Thre polls published tonight:
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YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(+1) LAB 28% (nc) LIB DEM 28% (-1)
Opinium in the Express … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
ComRes for the Indy/ITV … CON 37%(-1), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 26%(+1)
And one other poll by a non-BPC polling companies, with figures as follows:
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RNB Research … CON 37%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 26%
Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows:
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CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%
With the Tories just 7-8% ahead of the Lib Dems and Labour, David Cameron will be pinning his hopes on his party out-performing their rivals in the marginals. The indication from today’s IPSO Mori poll of Labour/Tory marginals – about which Mark Pack blogged here earlier – suggests the Tories are very close to being able to do so. But they’re not there yet, as Anthony Wells explains:
The topline figures from MORI today, with changes from last week, are CON 36%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 20%(-1). This represents a slight swing to the Conservatives since a week ago, and with a 7 point swing is just about enough for the Conservatives to get an overall majority on a uniform swing. In practice however, these figures would be unlikely to produce a Tory majority – to win on a 7% swing the Conservatives would also need to gain a substantial number of seats from the Liberal Democrats, and this seems unlikely on present national polling.
At least as importantly – though so far unmentioned in the media reports of the poll – is how undecided voters are most likely to break in the Lib Dems’ favour. Here’s Reuters:
Some 36 percent of those polled said they might change their mind about who to vote for, compared with 46 percent who said the same last week. Asked who they would vote for if they did change their mind, 47 percent answered Liberal Democrat compared with 38 percent who said the same thing last week. Just under one fifth of voters would switch their vote to the Conservatives and just over one fifth would switch to Labour.
If those ‘floating’ voters do opt for the Lib Dems in the final days of the campaign, and turn out to the polls, there really is still all to play for!e
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24 Comments
Opinium is a member of the BPC, so I think the post should be edited: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers.html
The nation is heading to the polls in lemming like fashion – we must vote Labour or Tory, the Lib Dems can’t win, will somebody bright create a viral video of red and blue lemmings jumping off a cliff edge and get it circulating quick before its too late?
It’s getting uncomfortably close to not being a hung parliament. I live in a constituency which the Tories must win if they are to form a majority Government. The fight where I live is as follows:
Lab 44.7%
Con 34.4%
Lib 15.9%
Other 5%
So do I vote Lib Dem because that’s who I support? Or do I go Labour to try and ensure a hung parliament?
Thoughts?
Is there any poll evidence that Don’t Knows will switch to the LibDems too?
There’s intereting analysis of the polls at:
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
What fascinated me most is the observation that the party leading in the polls has a lower actual result than the polls indicate. This is a consistent finding, going back many elections, irrespective of whether it was CON or LAB in the lead.
Poll suggesting CONs not on course to win any seats from LDs:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/pollwatch-day-28-ge2010-lib-dems-at-2628-in-todays-polls-as-tory-support-slips-19275.html#comments
“So do I vote Lib Dem because that’s who I support? Or do I go Labour to try and ensure a hung parliament?”
I do think it’s worth bearing in mind that we are – by and large – not the people who will be hit hardest by a Tory government, and that voting for a candidate who doesn’t stand a chance of winning may be an act of self-indulgence for which others may pay the price.
The Sky News website has a full breakdown and says Tories are most unlikely to win any seats off Lib Dems, and give a breakdown of various polling in the marginals.
The Tory success does rather depend on whether the Ashcroft spadework reaps them dividends, much the same for us, frankly, the difference in winning and “doing well” comes down to what was done before the election started, the state of the local party machine, its rescources, manpower and its finance….for example, of the 15 Labour targets that could be won on around a five per cent swing to the Liberal Democrats, six months ago not all of them had their own printing press. Not all of them even had a bar-chart with the previous result showing their second place on a website that was updated regularly. Hopefully, things have changed greatly to the infrastructure in these places in recent weeks.
@ Anthony Aloysius St “and that voting for a candidate who doesn’t stand a chance of winning may be an act of self-indulgence for which others may pay the price.”
What an incredibly odd comment.
What do you think it off about it?
Hmmm. What I meant to type was:
What do you think is odd about it?
ChrisD: Remember that the best way to break this rotten voting system we have is for the LDs to come second in the popular vote. Even if there isnt a hung parliament, that will lead to irresistible calls for voting reform – possibly stronger than in a hung parliament with the LDs 3rd in the popular vote…
MBoy
For heaven’s sake don’t delude yourself about that!
Remember that both the other parties have the strongest possible reasons for resisting electoral reform. I find it difficult enough to believe they could be forced to accept it even in a hung parliament. If we end up with a Tory majority electoral reform will be absolutely out of the question.
Mboy and Anthony Aloysius St both those thoughts are weighing heavily on my mind. I think on balance that nothing will change unless there is a hung parliament and that’s why I may vote Labour, despite the fact that in a Single transferable vote system I would put them down 3rd.
