Kashmir
Donald Trump says that the Kashmir problem goes back thousands of years and is very complicated, which is his way of saying that he doesn’t want to be involved.
To be honest we can talk about the roots of Hinduism, the invasion of the Mughals, the British Empire, and etcetera. But in reality the Kashmir problem dates back to the 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent.
At that time the semi-autonomous kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir was given the option to join India or Pakistan. But there was a snag. The monarch—Maharaja Hari Singh was a Hindu while the majority of the population was Muslim.
Initially, the Maharaja tried to solve the problem by opting for independence. However, in October 1947, tribal militias from Pakistan invaded Kashmir. This prompted the Maharaja to seek military assistance from India. In return, he signed the Instrument of Accession, formally agreeing to join India. The result was the First Indo-Pakistani War (1947–1948).
The conflict ended with a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in 1949, which established a Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir between Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani-administered Azad Kashmir. The UN also called for a plebiscite to allow the people of Kashmir to choose between India and Pakistan. This never happened.
Kashmir has remained a flashpoint ever since. India and Pakistan have fought additional wars over the region—in 1965 and 1999—and tensions persist with frequent military skirmishes along the LoC.
In addition to the international dimension, Kashmir also faces internal unrest. From 1989 onward, a violent separatist insurgency emerged in Indian-administered Kashmir, fuelled by dissatisfaction with Indian rule, human rights abuses, and support for militants from across the border. This insurgency has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and widespread suffering among civilians.
Then in August 2019, Narendra Modi’s Indian government, revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted Jammu and Kashmir a special autonomous status. This was followed by a heavy military crackdown, internet shutdowns, and the detention of local leaders.
Just to make things more complicated, China also holds a portion of the region (Aksai Chin) and has its own disputes with India and tends to side with Pakistan.
This is all very troubling, but what makes it more so is the nuclear dimension. In 1998 both countries started building nuclear arsenals and they both have about 170 nuclear warheads each. India has a No First Use policy. Pakistan does not. This presumably means that if Pakistan is faced what it regarded as an existential threat then it would feel justified in the nuclear option.
Following the recent murder of 26 Indian tourists in Kashmir, India has threatened to scupper the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and cut Pakistan off from water which it needs to survive. This has been interpreted as an existential threat.
To complicate matters further, Israel—with its estimated 160 nuclear warheads—is paranoid about the “Islamic bomb” represented by Pakistan. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu also has close relations with India’s Narendra Modi.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is not known for ethnical behaviour. In fact, he may be one of the most corrupt presidents in American history. And American politics have been known for their corruption throughout the country’s nearly 250-year history.
In his first term, President Trump was attacked for promoting his newly-acquired International Hotel in Washington DC as THE Washington hostelry. His message was clear to foreign and domestic visitors: stay at my hotel and I will looking kindly on you. Guess where visitors stayed?
Whenever Trump upped sticks and moved to the Florida White House at Mar-a-Lago (which was quite often) he took with him a large retinue of Secret Service agents and White House staff. He charged the government for the privilege. This earned him an estimated $2 million net in his first four years. The practice continued when he was out of office and in his second term.