Final Eastleigh poll puts Lib Dems narrowly ahead of Tories – but all within margin of error!

What will (I assume) be the final poll of the Eastleigh by-election was published this morning. Conducted by Populus and commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, it shows the Lib Dems sustaining a narrow lead — significant in itself, but the more so as Eastleigh voters were interviewed over the weekend during which the controversy over allegations against Lord Rennard were prominent. Figures shown are compared with the most recent Populus poll, published at the end of last week:

    Mike Thornton (Lib Dem)

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Mark Pack on BBC comments on Chris Rennard allegations

Lib Dem Voice co-editor Mark Pack was interviewed by the BBC yesterday about the allegations concerning Chris Rennard. Here’s what he had to say:

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Stephen Tall on Sky News comments on today’s Chris Rennard allegations

Lib Dem Voice co-editor Stephen Tall was interviewed on Sky News earlier today about the allegations concerning Chris Rennard — here’s what he had to say:

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Update on the Party’s processes following the allegations concerning the conduct of Lord Rennard

I want to update you on three developments to the processes I outlined in my post on Saturday.

Arrangements for victims and witnesses to come forward

Firstly, we have sought the assistance of Public Concern at Work, the UK’s leading whistle-blowing authority, to ensure that the whistle-blowing arrangement is sufficiently independent to provide the required support to those wishing to come forward in relation to the alleged behaviour of Lord Rennard.

Public Concern at Work have agreed to take over the role, temporarily filled by Kate Parminter, as the main point of contact for anyone wishing to come forward with further allegations or information.

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The tale of Nick Clegg, 36 celebrities and 3 wishes

With all the other stuff in the papers yesterday, it won’t be surprising if Nick Clegg’s appearance in the Sunday Times magazine passed you by. He faced questions from a panel of 36 celebrities who put their hearts and souls into thinking all sorts of original questions for him.

First up was Jeremy Clarkson, characteristically pithy, asking whether Nick felt sorry for Chris Huhne. “After all,” the Top Gear presenter said, “he was only speeding.”

Nick’s played that with a compassionate but clear bat:

I do feel sorry for the whole family because they have all clearly become engulfed in something that has

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Clegg slams Tories at Eastleigh for “breath-taking opportunism”

nick clegg eastleighFrom PoliticsHome:

Nick Clegg has accused the Conservatives of “breath-taking” opportunism over their campaign in Eastleigh.

The Tories have run posters criticising Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton for backing a housing development on greenfield land in the constituency.

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Team EastLY – making a difference

Some rights eserved by Helen Duffett

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CentreForum: Three tax changes to help rebalance the economy

Tax ConsiderationsVince Cable this month launched our new publication on helping small and medium sized businesses access stock market finance. Here, I’d like to concentrate on three tax changes that could address the broader challenge of ‘rebalancing the economy’ away from an over-reliance on debt and unproductive investment.

I’m all for a highly progressive tax system that doesn’t privilege ‘capital income’, but that doesn’t mean the current system works in a fair or sensible way, as these three bizarre distortions show.

Corporation tax

As George Osborne said in opposition:

Our corporate sector’s

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Farron: “We screwed this up”

Speaking on Radio Four’s Today programme, Party President Tim Farron spoke candidly about the the handling of the alleged inappropriate behaviour of the party’s former chief executive, stating very plainly:

The one thing I probably can tell you without going through due process is that we screwed this up as a party. There are individuals out there who we have a duty of care towards who we did not fulfil that duty of care to them and that is something we have to learn from, apologise for, and make sure never happens again.

He emphasised two key points which will guide the …

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Today’s front pages: the Chris Rennard allegations dominate

Today’s front pages of the newspapers are about as grim as you might imagine after the weekend’s events…

rennard front pages - 25 feb 2013

I’ve not had chance to read through all the press yet. Two that have caught my eye are this critical, but fair-minded, editorial in The Guardian:

Like the BBC over Jimmy Savile in recent weeks, the Liberal Democrats have faced difficult press allegations in recent days. Last night the Liberal Democrats found themselves scrambling to clarify whether they looked in the other direction over claims about their former

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Nick Clegg’s statement on Chris Rennard: 5 key points

It’s just over an hour since we published Nick Clegg’s statement concerning the allegations of inappropriate sexual behaviour levelled against Lord (Chris) Rennard. Here are some quick, initial thoughts:

1) Nick Clegg has stuck by his position, repeated earlier today by Vince Cable and Danny Alexander, that he “did not know about these allegations until Channel 4 informed the party of them shortly before they were broadcast.” However, he was aware of “indirect and non-specific concerns about Chris Rennard’s conduct” in 2008, his first year as party leader. He asked Danny Alexander to put these allegations to Chris Rennard, who …

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Statement from Nick Clegg on Chris Rennard allegations

The following statement by Nick Clegg has just been issued:

The allegations made on Channel 4 concerning Lord Rennard last Thursday were extremely serious and distressing to the women involved. It is critical they are investigated thoroughly and dealt with properly and they will be.

