Turkey is the ultimate political straddler. It straddles the Dardanelles – Eastern Europe’s gateway from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It also straddles the continents of Europe and Asia and has historically bridged the cultures of East and West.

For all those reasons and more any Turkish election would be important. But the vote next weekend (14 May) is crucial for Turkey, Europe, the Middle East, NATO, and the Ukraine War and beyond. For the first time, Turkish voters have a clear choice between a populist Islamist autocrat and a politician who promises to return the country to the secular democratic roots that Kemal Ataturk introduced exactly 100 years ago.  Opinion polls indicate that the result could go either way.

The most likely scenario for this weekend is that none of the four candidates will win an outright majority this weekend. In that case, there will be a second round on 28 May which will almost certainly be between incumbent Recep Tayip Erdogan, populist leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Kemal Kilidaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and representing a six-party anti-Erdogan coalition.

For most Turkish voters the key issues are the economy and the recent earthquake that killed more than 50,000 and displaced an estimated 6 million. On the first, Erdogan suffers. In the past two years, the Turkish lira has lost 60 percent of its value against the dollar. Runaway inflation at a peak of 86 percent through millions into poverty. It is currently 50 percent. Unemployment is running at 9.7 percent. Erdogan is universally blamed for mismanaging the economy.

The earthquake is another matter. The president was quick to visit the disaster-struck zones, organise relief operations and allocate money for rebuilding. But the quake was in Erdogan’s political heartland which means up to a million displaced people will be unable to vote for him.

Although most voters are concerned almost entirely with the issues of bread, butter, jobs and shelter; there is still a large slice for whom basic political freedoms and policies are important. Here also, Erdogan falls flat. Over his 20-year-long rule has evolved into becoming an elected dictator.

An estimated 17,000 political opponents are in Turkish prisons. They include politicians, military officers, journalists, judges, academics and lawyers. It is now a criminal offense to criticise the president and 200,000 have been arrested for doing so. The media is controlled by Erdogan’s AKP party which also appoints the judges and the members of the Supreme Electoral Council.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu has promised to release political prisoners, de-politicise the judiciary and introduce freedom of press laws. He has also pledged that anyone who wants to call him nasty names is free to do so. These proposed changes have an aim—renewed talks for Turkish accession to the European Union.

EU membership was an agreed goal of successive Turkish governments until Erdogan changed direction about halfway through his 20-year reign. His autocratic style clashed with Brussels democratic requirements and proposed membership of Europe was shoved firmly into deep freeze. Erdogan responded by attacking both Brussels and Washington and accusing them of countless anti-Turkish conspiracy theories.

Resuming accession talks with the EU will be difficult. After the Erdogan era, Europeans are sceptical about Turkey’s ability to change and remain democratic. France and Austria are especially opposed to Turkish membership.

NATO is another big issue. Erdogan has not been a good alliance partner. He is supplying Ukraine with drones but ignoring Western sanctions against Russia. He also alienated Washington by buying Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. The Americans responded by dropping Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet programme and slapping sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

Erdogan has also blocked Swedish membership of NATO because the Swedish government has given political asylum to his opponents. He has, however, dropped his veto to Finnish membership of the alliance. If Erdogan wins, he is expected to invite Putin to visit Ankara.

Kilidaroglu has promised to be a better NATO partner and said he would drop the Turkish block on Swedish membership. But he has also said Turkey under his presidency would continue to ignore Western sanctions against Russia. He argues that Turkey needs the money.

There are nearly 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. Kilidaroglu wants to offer financial aid to Syria to create conditions that will allow a large proportion to return home. There are several problems with this. Firstly, the Syrian Civil War is far from over, although at the moment things are looking up for Bashar al-Assad. Secondly, the Assad government refuses to talk with Ankara until it has removed the 10,000 Turkish troops Erdogan sent into northern Syria.

There is also a strong cultural/religious element in the Turkish elections. Turkey, like many countries, is culturally divided between urban-based liberals and the more socially conservative rural population. In the case of Turkey the differences are magnified by secularists in the cities and devout Muslims in Turkey’s eastern hinterland. The latter have felt themselves ignored for a 100 years by Ataturk’s anti-Islamic secularist laws.

Erdogan has established a strong political base in Eastern Turkey by moving the country away from the secular principles. A major part of his campaign emphasises his support for Islamic values. He opposes LGBTQ rights and attacks the decadent West. His opponent is dismissed as a “pervert” and “fascist” in hock to Imperialist America.

All the above may be academic. There is a real fear that Erdogan may simply ignore or rig the election results. The electoral mechanics are organised by the Supreme Electoral Council whose members are appointed by Erdogan’s AKP Party. So are the judges that oversee the council. The media is also controlled by Erdogan.

In 2019 mayoral elections in the key cities of Ankara and Istanbul, the AKP lost to the opposition. Erdogan refused to accept the result and demanded a re-run. The opposition candidate in Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu increased his majority the second time round but was promptly arrested for “insulting election officials.” He was found guilty and sentenced to two and a half years in prison and banned from participating in politics. The sentence is currently waiting to be heard by the appeals court.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”