Well, this is interesting. Clearly people are seeing that Lib Dems are the biggest and best Remain Party based on our spectacular local elections results where we gained 704 candidates.
European Parliament voting projection, turnout adjusted:
BRX: 29% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-3)
CON: 13% (-)
LDM: 13% (+5)
GRN: 6% (-)
SNP: 5% (-1)
UKP: 3% (+1)
CHU: 3% (-4)@OpiniumResearch, 3–7 May
Changes with 21–23 April
Headline: BRX 29, LAB 26, CON 14, LDM 12, GRN 6— 326 Politics (@326Pols) May 9, 2019
We are starting to build momentum. What will you do today, tomorrow and every other day until 23 May to build on that?
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27 Comments
Very positive. One poll does not a summer make, but it does provide a basis for further optimism and an opportunity to build on our success in the local elections.
Two weeks to the election and the Tiggers have a poll putting them within the margin of error of no votes at all, as Paddy Ashdown would have put it.
2 polls on the Euros out yesterday, putting us on 11% and 12%, both increases since previous polls by those companies and adjusted figures for one using different methods giving 13% as above. In Westminster polling the 13% from YouGov was actually polled before the local elections but only just released and is a high figure from them, and 11% from Opinium is exceptionally high for a company that usually puts us in the 6-8% range. Change UK not going anywhere at the moment but they are getting lots of publicity so we shouldn’t write them off. Those websites converting polling figures into seats forecasting Euro gains in several regions and approaching 30 seats at Westminster.
Only polls, not votes, but encouraging.
And yet Farage is at 29%. He is in the lead. I hope it is his peak. On these figures we have a long way to go. He is riding a wave of anger, democracy ‘stolen’ from the people.. The country could regret it after the vote.
Nigel
I don’t think the Brexit party is so much riding a wave of anger as it is debunking the myth that Leave voters were voting about everything except membership of the EU. I suspect that without Farage’s mugging it would score higher. The unambiguously Remain Parties combined total is lower than the Brexit Party. Of course it’s hard to draw too many conclusions as party loyalty could be skewing the figures either way.
I’d hoped we’d be doing better than this given the local election result and Labours stance
As Nigel Hunter points out the Remain Parties The Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change Uk and SNP score 27% whereas The Brexit Party and UKIP score 32%.
More importantly after the recent local elections the BBC projected that based on that result that the Liberal Democrats share of the national vote would be 19% (see link to Paul Walters post on the 3rd of May: https://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-gain-676-councillors-11-councils-and-19-of-the-national-vote-amid-1269-seat-losses-for-the-tories-and-63-losses-for-labour-60705.html). Of course this is only a projection but if it’s even approximately correct the Liberal Democrat vote is actually down by up to 6 percentiles based on these figures.
I wonder what the polls will look like after the TV show Brexit behind closed doors aired.
If it gets lots of attention, i suspect we might see an even bigger surge for the Brexit Party.
I know it strengthened my resolve as a leaver
Great news that the Change MEP Julie Girling is advising her constituents (SW & Gibraltar) to vote for The Libdems as the biggest Remain Party. The same advice for all The English Seats from Remain United, a tactical Voting platform.
We seem to have momentum.
@ Andrew Tampion: You say, More importantly after the recent local elections the BBC projected that based on that result that the Liberal Democrats share of the national vote would be 19% (see link to Paul Walters post on the 3rd of May: Of course this is only a projection but if it’s even approximately correct the Liberal Democrat vote is actually down by up to 6 percentiles based on these figures.
I’m not sure if you are being very naive or are just one of the desperate non-Lib Dem spoilers who post here..
You cannot compare projections from LOCAL election votes with an opinión poll for the EUROPEAN election. There are different voting patterns in each.
The Lib Dem vote share in both Opinum and Com Res European election opinión poll has gone up markedly from before the local elctions. This is the only valid comparison. It shows the direction of travel. There has been a boost from the positive publicity generated by the very good local election results.