But I would like to make one thing crystal clear. I did not know about these allegations until Channel 4 informed the party of them shortly before they were broadcast. I have today spoken to one of the women in the broadcast who I respect and admire and who confirmed that she had never raised the issue

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LibLink: Nick Clegg – the Conservatives need to adopt the politics of fairness

In today’s Observer, Nick Clegg makes the case once again for a mansion tax to be introduced as the most effective way of spreading the pain of austerity. In fact, he goes a bit further saying it is inevitable:

Victor Hugo observed that it is near impossible to resist an idea once its time has come. Last week, he was again proved right as calls for a mansion tax, first proposed by the Liberal Democrats in 2009, gathered new momentum. … I offer certainty: the mansion tax, or a version of it, will happen. My party has often led the

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Libby Local, Episode 12: “Vox Pops”

“No I won’t vote for you,” the man growled as he began to shut the door in my face.

“Why…” I began to say.

“In a word,” he snarled, “Jewellery Tax.”

And the door was slammed shut. I was rather glad.

It was the last doorstep of the day and overall it had been a good afternoon. I’d met a lot of retired people, mothers at home for half-term and home workers. And a good number had pledged their votes.

The evening was spent with Melissa putting my Focus newsletter together. It was rather fun. I’d gathered a fair few vox …

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Nick Clegg’s Letter from the Leader: “Five days to make a difference.”

Just one issue dominates Nick’s weekly letter: the Eastleigh by-election and the close contest between the Lib Dems and Tories. Here’s his letter in full…

libdem letter from nick clegg

Five days. That is all we have got left to make sure the people of Eastleigh send Mike Thornton to Westminster as their new MP. Five days to make a difference.

I went back to Eastleigh this week. And each time I visit, I am overwhelmed by the number of volunteers, from all over the country, who are giving up their spare time to

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Chris Rennard allegations: where we’re at

Today’s press makes grim reading for the Lib Dems. Three of the Sunday papers lead on the allegations that Lord (Chris) Rennard behaved sexually inappropriately during his time as chief executive, and — more worrying still — that the party covered it up.

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++ Another new Eastleigh poll – and this time it shows the Tories in front by 4%

nick clegg eastleighLast night brought news of a Populus poll for The Times showing the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories by 33%-28%, a Lib Dem lead of 5%.

But tonight a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has shown the Tories ahead of the Lib Dems by 33%-29%, a Tory lead of 4%.

Survation conducted an Eastleigh poll a fortnight ago — then they found the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 36%-33%. Here’s how the figures compare:

    Lib Dems 29% (-4%)
    Conservatives 33% (n/c)
    Ukip 21% (+5%)
    Labour 13% (n/c)

Only …

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Eastleigh by-election: your essential round-up of the week’s campaign news

Lib Dem chief executive Tim Gordon summed up the week so far in his weekly email to activists:

Liberal Democrats have broken their own party’s by-election campaign records with more volunteers, more money raised and more campaign literature delivered in the opening days of the Eastleigh by-election campaign than any other.

And today’s been no exception:

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Allegations regarding the conduct of Lord Rennard: a statement from Jo Swinson MP

My focus throughout has been to protect the women who confided in me and, our shared objective, to prevent other women experiencing this kind of behaviour. All the time I was careful to respect their wish for privacy and, for that matter, their right not to be harassed by the press .

I took action and ensured that others took action. I told the women who had confided in me what I had done to try to put a stop to any inappropriate behaviour, and encouraged them to let me know if they became aware of any further incidents.

I …

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Allegations regarding the conduct of Lord Rennard and the Party’s response

Many of you will have seen and heard the various media reports alleging serious misconduct by Lord Rennard while he was Chief Executive of the Party and pointing to a failure of the Party more widely to adequately deal with complaints made about this behaviour. It appears that we did not fully live up to our political ideals, and I regret that.

I want to assure you that the Party, and I as Chief Executive, are taking these questions very seriously – both as regards the specific allegations that were made, but also about the Party’s procedures for handling complaints …

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LibLink…Tavish Scott: Community councils empower the people

One of the big themes in Scottish politics in recent years has been the Labour and SNP impulse to centralise anything that stands still for long enough. The SNP Government, against all good advice and much opinion, recently merged Scotland’s 8 police forces into one.

