Senator Chuck Schumer is America’s senior American politician. He is also the Senate Majority Leader. So when attacks the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and calls for fresh elections to oust him, people sit up and take notice.
The left-wing of the Democratic Party love it, and it is doubtful that Schumer would have spoken without first clearing the speech with his close friend and political ally President Biden.
The Israeli government is furious. “Israel is not a banana republic,” it fumed. “Senator Schumer is expected to respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it. This is always true and even more so in time of war.”
The Israelis words were echoed by ranking Senate Republican Mitch McConnell. As soon as Schumer sat down, McConnell jumped to his feet to rebut: “Israel is not a colony of America…. Only Israelis should have a say in who forms their government. Either we respect their decision or we disrespect their democracy.”
And therein lies the rub. With all its faults – and it has many – Israel is a vibrant democracy. Its oft-held general elections regularly achieve turnouts of between 60 to 70 percent. There is a lively free press and the public are free to take to the streets and demonstrate whenever—and they do, often. They also keep re-electing Netanyahu.
The latest opinion polls, are not, however, good news for the prime minister and his Likud Party. They show that Likud would drop thirteen Knesset seats from 33 to 20 if an election was held today. The big winner would be Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party who are expected to jump from 20 to 32 seats.
Gantz has called for a “two entity” solution to the Arab-Israeli problem. He has not, however, defined “entity” and so far has supported Netanyahu’s attacks on Gazans and refusal to accept a ceasefire. Israeli can no longer live alongside Hamas, he said, “this reality has to change.”
A Gantz government is unlikely to bring peace. This is because most Israelis are not in favour of the conditions that would create it.
For a start, to form a government, Gantz would need 61 out of the 120 Knesset seats. The problem is that – other than roughly 10 seats held by Israeli-Arab politicians—only one political party, Meretz, is wholly committed to the two-state solution. They currently have no Knesset seats and are projected to win only five if an election was held now. The centre-right Yesh Atid led by former TV anchor Yair Lapid, endorses talking with the Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements. But it stops short of the two-state solution.
The fact is that every opinion poll shows strong support for the war, opposition to a ceasefire, hatred of Palestinians and hostility towards the two-state solution. For instance, one would have thought that students would hold the most liberal thoughts towards the Gazans. But a poll last month at Tel Aviv University revealed that less than two percent thought the Israel Defence Force (IDF) was using too much firepower. 55 percent thought they were using too little.
A poll taken by Israel’s Channel 12 at the end of January reported that 72 percent of Israelis said Humanitarian aid into Gaza “must be stopped until the Israeli hostages are released.” On February 1, hundreds of demonstrators managed to block an aid convoy.
The underlying cause for support for the war is a socially and politically conservative electorate. In 1990, the ultra-Orthodox community was five percent of the population of Israel. In 2023 it was 15 percent and within two years it is projected to be 20 percent. They are a solid anti-Palestinian bloc vote, which is why the projected share of Orthodox seats in the Knesset is expected to be virtually unchanged.
Of course, not all Israeli Jews are religious. In fact, a 2016 poll indicated that only 30 percent thought religion was important. But in a January 2024 poll, a staggering 93 percent believed that all the land between the Mediterranean and the River Jordan (“from the river to the sea”) belonged to the Jewish nation.
As the famous Israeli historian Ilan Pappe ironically wrote: “We do not believe in God, but he nevertheless promised us Palestine.” Pappe’s liberal leanings led to death threats, lecture boycotts and calls for him to be sacked by the Israel Minister for Education. Pappe left Israel in 2007 and now teaches Middle East studies at Britain’s Exeter University.
If an election was held in Israel today Netanyahu would lose. But he would NOT lose because he refused to negotiate with the Palestinians or because he backs annexation of the West Bank or opposes the two-state solution. He would lose because the October 7 Hamas attack occurred on his watch.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”
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15 Comments
Thank you Tom, for a very good piece that makes necessary but sombre reading.
One important point is education. I was struck by a conversation I had with a young Jewish woman a couple of years ago. She had gone to one of the top Jewish schools in London. She had been taught a lot about Israel, and encouraged to identify with the country, but her class were taught nothing about the Palestinians until, in the sixth form, a visiting speaker came into the school to talk to them about how to deal with “pro-Palestinian arguments” they were likely to encounter at university.
I suspect the position is even worse in the Israeli education system. My understanding is that the insights and groundbreaking research of the ‘new historians’ like Shlaim, Morris and Pappe are not taught. It is often said that text books in Arab countries should be re-examined, and no doubt rightfully so. I suspect the same applies to Israeli textbooks. It is only with good education that peace can come. The tragedy of 7 October and subsequent events reflects the consequences of this failure.
