Paul writes..
Please use the comments thread below to discuss the US election results as they come in.
Here are a few links which may help you get your head round what to expect and when to expect it:
FiveThirtyEight has an excellent guide to the timings of the vote counts. Bear in mind that there are vastly more postal votes than usual this time. So results in some key states will not be available on election night.
Florida, Georgia and North Carolina are the “needle states” singled out by the New York Times as providing good early indicators of the result.
And this article from CNN is very good at outlining “red mirage” and “blue mirage” states. For example, Pennsylvania is a really key state, perhaps the key state, but it doesn’t count the bulk of its postal votes until after election night. So the first votes to be counted will be in-person votes from election day in the rural counties which are likely to favour Trump. So it will look like Trump is winning early on.
Look out for an early and misleading declaration of victory from Donald Trump. The TV networks are planning how to handle that to avoid fomenting possible civil unrest.
This Twitter list contains US polling experts, which may be worth keeping an eye on for informed (but decidedly “wonkish”) analysis.
Caron chimes in…
So I am in a Zoom room with lots of lovely Scottish Lib Dems in a party run by Lib Dem Women. Their chair, Ruth of the Women, has produced this bingo card that you may find useful:
There are some great snacks at various parties around the country.
Here’s Steve’s Jolly Scran.
That is more Reese’s confectionary than is ever acceptable.
Jenny in Edinburgh has been busy. How classy are these?
I am on an appropriate wine
Let’s hope that we emerge into the light in a few hours’ time.
What was your favourite US election night?
While we’re waiting for the fun to start, what was your favourite US election night.
The first I can remember was 1976, when Jimmy Carter won.
The most special was in 1992 when Bill Clinton won. Not only had we finally got rid of these god awful Republicans, but I spent it snuggling my beautiful new baby niece. She was weeks old, but she should have been days old. She had unexpectedly made an appearance while we were at the Harrogate conference. I remember that she was wearing a very funky babygro as far as I can remember. I reminded her about that today. Not that she remembered, obviously.
What was your favourite?
* Paul Walter is a Liberal Democrat activist and member of the Liberal Democrat Voice team. He blogs at Liberal Burblings.
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A little joke from Saturday’s Daily Mirror while we wait:
Why is Trump like a pumpkin? They are both orange on the outside. Hollow inside. And both should be thrown out in November!
First Senate flip of the night. The Democrats have taken the Senate seat of Colorado.
The White House think they have Florida in the bag.
North Carolina is tightening.
The bookies think Trump has the election in the bag. Trump odds at William Hill 1/3.
It’s as good as over.
I am watching CNN. 86% of the vote counted in NC. 49.4 each for Biden/Trump. That looks encouraging for Biden.
Arizona. Maricopa county is looking much more blue than 2016.
Fox has called Arizona for Biden.
AP has called Minnesota for Biden
Fox have retracted their call on Arizona.
CORRECTION 05:41: They insist they have got Arizona right – ie for Biden.
AP have called Florida for Trump.
Joe Biden is speaking – some might say he is claiming victory before Trump can! LOL!
“We believe we’re on track to win this election,” says Joe Biden from Delaware at 12:43 AM Nov. 4th.
Sky News reports: “Twitter has removed a tweet from Donald Trump which accuses his rivals of “trying to steal the election””
Encouraging news from Dane County Wisconsin:
Biden won Dane County WI by a 35,132 bigger margin than Clinton in 2016. That is far larger than the 22,748 that Trump won Wisconsin by in 2016
Yes, the Republicans were awful.
In which ways was Mr. Clinton better?
In which ways, for instance, are the foreign policies of Republicans and Democrats different?
Wisconsin is looking like it will go to Trump.
Steve Trevethan:
Would you be of the opinion that the Paris Climate Agreement was pretty much worthless anyway? Are you at all concerned by the prospect of hostilities with Iran? That is just a couple of issues to get started with.
Most of the bookies calling it for Trump, wish I’d had a sly bet!
Bookies tend to know more about horses than politics.
It’s looking good for Biden in Wisconsin and Georgia.
The Paris climate agreement, whilst a worthy effort has proven to be next to worthless.
Hostilities between the west and Iran will continue either directly or via various proxies. The colour of the occupant of the White House may determine the timing and means but little else.
The Paris agreement seems to be too limited to address the current and increasing climate crisis.
Might what matters be the extent to which it is a start to genuine remedial action or the appearance of such to keep people quiet?
Since W. W. 2 the U. S. A. has been involved in some 144 armed interventions.
Can anyone spot any differences between these armed interventions and between these armed interventions and any outbreaks of peace according with the party in power?
Unfortunately,with the Paris Agreement, lack of action all round indicates that for the majority of signatories it is the latter.
“Trust the people” used to be an old Tory line. Some hope of the trouncing Trump deserves, even in such extreme circumstances!
After playing childish games over covid19 and costing the lives and health of many thousands of people ( 700 deaths estimated as a result of Trump Rally’s alone), all the lying, trade wars started, broken promises, rocketing U.S debts and an economy trashed as a result, he’s still in with a chance with the votes split almost down the middle and a conservative stacked court possibly to decide. Even more bizarrely, Trumps vote % among hispanics and Black people has risen? Meanwhile, the bookies have my bet on Biden to win
After all of this, the clash makes me realise how hard it will be to get the Tories out in 4 years time
John Littler. William Ewart Gladstone. “Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is mistrust of the people tempered by fear”.
Steve Trevethan: The USA is an imperial power and like all such powers whether in the past, present or future do whatever is necessary to maintain their power, including the use of armed force and trade treaties with weaker powers. Although it has the trappings of democracy and the composition of the Senate and the Electoral College were ostensibly designed to give individual states equal power in effect they ensure that the rich and powerful retain control whichever party forms the Government. The Democrats are more like moderate Conservatives than a party of the Left, composed of those who are more intelligent than the hard right and see that it is essential to give the people some crumbs in order to maintain the power of the elite and the rich and avoid a revolution which could sweep them away.
Mr Biden is polite and sounds reasonable but apart from that he is unlikely to change the way America works to keep its power over others. Another power will arise in due course as it has always done because power contains the seeds of its own destruction.
Hoping Biden does win, Trump is a disaster, even here….
Having just driven down the A90 in Aberdeenshire past a large brown road sign stating: “Trump International Golf Resort”, I have suggested to a local Councillor that the access road to the resort should be renamed Biden Way, or similar, if things turn out as they are looking now.
Said Councillor liked my suggestion, but I’m not so sure this would be taken up by the Tory run council (sadly with LD support).
China signals its support for the Democrats ! Its Imperial Palace is the For Biden City.
Biden has won