Am I alone in thinking our response to the local election results is a little too self-congratulatory? Of course we should broadcast our success in increasing our councillor count yet again and congratulate everyone who worked hard to make it happen.
But for me, the main message of the elections is that Britain now faces the nightmare prospect of a far-right totalitarian government. William Hill now has Reform 11-10 on to win the most seats in 2029. The next takeaway is that we, the Liberal Democrats, have a critical role in stopping it.
Almost exactly a year ago, Lib Dem Voice ran a piece that I wrote after the 2025 local elections when I was part of a winning team in Trowbridge, Wiltshire, beating Reform into second place in six out of seven divisions.
There, we developed an anti-Reform playbook based on our doorstep experiences. It included some rebuttal of Reform claims – to make people pause for thought – but more importantly, it offered a positive alternative in the shape of strong candidates and their vision for the town. Reform appealed to the worst instincts of voters. We appealed to the best.
Reform also appeal to the heart rather than the mind, so the response has to be directed to the same place. Logic doesn’t work – no more than it does with someone who’s fallen in love with a rat.
Last year I wrote that this needed a proper strategy, “a solid and well-researched plan for the rest of this Parliament”. I sent that blog to senior party members and I was told that action was underway. We even had a “Reform Watch” group. Anyone heard of it? It seems to be a self-help group for councillors, anything but a national campaign.
True, we have produced literature designed to woo anti-Reform voters. That’s fine, but it’s a bit like appealing to students in 2010 or Remainers in 2019. It feels like it’s done mainly because we see an inviting shoal of votes emerging, rather than out of a deep-seated desire to prevent a far-right nightmare. And it won’t stop Reform winning in the Trowbridges of this world because we can’t count on enough people being motivated to vote tactically. To win in such places and stop the Farage bandwagon, we need to attract soft Reform voters – good people who are being fooled by lies and distortions. It’s a huge mission. It requires:
- Fundraising – a big, public push to raise cash from those who fear Reform and have money to donate;
- Research – deep understanding of Reform-leaning segments, who they are, where they live, what they are motivated by;
- Messaging – well-honed messages that land with the target voters;
- Channels – a strategy to ensure the messages reach the right people – both old school leaflets and cutting edge social media, for example matching Reform in the TikTok feeds of young men.
Running through all this needs to be that sparkling alternative emotional appeal. For me the starting point would be to get among, and have policies to help, Britain’s good-hearted majority. Care is central as it touches so many, but we also need to be the party of the millions who are active in local communities: running lunch clubs for elderly people, sports clubs for youngsters, food banks, charities and youth groups. Interestingly, research by Hope not Hate shows that nature is another topic close to the heart of many potential Reform voters.
Stunts have served Ed Davey well in earning coverage but it’s time to pivot from being Mr Fun to being Mr Community – popping up in the places where the real goodness of Britain resides. Farage’s tone connects with the anger of working class voters. Ed can connect with their hope.
In 2024 we got 12% of the vote, Reform got 14% and the Greens 6%. Today, we are pretty much still on or around 12%. Meanwhile, Reform have roughly doubled their share and the Greens have caught up with us. That’s despite the millions of volunteer-hours spent on the streets. The message: we simply must find new ways to get national coverage as well as building our local support. We are in a 1930s scenario, sleepwalking into what could end as full-on fascism and the end of liberal Britain. Everything has to be subordinated to stopping Farage getting to Number 10 and our priority should be to play our part in that historic mission. Let’s do it.
* David Vigar was Paddy Ashdown’s Press Secretary in the 1990s and is an activist in the Melksham and Devizes constituency.
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14 Comments
Reaction to Reform tends to swing between complacency & hysteria & Libdems tend to the complacency end. This article has many useful ideas & the only bit I disagree with is the idea that Reform are headed for Government.
Forget what the betting odds say, they have always been a very poor means of predicting anything, most Political Betting is wishcasting with a strong Right-wing bias.
Reform peaked last Autumn & have a lot farther to fall, the only doubt is how fast. They may get a temporary bounce on the back of Thursdays results, we should know in a few weeks, if so then we will likely get a repeat of last Years pattern, up then down with more down than up.
The Reform bubble is deflating but that doesn’t stop the harm they have already done.
What we seem to be doing about it is what Labour have done: telling our left flank that they’re stupid for voting green (which a lot of them did). it’ll have the same result: the left flank of our core are deserting us for the greens, and the leadership are coming out with this absolutely stupid line that greens and reform are morally equivalent.
“The nice people we mostly agree with and you just voted for are just as extreme as the fascists” is not only obviously wrong and stupid, it weakens our attacks on reform because it legitimises them by messaging that they and the greens are equal in validity.
The leadership won’t hear this, though, because they don’t want to. They’re laser-focused on a vanishingly small number of soft tories that we have not yet won over, and ignoring the fact that the greens offer a far more convincing vision to Kennedy-era liberals.