@ Andrew Tampion 10th May ’19 – 3:57pm
“As Nigel Hunter points out the Remain Parties The Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change Uk and SNP score 27% whereas The Brexit Party and UKIP score 32%.”
So what?
I am part of the “+5” for the Lib Dems. Had joined Labour in the wake of Farron’s abject failure in 2017 and had intended to vote Labour in the European elections (with decreasing enthusiasm and increasingly by trying to convince myself that “a vote for Labour would be a tactical vote against Farage” (and his anonymous millionaire backer)). In the end, my mind was made up by the publication of the LD and Labour manifestos and the presentations by Cable and Corbyn. The Labour Manifesto kept telling me so often what I/the UK owed to the EU that I constantly found myself writing in the margin, “then why on earth are you shilly-shallying around and not clearly coming out and saying (a) Brexit has been a complete and utter disaster, (b) Labour is clearly a Remain party and (c) that the ONLY serious option is to put it back to the people for a re-vote?????? I also found Corbyn’s “launch” performance presentation pathetic; basically a retread of his 2017 general election pitch and hardly referring to Europe at all (except when he raised the (vague and obviously, as far as he is concerned, undesirable), possibility of a second referendum (the ONLY part of his speech which got any enthusiastic applause from those present!) In contrast, Cable/the LDs are to be fully congratulated for having the backbone to say clearly and fully what the desired outcome is from their perspective and to fly fully in the face of the media and its ever-enduring love-in with the Brexit Gang! Results: 1) my vote has gone in the post (voting form arrived this morning) for the LDs in my region (North West), 2) I have written to Labour cancelling my membership (and enclosing my cut-through membership card) and 3) I have signed up as a LD Supporter. Shows (in a minuscule way) (although I am definitely not alone) how, by clear talking and taking a principled stance, very much indeed can be achieved! (PS: I think the “TIGGERS” will fall totally flat and be as forgotten as the “Owen SDP” within a matter of months).
We know that polls show as reality bites remain is in the majority but there is still over 40% of the electorate wedded to delusion. Now it shouldn’t be a puzzle that out of that number a large number would be attracted to the snake oil sales pitch of Nigel. Now the delusion amongst us will scream join us in de Nile the water is lovely; I’ll give it a miss thanks, delusional koolaid has no appeal, reality may be frightening but I’ll face it and avoid delusion.
Bless when faced with reality a large number of leavers prefer the delusion of Nigel, hardly a shock is it; you only have to look at the delusion inherent in the majority of our Brexit posters.
Politics Live BBC2 10/5/19 debated a single candidate for Remain in the Peterborough bye-election. Apparently there was one, who withdrew. Lib Dems and Greens then put up candidates. Change UK were unable to do so.
These are very intriguing opinion polls for a number of reasons:
1. It is highly likely that the Lib Dems will soon hit 15% in the opinion polls for the Euros
Normally yougov this year has given us at least 2% more for the Euros than Westminster which would equal 15%.
In addition their poll was taken before the locals which should be worth a few percent among “those that never vote for us because no-one never votes for us.” brigade. In addition the Comres poll was conducted partially before the locals. Given that they had us on 7% in the last poll, it is a reasonable hypothesis that the part conducted after the locals had us on more than 11%. It is also likely that there will be some movement from the Greens and CHUK as it becomes clear that we are the leading Remain party.
2. The Conservatives are likely to suffer from the d’hondt threshold problem .
The regions in the Midlands and the North are the smallest and they look to be taking a hammering from the Brexit party, especially in those regions. If poll rating slips any further even larger regions and one in the South begin to look tough.
3. The party’s over for Change UK
It is likely they will get under 5% and no MEPs.
There is a remote possibility of one in the South East as the largest region and an even more remote chance in London.
They are now caught in a vicious cycle of low votes and therefore no new MP defections to give them publicity and so low poll rating… Labour seems to have stemmed its defections. Tory MPs are likely to hang on in there until the leadership contest. And even after that Tory MPs (when the Tories are in Government certainly) do not defect. Indeed any MP defecting to CHUG knows their political career will end at the next General Election.
