In 1889 Lloyd George saw the way that Wales was bring treated by his fellow Liberals, over home, rule as being like prize giving at a country fayre:
Excellent little Wales’ and all that. At horse shows we sometimes see a first prize of £10 given to one, £5 to another, while the third is ‘Highly Commended’. That is the way that Wales is treated by the Liberal Party. Ireland deservedly gets the first prize (a series of splendid measures). Scotland take second prize. Wales, like a Welsh mountain pony, is sent away with nothing.
What Lloyd George said then is arguably as much a truism today as it was then. From the start of the recent Westminster coalition government the concentration on keeping the union together has revolved around events occurring “north of the border” rather than west of it. Yet the ironic fact remains that whereas Scotland has done well out of the union, which is apparent from its GDP and the average weekly pay figures, Wales remains the poorest of all four UK nations.
In virtually every economic, educational and prosperity league table Wales’ is at the bottom and in those on poor health and social deprivation it is at the top. Wales has been in steady decline for the last three decades. In 1989 Welsh GVA was 85 per cent of the UK average, today it is around 73 per cent. Scotland in contrast is approximately GVA is 99 per cent of the UK average and the highest in the UK outside London and the South East. Wales isn’t only doing badly on a UK standard, however, it is also has some of the poorest parts of Western Europe and increasingly it is becoming outpaced by many areas of Eastern Europe.
Whereas it is true that unemployment in Wales is low, that’s mainly down to the fact that most working people remain stuck in low paid or part time jobs. It is shocking to realise that only around 90,000 people in Wales pay tax at 40 per cent (1 in 16 Welsh earners) and less than 4,000 at 45 per cent, out of a working population of 1.35 million. That’s roughly the size of just the electorate of one council ward in the whole of Wales paying 45 per cent tax. To be in the top 1 per cent of Welsh earners you need only earn over £54,000 a year. That means 99 in ever 100 Welsh earners earn less than this.
Wales has virtually no private sector, which can provide middle management jobs. In 2012 the top private sector provider of graduate jobs in Wales was ‘Boots the Chemists’ with just 10 graduate jobs (there are around 131,000 graduate students in Wales). Those that live in Wales therefore are also painfully aware that there are virtually no middle management positions outside of the public sector for graduates and non graduates alike. Going to work in England for many is the only option to progress.
What is the purpose of all this statistical data gathering? Well it’s to point out that when the dust settles on Scotland those in Wales will be looking to see what the benefits of Union are for them? Government by the three main political parties have merely seen the nation get poorer and more reliant on public sector employment and government subsidy.
There is no active independence movement in Wales at the moment. In fact in a nation of over three million people there is not even one spokesperson pushing the independence cause, not even in Plaid Cymru. This may not remain the case for much longer, however. If the nationalists can present the poor realities of Welsh British union in a coherent manner it could see a surge in support for them, to the electoral detriment of the other parties. Therefore Liberal Democrat ministers need to be aware when campaigning in Scotland that using the experience of Wales as an argument for staying in the union may not be fully supported by the facts! They may also wish to implement the enhanced powers and electoral system recommended by the Silk Commission 1 and 2. In this way, they would at least lay claim to a legacy of ensuring that Wales was put on a level playing field with Scotland because it deserved it rather than simple just trying to buy a nation off voting for independence.
* Professor Russell Deacon is the former chair of the Parliament for Wales Campaign, a Welsh Liberal Democrat councillor and Vice Chair of the Welsh think tank Gorwel
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12 Comments
Important points about the problems in Wales particularly the economy. However it’s surely a mistake to try and suggest the economic differences between Scotland and Wales are down to devolution. The lack of high skilled private sector jobs in Wales is consistent with large parts of England,outside the south east. Many of those regions have higher populations and bigger cities but the core problems remain the same.The UK economy isn’t working. Myths have been spread fora generation that Mrs Thatcher solved the economic problem in the UK. Anyone outside the South East would have seen this as baloney.
Scotland is a bit of a special case. It has a long established financial sector and the considerable north sea oil industry – although there’s a feeling in Aberdeen that it hasn’tleft much of a legacy. We have had a generation of politicians who have believed the government should just get out of the way and let ‘entrepeneurs’ create wealth. Cameron and Clegg are cut fromthe same cloth.It’s not really about political devolution,we need to re-think how the economy works.
Federalism, federalism, federalism. Please. Now. Or as soon as possible.
Oh, and a written constitution.
The trouble with a federal UK is how would you divide England? If you have an English parliament it would surely be too powerful within the UK. Is it too much to ask for a political establishment in Westminster who can see beyond the M25?