I agree with the article and with Jennie. We need to speak to the heart and the proverbial gut as well as the head and we need to be radical in our proposals to get the U.K. out of the mess it’s in. Green bashing is counter productive although Polanski bashing needs to be incessant.
I speak as a great fan of Kennedy but also a Steel era Liberal !
David, I completely agree. Stunts have made Davey and by extension the party look like a laughing stock at a time when we need to have a serious response. For a hard-working party we are far too complacent about things. Many MPs have told me that its votes cast and seats won that are more important than opinion poll ratings. Well, it looks like opinion poll ratings have led to huge gains for the Greens and Reform, so we really need to up our game and stop being so complacent.
Paul – I agree that a Reform government is a possibility rather than a probability, and I don’t look to William Hill for political wisdom! But I think any slight risk of such a national disaster needs to be responded to with an organised campaign. Brexit should have taught us that. Jennie, I agree we are vulnerable to the Greens but one way to retain our left flank is to stand up to Reform as the party of compassion that welcomes genuine refugees. Roger – I also joined the Liberals in the Steel era! And I agree we need to speak to the heart and be braver. Dominic – to be clear I have actually been quite a fan of the stunts. As a former party leader’s press officer, I know how hard it is to get into the news and so understand that imperfect ways to do so are better than none. But I think we now need to see Ed the carer as well as Ed the joker. And I agree on upping the game. Votes cast and seats won are important when you see the world from inside the party looking out and you are seeking incremental progress. But if you step outside the party bubble and see what’s happening to Britain as a whole, then for me, the big over-riding question becomes that of what we as a party can do to stop fascism taking over our country.
There is no doubt that a Reform government would be a right-wing government, persung policies we would find detestable but to suggest that means it would also be “totalitarian” or “full-on fascism” is complete hyperbole. I say this not to defend Reform in any way but to caution that using such language to describe Reform means that we have nothing more extreme to describe the really extreme parties like the National Front and Britain First.
Paul, i think the time for stunts has come and gone. Speak to anyone outside the party about them and while people know about them, it also makes them think we are not serious. The problem is that party staff – and dare i say, MPs – only seem to consider the former metric and not the latter. I sadly think the problem is now both the message and the messenger – ED is a lovely man with great success under his belt, but he is not the communicator we need at this time. He needs to set in place his own timetable for departure now.
Joan – I agree that Reform currently looks less extreme than Britain First and the Natioanl Front – though the quietness of the the latter may suggest that their supporters are now in Reform. What I wrote was “…what could end as full-on fascism”. So yes, it could be that Reform turn out like the Brothers of Italy – less right-wing in actions than words. But I wouldn’t count on it. We don’t really know what PM Farage would do. He’s clearly tried to position Reform as less extreme than his previous vehicles such as UKIP in order to have a wider appeal. But once in power …? His reported support for Hitler at school can be dismissed as youthful stupidity, but recent videos where he’s used the phrase “If in doubt, kick ’em out” cannot. More here: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2026/mar/17/nigel-farage-videos-support-rioter-neonazi-event-far-right-slogans
@ Dominic Curran ” I think the time for stunts has come and gone.”
Agreed, Dominic, except that the time for stunts should never have come in the first place. Show pony stuff and surprising anyone should think otherwise. Given the state of things with Farage and chums we need heavy artillery not squeaky penny whistles.
From Wikipedia’s report on the local elections:
If applied to the House of Commons, it was projected that Reform UK would have 284 seats, Labour 110, Conservatives 96, Liberal Democrats 80, SNP 36, Plaid Cymru 13, Green 13, and others 18. The BBC’s Projected National Vote, a similar projection, put party support at Reform with 26%, Greens 18%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 17% and Liberal Democrats 16%.
So: Reform, with Tory support, would have a comfortable overall majority in Parliament – 380 seats against a Lab / LD / Green total of 203.
However – Reform plus the Tories got 43% of the vote, while Lab / LD / Green got a combined total 51% of the vote!
The Right can easily take power in 2029 without a formal coalition. Their opponents can beat them – but only if they can come together.
Labour are too preoccupied with their leadership predicament to think about that right now. The Lib Dems and Greens can and should be thinking about their combined 34% of the vote – which on a FPTP basis, could beat Reform’s 26% by a country mile!
@Joan: they’re happily boasting about their plans for concentration camps, I don’t think it’s hyperbole at all
I agree with Rigg
@Mick Taylor “I agree with Rigg”
As do I.
(And with the main article (and Tara’s one))
What those who oppose the far right gaining any further ground should do is stop doing things that facilitate it. Our whole structure of politics and governance is giving them an open goal. We must look beyond our short term gains to working with others to build the structures that will allow a multi-party system to flourish, reflecting the views of the majority of the electorate.