop the bloodshed and return the hostages, whilst both sides appear to have been content to continue killing each other. Israel is an internationally recognised state and so should be held up to a higher standard than Hamas, which although operating like a government of a state isn’t.
    It somewhat reminds me of the situation in Cyprus. The 2 sides there seem content to live with the divided land because the sacrifices required from both sides are too unpalatable to contemplate. Therefore reunification continues to be an illusory goal. For the Government of Israel as the Government of Cyprus, not enough pressure has been exerted to make them believe the current state of affairs has its costs.

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