Tag Archives: global warming

Tom Arms’ World Review

Donald Trump

Trump loves a winner. He is less keen on anyone blocking his objectives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used to be the former and is now the latter. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky used to the be latter and is now the former.

This was apparent to anyone watching the visits to Washington this week of Zelensky and Netanyahu. Zelensky and Trump were all smiles. Zelensky described the talks as “a good meeting” and the White House used the term “cordial.”  The bilateral summit was in stark contract to the February 2025 Oval Office showdown when Trump and Vice President Vance set out to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian leader.

Part of the explanation is simple: In February 2025, Ukraine was on the defensive, if not losing. By the summer of 2026 it had regained the initiative and for the first time in many months, was looking capable of improving its position, if not winning the war outright.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, won no favours when he refused to endorse Trump’s latest plans for Gaza. Trump ignored him and announced that Hamas had agreed to disarm. The Israeli leader also hurt his cause by having what were described as “frank discussions” in a private meeting with Vance – diplomatic shorthand for almighty row.

There is also the fact that Netanyahu is widely reported as having persuaded Trump to join him in an attack on Iran. It would be over quickly, he assured the president. It isn’t and Trump, America and rest of the world are suffering because of it.

The changing mood is reflected in Congress.  Support for Ukraine has become broader and more enthusiastic. Israel still commands considerable backing, but Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran has created fissures in its previously rock-solid bipartisan support.

Israel

Israeli West Bank settlers don’t have much time. There is a good chance that the complexion of the government  may change after elections on October 27 and the orthodox parties that back their West Bank land grab will be out.

So, they are seizing more territory and provoking more confrontations with Palestinian residents, calculating that this will lead the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to deploy more troops to the area and facilitate more land grabs. “We are definitely initiating friction and we’re proud of this,” Elisha Yered, an outspoken settler leader, said in a recent interview.

The IDF claims to be enforcing order. But it has overseen a steep rise in violence against Palestinians. In the first six months of 2026 there were 660 “nationalistic” attacks in the West Bank, up from 405 in the previous six months, according to the Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency.

In some cases, soldiers have tried to restrain settlers, who have responded with violence. But in many more cases soldiers, either acting on their own initiative or as part of organised units, have been seen taking part in attacks against Palestinians or protecting settlers carrying them out.

The IDF has set up protective cordons around new settlements and built roads to dozens of them. In many cases the work destroyed swathes of orchards and vineyards owned by Palestinians.

The surge in violence seems likely to reap more violence. For the past three years, the war in Gaza has occupied Palestinian militants. But events in the West Bank have made an armed backlash or a more widespread Palestinian uprising there a distinct possibility.

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Climate change – how bad can it get?

“A bullet fired through the head can have an adverse effect on brain function”. This is the sort of language in which the risks from climate change are sometimes discussed.  In other circles the language of catastrophe is preferred, with the possibility of human extinction sometimes thrown in.

Those of us who are concerned about global warming and other environmental threats have various motivations. For some, the injustice of what rich-world carbon emissions have inflicted on other countries is paramount. For some, a deep love of the natural world and a perception of environmental vandalism comes top. I feel both those things strongly but, most of all, I feel that human civilisation at its best is glorious and remarkable but fragile. We seem in danger of throwing it away by our lack of concern for the biosphere that supports it. I fear a possible future in which much of the world is rendered uninhabitable, civilisation has broken down and most of human life is nasty, brutish and short. That’s what I call catastrophe.

The received wisdom, at least until recently, seems to have been that it’s counter-productive to talk about global warming in apocalyptic terms. That may be right but it risks our under-estimating the damage that climate change could cause. From the evidence I have encountered, I simply can’t rule out the possibility of a global catastrophe resulting from climate change.  That possibility is amplified by the fragility of some of our political systems and hence of our civilisation.

Looking at regimes governing some of the most populous countries in the world, not to mention politics in the USA and the UK, I can’t feel confident that catastrophe will be avoided.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 9 Comments

Vision 2021 – a radical manifesto for a changing world

As you grow older you see things differently. Way back in 2003 as the new Chair of Tim Farron’s Campaign Committee I thought that, before we started campaigning, we should set out a few areas like education, health and housing where we needed some clear thinking. Though Tim was reluctant, we pulled together a few sensible people and we talked the issues through.

It is probably a good time for some more clear thinking now.

Where to begin? Well let us start with the most pressing problem facing mankind – that of global warming. Last year I thought the problem was insoluble but now I believe it can and will be solved though there will be more casualties and unnecessary costs if we do not get on with it.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 16 Comments
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