Did you see it coming?
No-one likes someone who says ‘I told you so’.
But I did see it coming.
I remember the bubble bursting in 1992. I recall the way so many people who had wished me luck the previous weekend went into the polling booth and said ‘Nah. It’s cheaper to vote Tory’.
I was also acutely aware this year that the vast majority of activists believed that the surge would be sustained and that the targeting strategy was now irrelevant. The ‘five people smiled at me this morning so I think I can win’ phone call was too frequent.
Had parliamentary candidates and other activists stuck to it, then we would have saved Oxford West and Abingdon as well as Hereford and South Herefordshire. We would have seen Sal Brinton elected in Watford. And our tally would be closer to 80 than 50.
Some of those who are this weekend celebrating the improvement in their personal share of the vote should remember the price the Party has paid for it.
There clearly needs to be a review. This must look at campaigning techniques and staffing. And at the manifesto which, to put it kindly, left a lot to be desired.
But there are more pressing issues this weekend. Cameron has made a serious offer. It’s at this point we have to ask ourselves why we joined the Liberal Democrats and why we worked without a break from Easter to secure Liberal Democrat seats.
The ‘purist’ view is that we don’t like the other two parties so it’s up to them to sort it out. We can sit on the sidelines and vote against any bills we don’t like. We’ve done it in councils for years in similar situations.
But councils don’t have currencies to protect or wars to sustain (or withdraw from).
If there is no government the country grinds to a halt. Unlike council officers, civil servants can’t just get on with it and breathe a sigh of relief that the politicians aren’t there to interfere.
If there is no government there is no budget and so no state.
That means an autumn election. And anyone who thinks that we would do well in that election, having refused to do a deal with anyone, is dreaming.
I don’t like the Tories. If I did I would join them. I don’t like Labour. Ditto. But I came into politics to change things and to seek power. Cameron has laid out some things on which we can agree. Crucially he has not ruled out voting reform (the original reason why I found Liberalism in 1974).
I can’t see at this stage the advantage of Lib Dems in ministerial limos. But I can see why we should join with the Tories (or anyone else for that matter) and reclaim civil liberties, manage the economy and reform politics.
And we also have a chance to protect the country from George Osborne. Now that is a prospect…
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30 Comments
Put even more simply, if we believe in political reform (and therefore coalition government), we have to be preparted to work with other parties.
Europhilia and amnesty are post-nationalist programmes.
Awfully out-of-tune to an electorate which is increasingly nationalist (Ulster, Irish, Welsh, Scot, English…)
In addition to being fatally unpopular, Europhilia and amnesty, have an added weakness: they are bad policy.
This is an historically fluid moment, leverage that fluidity to reshape the manifesto for the next (perhaps imminent) election.
I wouldn’t have used the words “join with the Tories” as there are always people that get confused and make the error of voting Tory. I would have written“stick with the Liberal Democrats who are considering working alongside the Tories” for certain manifesto key points for the good of the economy and the people. Emphasis on the “alongside” and “certain manifesto key points”.
If, there was a better offer on electoral reform then there’d be a point. The current offer is laughable.
It is just so depressing to find that beneath the Cleggite facade the Liberal Party is actually the Weimarish collection of Brown`s poodles I feared they were. Osbourne is an Economic Liberal and a fiscal realist.
If this is the Liberal Party we are doomed
Ha ha. I’m starting to think there are more Tories hanging around on LibDemVoice today than Libs. Must be getting desperate…
“Afterthought”
Europhilia will be a fatal disease, in the long run, for the LibDems.
Take a look at the Liberal Party, which is EU-sceptic although regrettably not fully EU-withdrawalist these days, although it seemed to be for a moment. But it certainly got the Euro right, being against it when the EU-fanatic LibDems would – disastrously – have scrapped the Pound and joined it.
Inicidentally, the LIberal Party still has the original LIberal Party Constitution, which prominently calls for property for all as well as for liberty and security. Why does the LIb Dem constitution not do the same, I wonder?
Chris, can you elucidate re campaign techniques and the manifesto?
Oh, am I back to being called a Tory troll? This is what you get with influence… responsibility, but some on LDV don’t seem mentally equipped to handle it.
Oh, Chris, nowt wrong with being an I Told You So 😉
I don’t think many people saw it coming in the target seats we were projected to gain BEFORE Cleggmania, however. Edinburgh South? Dunfermline? Guildford?
Who the heck saw Oxford West coming?
Duncan, as discussed in the bowels of another thread, when Evan Harris was elected, Oxford West was a predominately urban constituency with a large student electorate (I don’t think students should expect a vote immediately on enrolling for their course). It has since lost the studenty-wards and acquired true-blue rural wards.
As for Edinburgh South (my previous constituency), regardless of feelings about Nigel Griffiths’ extra curricular behaviour, I do recall he was personally popular (for instance, he resigned as Deputy Leader over Trident) and it was strongly Labour.
“I was also acutely aware this year that the vast majority of activists believed that the surge would be sustained and that the targeting strategy was now irrelevant.”
