Tariffs

There is a major contradiction at the core of the tariffs that Donald Trump announced this week.

Trump says that the tariffs have the dual purpose of revitalising American industry—especially the car industry—and raising billions in tax revenues which will allow him to cut other taxes.

The problem is that one will cancel out the other. If, as hoped, Americans eschew foreign cars to buy American, then other countries will stop exporting their cars (and car components) to the US. Thus the revenue from tariffs will substantially decline.

Trump vs Europe

If Europe wanted more reasons to re-evaluate its relationship with the US, Signalgate has provided them.

Trump has imposed tariffs. Vice President Vance used the Munich Security Conference to attack European values. But that was in public. Sometimes what is said behind closed doors—among like-minded friends—is more revealing.

Vance expressed some blunt opinions on America’s European allies. He said any airstrikes would benefit Europe more than America. He that three percent of US cargo passed through the Suez Canal compared to 40 percent of European goods.

“I just hate bailing Europe out again,” said the Vice President. “Let’s just make sure our messaging is right here.”

Hegseth also was not a European fan. “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading,” he said. It’s PATHETIC. But Mike is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close.”

The two men went on to agree that they should find a way to force the Europeans to pay for the attack on Yemen.

US targets foreign students

Turkish PhD Student Rumeysa Ozturk was on her way to dinner at a Boston restaurant when six people with their faces covered by scarves, hoodies and large dark sunglasses surrounded her.

“We are police, and you are under arrest,” they told the 30-year-old Tufts University student. They failed to show any identification, quickly cuffed Ms Ozturk and bundled her into an SUV. The incident was captured on a surveillance camera.

Ms Ozturk is the latest foreign student to be arrested for protesting against Israel’s war in Gaza. Her specific crime appears to have been writing an op-ed for the student newspaper supporting calls for Tufts University to divest from companies with ties to Israel.

Within hours, a Boston judge, issued an order prohibiting her removal from Massachusetts. Sorry, came back the reply from the Department of Homeland Security, she is already in a Louisiana detention centre. Oh, and by the way, her, student visa has been revoked.

The same fate has befallen two other foreign students—Mahmoud Khalil from Columbia University and Bada Khan Suri from Georgetown University. Each of them exercised their right of free speech under the US constitution’s First Amendment and were arrested for doing so. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that there “at least” another 300 foreign students whose visas have been revoked for “anti-Semitic behaviour.”

Foreign visitors—including students—have to abide by American laws. But they are also protected by American law. This includes the right of free speech, legal representation and a fair hearing. But without a student visa they cannot stay in the country to defend themselves.

Taliban talk

The Trump Administration is talking to the Taliban. That is the only conclusion that can be drawn from the release last week of US citizen George Glezman.

Especially as it followed the visit to Kabul of US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad with the specific brief of springing Glezman from the Afghan gaol in which he has been languishing for the past two years.

Khalilzad’s trip was the first to Afghanistan by an American official for four years and included the additional instructions to establish a communication channel. To facilitate his mission Washington lifted the bounties on three senior Taliban leaders.

Qatar has represented US interests in Afghanistan since the shambolic American evacuation, will continue in this role for the foreseeable future and was involved in the negotiations to release Glezmann.

But the Trump Administration wants more. Specifically, the release of remaining US citizens still held; the return of US weapons left behind in the rushed departure and counter-terrorism measures against the Afghan-based Jihadist group Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K).

They are likely to achieve some cooperation on confronting IS-K. The terrorist group poses a bigger threat to the Taliban than to American interests. Weapons, not so likely, as they are useful source of income on the international arms market as well as helping to arm Taliban militia.

The release of more American citizens is likely to be done on a straight transactional basis; possibly related to the release of Taliban members held at Guantanamo and/or the return of Afghan funds in Western banks in return for the release of American prisoners. Either course should appeal to transactionally-minded Trump.

The tropical Trump

He is the “Tropical Trump.” At least that is how the US president has described Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.
There is no doubt that the two men are ideological bedfellows. They both cast themselves as political victims and champions against the liberal elite. They oppose climate change. They hate the “deep state”, universities, students, journalists and the courts.

But there is a big difference. Trump is in the White House. Bolsonaro this week appeared in court charged with the “violent abolition of the democratic rule of law” along with a slew of other charges including conspiracy to commit murder.

According to the prosecution—who have supporting testimony from one of Bolsonaro’s senior aides—the ex-Brazilian president “knew, handled and discussed” plans for a coup to overthrow President Lula da Silva and replace him with a military government headed by Bolsonaro. They also planned to poison da Silva and other leading figures including Justice Andre de Moraes, who is currently overseeing the five-person judicial panel presiding in the Bolsonaro trial.

The coup attempt started with a claim that the vote was rigged, because there was no way that Bolsonaro could have lost a fair election (sound familiar?). Right-wing protesters camped out in front of the military barracks demanding that the army move to overthrow the result and, after Lula was inaugurated, stormed the Brazilian capital in a clear echo of America’s January 6 riots.

And like the American attack, the Brazilian rioters failed in their mission. The duly-elected Lula da Silva stayed in power. But unlike the US, the Brazilian courts moved quickly against Bolsonaro and he was barred from running for office until 2030. This cleared the way for his trial which could—if Bolsonaro is convicted—lead to his being permanently barred and imprisoned for 12 to 40 years.

So far the Trump response to his Brazilian soulmate’s problems has been relatively muted. His media company, Trump Media, has attacked Justice Moraes for “illegally censoring right wing voices in social media”. The Supreme Court Justice has blocked both Elon Musk’s X platform and another platform called Rumble for allowing hate speech.

At the moment Bolsonaro is not being held in prison and his son has said the former Brazilian president may flee to America to seek political asylum from his friend in the White House. Justice Moraes has said that if Bolsonaro is at any time considered a flight risk he will be locked up.

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* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”