Thank you for an interesting and so relevant article!
Might we please have reasonably precise definition of a “vibrant democracy” and how the state of Israel fits this definition?
Ilan pappe’s book “The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine” is an eye opening and depressing read on the Israel/Palestine situation.
The last General election in South Africa under Apartheid (1989) had a turnout of just a fraction under 70% – but no one described the country as a vibrant democracy as everyone realised that millions of people who lived in territory controlled by the South African state, such as in the ‘Bantustans’, were not entitled to vote for the Government that controlled the territory in which they lived.
That equally applies in Israel where millions of Palestinians live in territory controlled by the Israeli state but have no right to vote for the Government that ultimately controls their lives.
Senator Chuck Schumer‘s speech is worth listening to.
His full speech can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VgXMcm_9l0
It starts at 5:10 and lasts 44 minutes.
What is notable is how measured and conciliatory, as if Israel is more powerful than the US…
“The underlying cause for support for the war is a socially and politically conservative electorate.”
No, the underlying cause for support for the war is that a Palestinian terrorist organisation carried out a campaign of mass rapes and murder on Oct 7 – and 163 days later are still holding 134 hostages, one of whom was less than 10 months old when kidnapped.
The war continues because the Palestinian leadership has refused all efforts to negotiate a (second) ceasefire which would involve releasing those hostages.
@Mary Fulton – Your comment is incorrect. Palestinians did have one election almost a decade
after the Oslo peace accords. The failure to hold elections before then or since then is entirely due to internal Palestinian faction fighting, not Israel.
I also find this depressing. The views expressed in Israeli polls seem to be far removed from those in the USA. I hope that the US media will pick up on this and thus lead to diminishing unconditional support of Israel by the USA.
But, I am puzzled by the concept that “not all …Jews are religious”. Judaism is a religion. ‘Non-religious Israelis’ I understand. ‘Non-Israeli Jews’ I understand. I have not heard the phrase ‘non-religious Christians’. People who, by choice, describe themselves as Jewish support a religion.
@Steve Nash. At the risk of being pedantic I do need to challenge your assertions.
Judaism is indeed a religion, but being Jewish is a cultural, and ethnic, category. The Holocaust was not targeted at those who practiced their religion but at a minority ethnic group in Germany and beyond. Perhaps you aren’t aware that some Jews are also Christians – they are known as Messianic Jews, and they don’t feel the need to denounce their Jewishness because of their beliefs. And I know several people who are proud of their Jewish heritage but do not practice Judaism, or any other religion, in any meaningful way.
So it is not at all inconsistent to say that not all Jews are religious.
@ Paul R
I’m afraid you misunderstand. I was very clear in my comment that Palestinians have “no right to vote for the Government that ultimately controls their lives.”
I stand by that comment. The Palestinian Authority is not a government of a sovereign state – Israel retains ultimate control. The apartheid regime in South Africa tried to argue that only white people should get to vote for the South African government since the black population had their ‘rights’ in their assigned bantustans. Let us not fall into that same trap here by arguing that it is in any way acceptable for Israel to remain control of all Palestinian territory but only allow Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza elections.
Sorry my last comment did not end as I intended. I wanted to say it was not acceptable for Israel to keep ultimate control over Palestinian Territories but only allow Palestinians to vote in ‘local’ elections in the West Bank and Gaza. This is from the apartheid South Africa playbook.
@Mary Fulton: Israel may be preventing Gazans from voting in Israeli elections, but it’s down to Hamas that there have been no local elections in Gaza since 2006.
@Paul R “The war continues because” of the occupation and ethnic cleansing of Palestine since 1948 perhaps? The history of this conflict goes back 76 years, not 6 months.
I abhor the destruction of Gaza by the IDF at the instigation of Netanyahu and his right wing zealots, but far too many people are avoiding the obvious fact. Netanyahu would not have had the excuse to do what the IDF are doing if HAMAS had not committed a despicable terrorist attack on 7th October.
I believe fervently in a 2 state solution, but many people campaigning for the Palestinian cause seem to want to airbrush 7th October out of the picture. I believe HAMAS wanted to provoke a disproportionate response from Israel to gain support for their cause. They knew what Israel was likely to do in response and they didn’t care.
What we need now is an immediate ceasefire and a total cessation of all arms sales in the Middle East to both sides. Biden could force the issue as could Iran, bit it seems likely that neither will. LibDems must support the magnificent lead of Layla Moran and continue to push for a ceasefire now.
The article shows the weakness of democracy when it treats its geography in isolation. No country is an island in the 21st century. This is why we need stronger global institutions that can reflect and leverage global opinion in a diplomatic way that works. if the UN cannot do this what is its function beyond humanitarian relief?