The vast majority? Really? Sorry, Chris, but I’ve never heard of you.
Quite a lot of people had observed that the boundary changes made that seat at risk (and encouraged support for Evan Harris). Damnably close though.
Labour too, ever since Friday morning. It’s bizarre.
It was obvious we were slipping a little back from the top. It was certainly not obvious that we would lose all that we had gained.
You’re quite right, no-one likes someone who says ‘I told you so’. Especially when a smart-alec “forecast” is made public after the event!
Chris has a point on targeting, perhaps better discussed more privately.
We carried on helping in our local target seat of Cambridge even though we though it was safe (as it was – great news) but we must also remember that we are individuals, not robots and we can’t blame many local campaigners or candidates from wanting to try to keep their council seats.
It’s been little remarked upon, but more than 150 Lib Dems lost their Council seats.
Well ive always voted libdem both national and local. As we’re looking at another election in the next 24 months I would heed tory libdem coilition. We all detest the tories just like the other 60 odd percent of the country. Joining tory and libdem will loose libdem support back to labour.
get into bed with labour – out brown in 5 months get a referrendum and woo the public and put an end to this nonsense.
remember the tories want power so they can sell off the banks and line their own pockets.. its the same as they did with british telecom and the railways. It’s also the reason w dont have any industry left in this country,
If england wants 15% mortgage interest on their already streched finances vote tory but I just dont understand why the common man has left us in this predicament.
No, I didn’t see it coming. I genuinely thought that Liberal Democrats would get more seats.
I was impressed with Nik Clegg in the debates, and turned this into a vote. Others gave verbal support but when they actually voted….
I can’t say I agree with all the Liberal policies, but I voted for change.
Not for me to comment on the party strategy but the outward visible sign, the manifesto, didn’t work, didn’t convince. So agree there is work to be done in that area…. as it appears it will have to be rolled out again, when there is another election.
There are good arguments for doing nothing or doing something, participate or sit on fence.
I personally favor being active. The national good, if those words are to have meaning, means participating and facilitating Government.
I agree, that taking no action, would be detrimental to the party.
The reform of voting system, seems to be a stumbling block, getting in the way of decision making.
Of course it is at the very heart of the Liberal party, but surely the economic situation and how this is tackled must take priority…National Interest….
I have already expressed my views on what I wanted to be achieved in voting for your Party. I, in common with many do not want to see my vote for your party, actually being a vote for another party… but we are where we are,
and it does appears my vote will in the end be for a Conservative or Labour government, depending upon outcome of negotiations.
No, this wasn’t what I had in mind when I voted Liberal Democrat .
Personally, whilst more in favor a LibDem Conservative cooperation, I believe that any link will either party, Conservative/Labour will be short lived and we will soon have another election.
Hopefully the election we have just had will be a learning experience.
Hopefully, learn from mistakes….
Colin
This Alec had been saying stuff like “lack of political maturity/intelligence” and doing stuff like criticizing Clegg’s put-down when some security chiefs disagreed with him, and getting called a Tory troll for his troubles.
More of the ol’ writing on the wall had been seen by people a lot smarter than him.
You’ve got it! I’m reminded increasingly of the human collaborator in Daleks: Invasion Earth… just as the plunger-heads barbeque’d him, he cried out, “But, I am your friend!”.
The Tories will use the liberals and people detest teh torys taht much an allience pact would make LIb =Tory ,thus you will have lost the support of the public
as for PR ..Dave give you PR ..dream on
Do Not do it
Stay away from Dave and the Tories
Can I be permitted another Comment
As I said, in respect of voting change – “Of course it is at the very heart of the Liberal party”,
but I really wonder if the implications of any form of “change” have been fully understood.
My understanding is that PR will result in the so called “hung parliament” situation, arising more often.
Compromise will then become the norm? Compromise is surely the Now
From what I have read already, political reform is still considered to be the key to any deal…..
But perhaps the question is -“who does PR benefit?”
I guess the conservatives see no benefit
and perhaps Labour see it as acceptable because of the positioning of your party? Just a thought….
So perhaps, the answer is to spell out benefits to the Conservatives.
but as I am sure we are all aware, Electoral reform is not just about voting system… there is the future of Second Chamber….so perhaps this is where PR can be discussed
I still ask myself the question – if acting in the National Interest is what really matters….why is electoral reform the priority?
Colin
“And we also have a chance to protect the country from George Osborne.”
I know George Osborne is the bogeyman for Liberals and the Labour party; I know he has done many evil things like pretend that he is not called Gideon, and allegedly taken drugs, and had his photo taken with a prostitute. And of course he met Mandelson on holiday last year on a squillionaire’s boat, for which there can be no excuse. Also he looks 14 years old, so he must automatically be evil. But really, what the fuck has he done, or suggested might need to be done, to have such opprobrium heaped on him? Tried desperately to tell the millions in this country who are in utter and total denial that around 10% – yes, I’m afraid so, about ten percent or £60 billion – will need permanently to be removed from public expenditure if we are to avoid making Greece look like a model of fiscal rectitude? It seems to be that his honesty in trying to tell people that we are bust is his worst crime apart, of course, from being a Tory, and shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer to boot.