My prediction is we will get at least 17% in the polls. There is the possibility that we might overtake Labour depending on whether their fudge persuades enough Remainers and they stay on board. If we do there is the small (at this stage) possibility that we might challenge the Brexit party in the high 20s – if it is seen as a proxy battle between us and them.
A good result could make the Peterborough by-election quite interesting for us.
It’s all up to us, folks – over the next two weeks!!!!
Much excitement over what is, to the vast majority of people, the most pointless election ever held.
Winning 13% of the vote is not going to stop Brexit or make a second referendum more likely. Anything other than victory will be a failure for advocates of the hard remain position that has tragically infected the party.
@ Charles Rothwell 10th May ’19 – 6:26pm
“I am part of the “+5” for the Lib Dems.”
Welcome (back?) to the party, Charles!
The Euro elections do have a by-election feel about them. There could be late swings
Michael,
The House of Commons is not far away from agreeing a deal with a referendum attached as a way of breaking the deadlock. One of the main obstacles is Corbyn. Losing Labour % to Remain Parties is the only thing that may change his mind.
Very well done, Charles R!
@Charles Rothwell
Another welcome and thanks! You see we are a welcoming, friendly (well most of the time!) lot 🙂 !
@Michael
Clearly no one thing wins the war for Remain – not the march for a People’s Vote. Not an opinion poll showing a majority for a referendum as now. Not an opinion poll showing 58%-42% support for Remain. Not 7 million signing the Revoke petition. They are all steps on the way.
Perhaps most importantly a strong showing for the Lib Dems will put pressure on Labour to actually support a people’s vote.
Though turning opinion polls into votes is another thing (and something the Lib Dems haven’t always been great at). Historically the party has always polled well below the local election level for the Euros (13% locals in 2014 vs 7% Euros, 28% locals in 2009 vs 13-14% Euros)
Though Lord only knows what will happen between now and polling day.
Word of caution though – my postal vote arrived on Thursday. I’ve had election comms from the Conservatives and UKIP – and looking at houses locally earlier today I saw some houses that had had a Labour one. A large chunk of PVs get returned very quickly so a whole bunch of votes will have been cast before getting a Lib Dem leaflet. That could certainly have an effect if things are tight.
Getting the Election Comm to postal voters before they vote is organisational 101. If the LIb Dems miss out on a seat in Yorkshire by a small margin it will be organisational failings like this that are to blame.
There are a lot of “Known Unknowns” about the Euros, we just dont know how accurate any Polling is & we dont know if this European Election will be like all the others, the circumstances are unique.
I was out canvassing today, for the 1st time in 4 or 5 Years & morale among our activists seems very high, with good reason. If we haven’t got literature out in your area its probably down to shortage of money, pure & simple.
We just dont know what’s going to happen but we can all make a difference.
According to the BBC the Liberal Democrat gains in the local elections have now risen to 706. Let us hope there will be even more gains than predicted on 23rd May.
Hello Lib Dems. I’m a lifelong Labour voter who decamped to the Greens for a while after the Iraq war.
I would also, until now, have described myself as a Lib Dem hater because of the party’s support for the Tories from 2010. Before that I was quite well disposed towards the party and was tempted to vote for it when its policies seemed to be moving to the left of Labour’s. But then Nick Clegg made it clear that it was not a left wing party and I was absolutely clear that I would never vote Lib Dem.
That’s now changed, and I will be voting Lib Dem in the Euro elections. The reasons, obvious enough, are Labour’s refusal to come out unequivocally for a second referendum and, by contrast, the absolute clarity of the Lib Dems in backing Remain. the clincher was the leaflet put through my door and the impressive swing in the local elections.
I may only be one straw in the wind, but I’m sure that, as John Lennon put it, I’m not the only one.
Great to hear that, Flaneur!