Clegg has the gall to blast Labour in this front. But what has changed? Diddly squat.
Everybody knows England consists of four parts: London, the North, Cornwall, and. . . er. . . everything else.
Entirely personally (and this is NOT party policy), I would divide England thusly: London and its commuter belt; Southern and Western England (Assembly based at Salisbury, Exeter or Taunton); Central and Eastern England (Assembly based at Leicester or Birmingham); Northern England (Assembly based at York, Leeds or Manchester). Powers and structures would be modelled on the existing London arrangement.
More relevant to Welsh (and Northern Irish) politics, I feel there is a liberal case for introducing an element of voting to express preference as to the next Prime Minister – why should only those who vote for the three mainstream English parties have a say in this matter? The PM has to lead the whole country and the whole country has to feel engaged in its political direction.
Matt (Bristol)
“Federalism, federalism, federalism. Please. Now. Or as soon as possible.”
Wales has had federalism for some time, and look what has happened to it, particularly under Labour.
@Frank Booth
Clegg has the gall to blast Labour in this front. But what has changed? Diddly squat.
And you have the “gall” to blast Clegg. As if the Tories, who happen to be the largest party in parliament and have nixed other reforms including the House of Lords and AV, are going to consider devolution.
It will need a Labour party in coalition with the Lib Dems, holding their feet to the fire, to introduce meaningful constitutional change in the UK.
The reason for Wales’s plight is not lack of net government subsidy. It receives this in spadefuls. It is as this article makes clear, the lack of a strong, indigenous private sector. How to encourage this is the real problem facing Wales.
“If the nationalists can present the poor realities of Welsh British union in a coherent manner it could see a surge in support for them, to the electoral detriment of the other parties.”
They would have to articulate how Wales is going to build up its own sources of private sector income before it does that. So far, they have not.
The point about Wales is, what is the comparative advantage that it offers as a business location (for indigenous business and for incoming investment)?
– Large internal market: No
– Conveniently located for export to the nearest large local market, Europe? Not especially;
– Well educated and highly skilled workforce: No
– Cheap and easily exploited natural resources: No
– Strong and vibrant entrepreneurial culture: Comparatively speaking, no
– Major research base and world class universities: No.
The good news is that many of these points can be addressed, given the right kind of investment and political change.
In fact, the private sector in Wales is currently booming, according to business surveys.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/private-sector-wales-confident-mood-7028859
Wales has control of its own education system already. Investment in transport and universities and in business colleges could be increased, given greater control over finances and the powers to raise additional funding. It’s a question of priorities, and at present, the priorities pursued by Labour in Wales appear to be the wrong ones.
@ Matt (Bristol),
A Central and Eastern England Assembly based in Leicester or Birmingham? I cannot think of anything more likely to alienate my neighbours in Suffolk than a regional tier based even further away than London is.
No, if you are going to make regional government work, it has to be on boundaries that have some emotional meaning to people. East Anglia, including Essex, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, might work, but any greater than that and it risks being seen as remote and irrelevant.
Do you remember in the early 1980’s “the not the nine o’clock news ” sketch ‘failed in Wales’. They reeled off dozens of company names to the tune of ‘ men of Harlech’. Our answer was a Welsh Assembly. We have had a Welsh Assembly for 15 years. 15 years of continued relative decline. The Party’s answer at its Welsh Conference was to improve scrutiny by increasing the size of the Assembly . The ERS is advocating 100 members.
Is it any wonder that a recent poll has seen those wishing to abolish the Assembly jump to 25% far more than support independence. The only Party advocating abolition is UKIP which has seen a greater increase in support in Wales than in England.
If Scotland votes Yes in September and becomes independent, then federalism has failed in the UK. There will be a centralising backlash. It’s federalism that will have been defeated not the Union.
An issue about the Scottish result that has hardly been considered is what Scottish independence would do to Wales’ position within the union. Despite Welsh feelings that Scotland is too often the news and Wales too often the postscript, I think Welsh people would be far more comfortable with a union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than one in which the English proportion had been vastly increased and Wales had no natural allies when the English needed to be disagreed with.
@ RC – wales has not had federalism; it has had devolution – federalism is where a country is made up of a number of devolved bodies having equal status, equal powers and identical roles.
We do not have federalism in this country.
Wales and Scotland currently have a patronising ‘special status’ as they are ‘different’ whilst England continues to regard itself as the centre of power.
@ Mark Valladeres,
I see that, but how then do English regions have the clout to battle with the distorting monster that is London?