I kept blog-commenting that once we got attention and the poll surge, we needed to make a self-supporting twin track message for the rest of the campaign:
1/ the more Lib Dem MP’s, the stronger a balanced parliament will be and the more likelihood of change (not just a lull before an establishment counter-attack).
2/ show the shadow cabinet! Nick could introduce them via a PPB and say why a Lib Dem executive would be the most talented and able. I envisaged posters as well to support that.
On the ground even some people forgot Vince Cable was also a Lib Dem. Nick became both our strength and our weakness.
“We all detest the tories just like the other 60 odd percent of the country.” —- thats a thick comment. It therefore follows that 77% of the country hate the Libdems. The reality is that 30 – 40% did not vote at all.
Grow up – we are in the new world that the LDs profess to have wanted, and all you do is revert to smears.
And I am here because Iain Dale directed me here.
Cameron’s offer is a serious one. LDs would be mad to refuse. Mad because the country wants it, mad because the country needs it. No matter what individuals like me think or would like.
Chas, seriously, I care not about Osborne’s background, his name change, or his holiday choices. I might take the piss a bit, but I don’t care.
What I do care is that he’s shown himself, time and again, to be a complete incompetent. Look at the posts made by Tories on various blogs, including ToryHome, about whether he was fit for the job, the word “liability” was used several times.
It’s not a coincidence that a lot of campaigners in both LDs and Labour put his face on leaflets and campaign material; he’s widely perceived to be utterly useless. Lord Ashcroft and several senior Tories have pretty much said as much.
Clarke as Chancellor, with Cable as Cheif Sec and chair of economic panel, that’d be doable, but Osborne? He’s not fit for high office, yet, and possibly might not ever be.
After his performance on radio 5 on Friday evening I have lost all respect for KC he was boorish and made huge assumptions. He joined the discussion late and when told PR was the topic at that point immeidatly asumed it was an purist debate on systems went on the attach and totally destroyed a real discussion about the politics of PR and its implications. Back with more power no last night he showed himself to be little more than a Prescott type character well past his best and living the politics of the 80’s
First I’ll be honest about allegiance – I voted Labour, but would be happy with a Lib Dem government. Where I live (Lincolnshire) the Lib Dems seemed to be invisible. The debates were great for getting noticed, but when people went out in the following days it was if the party did not exist. By comparison the conservatives had huge placards at many road junctions, even in their safe seats, and glossy brochures through ever letterbox where they had a chance of gaining the seat. No doubt the situation was different in LIb Dem target constituencies, but I’m sure you would have had a much higher share of the vote if you had been able to compete.
I could not find an accurate figure for how much was spent campaigning by each party. However, an electoral commission report on donations received in the first quarter of 2010 reveals that if this were the only money available:
Each Conservative vote cost them £1.15
Each Labour vote cost 47p
Each LibDem vote cost 28p
On this basis you don’t need to beat yourself up about the result.
As well as PR, you need to propose a reform of party funding, to allow a level playing field. (or find a couple of very rich friends lol) If there is another election in 12 months time, which party will have the funds to dominate?
Under proportional representation coalition governments are the future. The current discussion between the Conservatives and Liberals is the dress rehearsal for the future.
Well I think many people saw in coming until the leaders debates.
Look at the seats that we did badly in, a rather clear pattern emerges – boundary changes, sititng MP stepping down, high profile expenses issue (as some comentators have pointed it, flip you house 4 times and make £200,000k, no problem, the Lib Dems punished Goldsworthy (rocking chair) Lembit (Plasma screen tv), Younger-Ross (furniture).
There were pretty clear warning signs in local elections (Cornwall, Oxford West) and euro election results, however that doesn’t mean that the party could have done anything to change the outcome.
It was also clearfrom 2009 that the expenses issue had mostly damaged the Lib dems – perhaps people have higher expectations? whereas in duck house Gosport for example the Conservative vote soared, people expect the Tories to be nasty and fiddling your expenses is seen as aspirational 🙂
Calls for tactical voting by Labour MPs may not have switched any Labour voters but might have made some people more likley to vote Conservative
Wales is a great example – our most marginal seat becomes our safest, the safest becomes the one we lost.
Coupled to which the other parties can now spot a Lib Dem challenge coming a mile off and shift vast resources into seat. The amount of money poured into Watford was endless. Where we have lost seats, the lost of money/resoucres/profile makes it very difficult to win seats back, particularly as the new MP are often ultra aware of how marginal their seats are. Guildford being a good example.
Councils also have fixed term elections – there is no dash to the polls.
Just watched Gove and Ashdown on Marr. Both demonstrating that adult conversations can resolve differences. The ‘new politics’ as it is being called will leave spiteful tribalists on all sides stranded. This crap about Osborne I’ve been reading here…completely juvenile. Has anyone noticed the shit we’re in? The times call for the kind of maturity both Tories and LibDems are showing. They both need the support of their party members and will get it, from those thoughtful enough to understand the urgency required. 4th formers need not apply.