I really do object to being forced against my will to vote in this way. We are slaves to the system imposed upon us by the Labour and Conservative parties. It’s so wrong! I am a Liberal Democrat and this whole thing kind of makes me feel dirty.
If the Conservatives do get in then maybe it’s time for a bit of civil disobedience. Maybe we need to start a Twitter/ facebook campaign and organise a rally in London….. The FPTP system isn’t even democratic in my view anymore.
ChrisD
>>>I really do object to being forced against my will to vote in this way. We are slaves to the system imposed upon us by the Labour and Conservative parties. It’s so wrong! I am a Liberal Democrat and this whole thing kind of makes me feel dirty.
Please vote Lib Dem. The weight of numbers will eventually tell. If you vote Labour, you just help others to minimise the extent of the problem.
Yep, dead right matey. Shouldn’t need saying…..
Tactical voting is whats wanted, but by the others. We dont do tactical voting. Liberal Democrats should vote Liberal Democrat.
“maybe it’s time for a bit of civil disobedience.” Yes, absolutley – no taxation without representation.
At the very, least checkout how the Labour Candidate stands on electoral reform
Anthony Wells comments on a Crosby-Textor poll of marginals vulnerable to the Tories in today’s Telegraph:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2676
It shows a 7.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in Labour-held marginals, which would indicate just over 100 gains, but a 3% swing _from_ the Tories _to_ the Lib Dems in Lib Dem-held marginals.
These figures are based on prompting by candidate name, which revealed increased support for incumbent MPs compared with the unprompted results – so they may not be a good guide to what will happen in Tory-held Lib Dem target seats.
Anthony Wells also points out that if sampling had been evenly spread across the seats, the total sampling size for the Lib Dem seats would be “absurdly small” – which is borne out by the observation that the Labour rating is surely too low at only 3%. So the figures for Lib Dem seats are probably meaningless anyway, though they’re obviously plausible enough in the light of national polls. Given the lack of numeracy demonstrated last month by the Telegraph’s political staff over the YouGov weighting affair, perhaps it’s not so strange that they would publish statistically meaningless survey results …
The Labour rating at 3% probably is far too low. However, recall the last time a leading Labour politician hinted that Labour voters should vote tactically. That was Peter Mandelson in Newbury in 1993. Labour got 2.5%, the lowest vote for any Labour candidate anywhere in living memory. The effect of Messrs Adonis, Balls and Hain emulating Mandelson combined with the absence of Labour spoiling campaigns this time round, and the tendentious headlines in the media acclaiming Cameron as the winner before the election has actually taken place, will be interesting.
You can be sure Wednesday’s headlines in the Murdochian press will read something like: ‘Cameron surge–LibDems in Freefall’ or something equally odious and incorrect. An outright Conservative victory would be a tragedy for the UK. I’m glad I live in Australia!
I live in a Labour held seat high on the Tory target list where there is no Lib Dem presence whatsoever. What do I do? Do I vote Lib Dem, and possibly allow the Tories to win by one vote and Cameron form a government with a majority of one? Or do I vote Labour? I know that a vote for Labour is a vote for the Iraq war, martial law for under-16s, ID cards, the extradition of Gary McKinnon, etc. Voting Labour would be like taking poison. But what is the alternative? The triumphalist headlines in today’s press are terrifying, and they should and will concentrate minds. A minority Labour government propped up by (or in coalition with) us might give us PR. An outright Tory win will mean we never get PR. What do I do on Thursday morning?
Maybe you should view it as a “pairing arrangement” with a committed Labour supporter somewhere else who is voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out, even though s/he may have strong objections to some aspects of Lib Dem policy?
Senesco,
I would urge you to vote Lib Dem, as sheer weight of numbers will eventually tell. If, however, you are really minded to vote against a Conservative government, then perhaps you should first examine the attendance and voting records of your intended anti-Conservative candidate and his or her parliamentary expenses. You might also wish to examine that candidate’s openness to the four core Lib Dem pledges in this general election, perhaps asking for a public commitment to them.
Senesco, every victim of bullying & blackmail who gives in makes it harder for every other victim. We are not facing a choice of greater & lesser evils, we are facing one evil, a corrupt Establishment.
I am begging you to vote for what you know is right & not out of fear. One in every six voters are still thinking about switching to us, half of those would be enough to make us the largest Party. This is the moment when we need to beleive in ourselves & in each other, we can do it!
Right I’ve decided I just can’t vote Labour. I’m Lib Dem through and through. And at the end of the day I know the local Lib Dems work really hard against the odds. So to support them I’m voting Lib Dem! It doesn’t feel right to vote Labour as worried as I am at the thought that the Cons may get in.