At the beginning of the year various BBC correspondents gave their predictions for the year ahead. Conspicuous by its absence was any prediction that Trump would get indicted this year and the monumental impact that would have on US and international politics. I for one wondered how they could miss something so obvious?
Now he has been indicted and the political tension is building. As I write there is speculation that because of the danger he represents to the community, Trump may be subject to pre-trial detention. In addition, there is also speculation that Trump may be disqualified from standing as president by the 14th amendment of the constitution if he has engaged in “insurrection or rebellion against” the United States.
In theory the law should be applied equally to everyone and regardless of the political implications. So both of these things should happen in my opinion. Regardless of whether they do, the politics of all this are appalling.
Trump supporters claim that Trump is innocent of all the allegations made against him, and that Democrats are responsible for the coup in January 2020 when Biden became president by a rigged election. They claim that the Democrats in government are now arresting Trump and his supporters for “no reason” apart from political revenge.
It makes no difference to them that the evidence piling up against Trump in the forthcoming court cases comes from Republican sources – the very reason why the case against him is so compelling – and that many of the convictions handed out over the January 6th rioters are being made by Trump appointed judges.
Yet opinion polls show that Trump is almost certain to win the Republican nomination to stand for president and that he is neck and neck with Joe Biden.
Trump has openly said that “retribution” will be his priority when he is elected president next year. Trump supporters now expect that Trump’s opponents, including from within his own party will be arrested and sent to jail for treason when he is elected next year. Some, like the influential radio host Stew Peters has called for Dr Fauci and Hunter Biden to be hanged. Government workers will be purged and replaced by Trump supporters, removing anyone from government that says no to Trump. Trump will be an all-powerful president where the law does not apply.
If Biden wins the election next year, Trump will claim once again it is stolen and his gun toting supporters will join the far-right militias in even greater numbers, dramatically increasing the threats for domestic terrorism.
We in Europe need to consider the implications of a Trump presidency. Trump will stop supporting Ukraine and allow Russia to settle the war on their terms and there is a strong possibility that the US will leave NATO. We need to start planning for a NATO without the US just in case, and I for one have no idea how that would work.
Traditionally conservatives have argued that they oppose socialism because that leads to communism and tyranny. Today we need to be aware of the dangers of conservatism, that it can also lead to populism and tyranny.
* Geoff Payne is a member of the SLF council
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18 Comments
The US polls mainly shown Biden and Trump in the mid 40s each, that leaves the key 10 -15% who are ambivalent to both but who will be likely to support a Democrat just because he or she is not Trump. Could well be a Democrat landslide.
I actually think Trump may not get the nomination. He appears to have maximised his Republican support and that can only slip backwards as the voting season develops., and in so many States others from other parties/Independents can vote in a party primary.
If Haley was their candidate they would probably win.
What might be the costs and benefits of the U S A ceasing to support/arm Ukraine in the current conflict?
What might a cost- benefit of the U S A’s leaving N A T O tell us?
Ukraine dismembered. Mass arrests and torture. Georgia dismembered. Moldova dismembered. Suwalki gap Finland Poland and Baltic States threatened. Not to mention what China and Iran would do. I hope that answers your question
The polls show Biden and Trump close as you say but usually they also show figures for both in the mid 40’s. In most recent elections the outstanding 10% has gone anti Trump, so on that basis it will be a Democrat win.
However it is by no means clear that Trump will get the nomination, he appears to be pretty well stuck at just over 50%, he looks miles ahead but again the polls show for instance in a Trump v De Santis contest there are 30%+ who do not say, again they may well be anti Trump.
Put a bet on Haley, reckon she would win it for the Republicans.
Might the European nations do better for their peoples if they ceased to hide behind the USA/being part of the U S A “empire”?
.
Might they become more self-reliant and socio-economically more secure and less involved in avoidable, now worldwide, conflicts which seem to have the (unstated) purpose of making the USA the sole, dominating world power?
I think it is very unlikely that Trump will lose the nomination, but if he does – for the sake of argument – I think he will stand as an independent and that will seriously split the Republican vote and the Democrats will win. Trump supporters will be furious about that and many will join the right wing paramilitaries, roughly the same scenario as if Biden beats Trump but this time there will be more Republicans politicians at risk as well.
Well said Steve
A negotiated end to the war NOW would pre-empt Trump’s boast he can end the war by talking to Putin et al as he claimed in his interview on the night of the Republican candidates debate.
Thanks and a tip of the hat to John Waller!
Is it entirely reasonable and/or even kind for a society of which its government ignores the data that some 25+% of our/their children are kept permanently hungry, can afford to send tanks worth some £4.2 Mln to Ukraine to be destroyed?
http://www.moonofalabama.org
P.S. Does this incident indicate that such tanks might not be worth£4.2 Mln?
@John – Trump doesn’t need to be president to talk to Putin… I suspect if Trump did get an agreement with Putin, he would probably also secure his second term in the White House… Which would suggest his claims are just fight talk…
A US withdrawal from NATO, would also effectively be an end to the special relationship, and another nail in the Brexit coffin…
@Steve Trevethan – Regardless of the “book value” of a Challenger tank, not sending an existing tank to Ukraine doesn’t create extra money to feed children. Are you arguing that we shouldn’t support Ukraine, or that we should cut defence spending?