In contrast, the Liberal Democrats under Willie Rennie’s leadership have been emphasising giving power to local communities. Tavish Scott, MSP for Shetland writes in the Scotsman about how giving more power to community councils could help deliver the sorts of services communities need, including schools.He cites the example of a plan to close a secondary school …

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The Independent View: Why reforming football is a liberal agenda

Football is moving up the political agenda. In 2010 DCMS announced an inquiry into football governance which culminated in a report in 2011, criticising the football authorities for levels of debt and supporter engagement among other things. Meanwhile, Supporters Direct, the body responsible for promoting the values of supporter engagement in the UK, has been busy lobbying parliament for a new rule in club licensing (which allows clubs to compete in the leagues) that guarantees a structured relationship between supporters and their clubs; and secondly the establishment of a Government Expert Group to explore removing barriers to increase …

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++ New Eastleigh poll: Lib Dems have 5% lead over Tories, Labour trail in 4th place behind Ukip

eastleigh bar chartUK Polling Report has the figures from the latest (and last?) opinion poll to be conducted in Eastleigh ahead of polling day this Thursday — it shows the Lib Dems leading the Tories by 5%.

The poll was conducted for The Times by Populus, the firm which undertook a previous survey for Lord Ashcroft (changes in brackets compare the two):

    Lib Dems 33% (+2%)
    Conservatives 28% (-6%)
    UKIP 21% (+8%)
    Labour 11% (-8%)

On the face of it, this is good news for the Lib Dems. HOWEVER, we know the Tories are mounting …

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UK loses its triple-A rating – George should’ve listened to Danny

The BBC reports tonight’s predictable news:

UK’s AAA credit rating cut to Aa1 by Moody’s
The UK has had its AAA credit rating cut by Moody’s, based on its expectation that growth will “remain sluggish over the next few years”. The ratings agency became the first to lower the UK from its highest rating, to Aa1. … The UK’s net sovereign debt was the equivalent of 68% of the country’s annual economic output, or GDP, at the end of last year. All three major credit agencies last year put the UK on “negative outlook”, meaning they could downgrade its rating if

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Chris Rennard allegations – the party needs to do better than this

There’s a certain grim irony that the BBC’s mis-handling of the Jimmy Savile row should re-erupt at the same time as Lib Dems consider our own party’s alleged failings to take seriously enough claims of inappropriate sexual behaviour levelled against former chief executive, Lord (Chris) Rennard.

There is a gulf both in the severity and scale of the allegations. But there is also a potentially worrying similarity: that just as the BBC turned a blind eye to the alleged offences one of its stars, so too did the Lib Dems.

Like many in the party I’d heard rumours …

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The LDV Friday Five: 22 February 2013

It’s Friday. It’s five o’clock. Here’s a fistful of lists that sum up the LDV week:

5 most-read stories on LDV this week

  1. What Google reveals about the current state of play in Eastleigh (7 comments) by Mark Pack
  2. Eastleigh by-election: your essential round-up of the latest campaign news (19 Feb) (6 comments) by Stephen Tall
  3. Half a defence of John O’Farrell’s comments on Margaret Thatcher (64 comments) by Stephen Tall
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Opinion: Where is evidence based decision making about the NHS?

One of the great things about growing old is that life becomes much simpler. Those raging passions of youth give way, very gradually, to an acceptance that, in the grand scheme of things, we are pretty insignificant. Imagine my surprise when I found my blood pressure rising and my normally equitable mood being replaced by a growing sense of outrage. What exceptional event caused this? Well, it was the  Health and Social Care Act, 2012.

I am not sentimental about the NHS, or any other public body for that matter, and believe that we should constantly be trying to improve our …

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Opinion: The case for NGDP targeting (1)

The Times is reporting that the Treasury is setting up an internal unit to look into the wisdom of revising the Bank of England’s ‘flexible’ 2% CPI inflation target. Mark Carney, the incoming Governor of the Bank who will replace Mervyn King in June, mentioned the merits of adopting NGDP (National Gross Domestic Product) level targeting in a speech last December, launching a frenzy of speculation.

Considering the enormous effect expectations of future monetary policy changes have had in places such as Japan, it may be that the talk of NGDP targeting is partly behind the …

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LibLink: Eastleigh by-election and mansion tax

The Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast this week focused on the Eastleigh by-election and the mansion tax proposals. These topics were discussed by, amongst others, Lib Dem Voice’s Mark Pack.

You can listen to it here.

 

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Eric Avebury writes … Caste discrimination in the UK

When the Equality Bill was going through the Lords in 2010, I moved an amendment with LibDem support, giving the Government power to add caste to the list of ‘protected characteristics’, making it unlawful to discriminate on grounds of caste in employment, education and the provision of services.

Baroness Thornton, the Minister dealing with the Bill for the Labour Government, accepted the amendment. But the Government decided that further research was needed, and they gave the job to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR). It reported in December 2010 that there was indeed evidence of caste discrimination in …

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