Nuclear arms negotiators talk wistfully about the happy bilateral nuclear arms talks of the Cold War era. They were a dream compared to the multilateral nightmare that confronts today’s diplomats.

Putin is moving the nuclear goalposts with his threats of tactical nukes. The Ukraine War threatens to escalate. The ABM and INF Treaties are no more. Renewed START talks have failed to start. Rogue North Korea has joined the nuclear club. Iran is on the cusp of following suit. And finally, China is threatening to become a strategic nuclear power to rival Russia and the US.

The Chinese dimension of this multi-dimensional chess game is the most worrying. The Chinese have maintained a minimal nuclear arsenal since their first test explosion in 1964. Their policy has been to have just enough nuclear weapons to deter an attack. At the last count that was about 340. This would give China a slight numerical edge on Britain and France but way behind giants Russia and America.

But that is changing under Xi Jinping. His goal is nuclear parity with Russia and the US. Nuclear equivalence, he argues, is a 21st century prerequisite for respect which is an essential currency for international trade and political negotiations. It is believed that he wants 1,500 deployed Chinese nuclear weapons which would put Beijing on a par with America’s 1,644  deployments and Russia’s 1,588.

But Xi’s race to the top nuclear table is in danger of sparking off a nuclear arms race which would be far more dangerous and complex than that of the Cold War years.

For a start, there is the issue of talks to limit weapons. Washington has broached the subject with Beijing and been rebuffed. They rejected the American approach for several reasons. First, they want to build up their arsenal so that they can negotiate from a position of strength.

Second Beijing insists that Washington adopts China’s “No First Use” policy which would commit the US to ruling out a First Strike capability. This would be diametrically opposed to the NATO Flexible Responsible doctrine which is designed to deter a conventional attack by Russia on European NATO.

Finally, there is America’s insistence that China join trilateral arms reduction talks with Russia itself. This is a no-go for Beijing. They don’t like being lumped in with the Russians. They are close now, but it was not long ago that Beijing and Moscow were at daggers drawn, and geography dictates that they will always be competitors in Central Asia, Siberia, Korea and the Arctic regions.

Then there is the likelihood that if China beefs up its nuclear arsenal the Russians would want to increase their stockpile to counter the threat from their some time ally/ some time enemy from the East.

The US would also want more weapons because it would face an increased nuclear threat from the other side of the Pacific as well as from the eastern side of the Atlantic.

Don’t forget India with its 150-200 nuclear weapons. They are mainly to deter Pakistan, but Sino-Indian relations are also fraught. An increase in Chinese weaponry would likely prompt a response from Delhi which would in turn push Pakistan to increase its arsenal.

The nuclear dominoes would continue to fall. It would become almost impossible to stop Iran from joining the nuclear club which means

Israel would increase its estimated 180-strong secret stockpile. Saudi Arabia may also be pulled in opposition to Iran.

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is unlikely to want to be left behind which would concern Japan which is currently re-thinking its defense policies.

Oh, for the simple, happy days of the Cold War.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".