Nobody said that Challenger tanks were immune to Russian weapons, but they are better than old Soviet tanks. It has been reported that despite the tank being disabled, the crew survived the attack. That has value.
The thought of a Trump presidency is worrying.
What is also worrying / concerning, is the repeated linking of websites that have been identified as pro-Kremlin and actively promote Russian propaganda. LDV has discussed the malign influence of Russian propaganda in the EU referendum so it is alarming to see it take hold here.
“Moon of Alabama is a pro-Kremlin website that at least one extremist researcher has reported to Hoaxlines is popular with QAnon and other conspiracy groups. Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moon of Alabama had been referenced or shared by pro-Kremlin, QAnon, and White Supremacist groups. Recently, Moon of Alabama has also been cited by the Belarusian KGB, Russian-language channels, and hyperpartisan English-language channels.”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pro-kremlin-outlets-amplify-content-casts-doubt-ukrainian-li
“Overall, we rate Moon of Alabama Left as Biased and questionable based on the promotion of pro-Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories, the use of poor sources, false claims, and a lack of transparency.”
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/moon-of-alabama/
@EricP
Please check that my website is not a pro-Kremlin website that at least one extremist researcher has reported to Hoaxlines is popular with QAnon and other conspiracy groups
2022 – 14 May – Patrick Cockburn wrote in the iNews: ”Mission creep” from a policy of defending Ukraine to one of defeating Russia has been going on since early in the war, but lately it has become more of a “mission gallop”. In expanding their war aims, the US and the Nato powers are doing Ukrainians no favours, but they are dooming them to living in an area where outside fight each other over issues that have nothing to do with Ukraine. This was the fate of Syria after 2011, producing endless war and turning half the population into refugees.
2022 – 22 September – he wrote: ‘more probable that the war will go on and on without producing a victor, as has happened so often in recent military conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa.’
2023 – 19 – August 19 he wrote: ‘Nothing but dire news has poured out of Afghanistan over the past two years since the Taliban captures Kabul on 15 August 2022. . . It took sustained incompetence on the part of US and British leaders to lose the war in Afghanistan, a failure that is worrying since the same sort of people are in charge today of issues of war and peace in Ukraine.
Maybe we should ask ourselves why so many Americans feel that disenfranchised they are prepared to support DT .
Theakes,
Trump polled 3 million less votes than Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. He won by targeting the swing states that had the electoral college votes to get him over the line. Ultimately, the election was decided on the basis of 70,000 swing votes across Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
A fact check organisation calculated that only 4% of Trumps campaign messages were actually true. The remaining 96% was fake news and BS. As are all the false claims about the 2020 election false claims about the 2020 election.
The Guardian reports that Trumps strategy was devised by the billionaire data scientist Robert Mercer who acquired Breitbart News and brought in the Alt-right editor Steve Bannon as Trumps campaign CEO. Cambridge Analytica, a British owned psychometric influencing firm were hired to target the swing voters with personalised campaign posts on facebook tailored to their preference as disclosed by psychometric analysis of their online engagement. The same firm was engaged by the Vote Leave campaign for the Brexit referendum Revealed: how US billionaire helped to back Brexit
Several industries have been disrupted by online technology. That same technology has now come to politics and democracy itself. Psychometric influencing has its origins in military Psyops. The same techniques have long been employed by military intelligence around the world. It now appears to be used by the Kremlin in particular in its efforts to disrupt the Western social order and spread disinformation to undermine US and European support for Ukraine’s struggle for the right to self-determination.
Might money spent on give away tanks have been spent on food for our always hungry children and, perhaps, our rotting schools etc?
Might we here be facing money spending choices, not money spending creation?
But, as we have a sovereign currency, the government does create money. It has the choice of how much and upon whom or what it is spent.
Might H M G increase its tax revenue by charging everyone with a significant income, 15% N. I, instead of only those in direct work, so that there is more money for H M G spending?
Might we benefit the regular people of Ukraine and Russia by working for a cease fire and a negotiated settlement?
P S.
Below is an article on the inefficiency/inequity of our taxation set up from Richard Murphy’s blog “Funding the Future”.
Might our party try to do something visible about it?
http://www.bing.com/search?q=libdemvoice&aqs=edge.0.69i64i450l8.185319
Joe, yes those states were targeted by the Democrats 3 years ago, hence the turnaround, Georgia the prime example, Minnesota, Wisconsin and of course the prize Arizona.
But I have serious doubts that Trump will be the candidate.
The Guns vs butter is a false one. Frankly I am appalled that we are falling back on it, contrary to our history and traditions. Lloyd George found a way through the People’s Budget. We need to invoke the spirit of that.
A rushed negotiated peace ahead of a Trump victory will just be another breathing space for Putin to rearm and try again. It seems we never learn.
I will be damned if this becomes the party of appeasement.