Just how powerful is Global Britain, as the country walks out of the EU door? The question has taken on a certain urgency given the disturbing events of the last few days regarding Iran.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the country’s most senior nuclear scientist, was assassinated on the outskirts of Tehran on Friday. The Iranians immediately blamed Israel, which is not as outrageous a claim as some the Islamic Republic makes. Tel Aviv has made no secret of its wish to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions – as it did earlier with Iraq – and Dr Fakhrizadeh was not the first leading Iranian scientist to be “taken out”. Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has at times made graphic presentations about what he sees as the Iranian nuclear threat.
Disturbingly, reactions in the Iranian media over the weekend included the suggestion that Haifa should be targeted for reprisals – even though would mean civilian casualties. The security situation for the whole region has suddenly got a whole lot worse.
This has not been helped by the posturing of the Trump administration in Washington. It may be in its dying days but both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seem determined to keep the embers burning long enough to take a hefty swipe at Iran. US military aircraft have increased their presence in the Gulf and there have been repeated “rumours” that the White House is planning to hit Iran hard over the next few weeks. That would be taking Pompeo’s strategy of “maximum pressure” on Iran up to a whole new, potentially catastrophic level.
So where is Britain in all this? Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab made a principled but rather weak call for calm in the wake of the Fakhrizadeh assassination. But was anyone listening? As a UN Security Council member, the UK should nonetheless still have an important voice on such matters. But of course, it has plenty of history with Iran – not all of it positive.
The Iranians often refer to Britain as the “old cunning fox”, remembering both how the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company screwed their country out of its natural resources and how Britain backed a coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh when he tried to put a stop to that. That should not prevent London stepping up to the plate as the tension grows, however.
Britain is a self-declared friend of both Washington and Tel Aviv. Whoever really was behind the latest killing it is important that the voice of reason be heard loud and clear. That includes standing firm on getting the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal back in force, as President-elect Joe Biden has indicated he will.
An attack on either Iran or Israel meanwhile could enflame the whole of the Middle East region. In this regard, let us pray meanwhile that the Trump administration decides to go out not with a bang but with a whimper.
* Jonathan Fryer is Chair of the Federal International Relations Committee.
4 Comments
Israel is probably the perpetrator but do not rule out Saudi Arabia, Gulf states or US[or combination]
Good point, Jonathan. Was there a Liberal Democrat response to the assassination?
Words of sense from Jonathan. The Western countries and particularly the USA, make a big mistake when they regard Iran as being obscurantist and naive. It needs to be remembered that the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, has a degree and a PhD in law from Glasgow Caledonian University and the Foreign Minister, Mohammed Javad Zarif, spent eleven years in education in the the USA. Both speak fluent English and are very capable at dealing with Western politics.
Also, Iran is not one homogenous country. Tehran is a sophisticated city with many modern educated young people who live a somewhat more secular life than many in the West realise. The dominant Islamic powers rely on support of the bulk of the country outside Tehran, particularly in religious centres such as Qom.
UK diplomacy needs to impress on the USA – which may be more receptive in a Biden presidency – that it is crucial to engage with Rouhani and Zarif and to strengthen their political influence in relation to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, with whom they have always to compromise. Ranting about Iran’s Shia excesses and isolating the country will simply drive it further into the hands of the extremists.
It may be twisting in the wind, but we might hope that Rouhani will understand that Trump and Netanyahu are setting up Biden for a conflict that will undermine any attempts he makes to resuscitate the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal. Last time round the US engaged in this behaviour Iran acheived a remarkable retaliation which Trump could brush off rather than escalate the conflict.
However a big assumption it might be, if this appalling act of war can be put to one side, I do wonder how the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal can have any credibility given the likelihood of the Republicans retaking the presidency in 4 years time?