Russia

It was a week of military parades, trumpets, nuclear sabre-rattling and an inauguration in Russia this week.

It started with another threat from President Vladimir Putin when he announced on Monday the start of military exercises involving non-strategic nuclear weapons. This was in response to America releasing its $61 billion aid package to Ukraine, and the repetition of French President Emmanuel Macron’s threat to consider sending French troops to Ukraine.

Then there was Putin’s inauguration as he started his fifth term in office with a long walk past applauding crowds lining the red-carpeted corridors of the Kremlin. Putin’s first inauguration in 2000 was hailed as Russia’s transition to democracy. This one followed an election in which he “won” 87.5 percent of the vote while all his political opponents were either dead, in exile or in prison.

On Thursday it was the Victory Day Parade to mark the end of what the Russians call “The Great Patriotic War.” May Day was the big parade in Soviet days. May 9, was important, but it was not even a public holiday until 1965. Putin, has revived the celebration and elevated it to a collective remembrance resembling a religion.

One of the highlights of the parade is the march of the “Immortal Regiment” in which relatives troop past the reviewing stand holding aloft pictures of family members who died in the war. The scene is reminiscent of icons being carried in Russian Orthodox Church services. The 60^th and 70^th anniversaries of the war’s end (in 2005 and 2015) were the biggest public holidays in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the inauguration and Victory Day were marked by increased Russian bombardments and missile attacks as Russian troops tried to gain the military upper hand before the latest batch of Western military aid arrived.

Palestine

The two main Palestinian factions – Hamas and Fatah – hate each other almost as much as they do the Netanyahu government.

They have barely spoken since 2007 when Hamas won elections in Gaza and booted Fatah and the Palestinian Authority out of the seaside strip.

That is why it is significant that representatives from the two factions met recently in Moscow and Beijing. The Chinese meeting was especially interesting because Beijing is keen to project itself as Middle East peace broker as opposed to its characterization of the US as Middle East war monger.

The Chinese have already successfully brokered the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between regional rivalries Iran and Saudi Arabia. Shortly after that success, foreign minister Wang Yi wrote to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offering to mediate in the decades-old Arab-Israel conflict. Netanyahu politely refused.

Brokering a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas could be a diplomatic back door for Beijing to constructively inject itself into the Middle East conflict. It is generally agreed that the two-state solution is the logical solution to the conflict.

The Israeli government, however, is adamantly opposed to living alongside a properly constituted and recognised Palestinian state. And as long as there are two warring Palestinian factions, Israel will play them off against each other and prevent the two-state result that the international community (including China) seeks.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Beijing talks between Hamas and Fatah were “in depth and candid” with a clear purpose of promoting “Palestinian reconciliation.” The Chinese added that they yielded “encouraging progress” and that more talks were planned.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump appears to be desperate to be sent to jail. What a political coup that would be.

It would be the ultimate proof of his martyrdom. He would happily languish behind bars so he could claim that he was the victim of a Biden-controlled political witch hunt.

Oh, and how he would suffer. He would grasp the crown of thorns and shout from the jailhouse steps that he was suffering at the hands of the democrat-controlled deep state on behalf of the millions of “oppressed little people.”

There is, of course, a long history of political prisoners being dispatched to prison, only to be declared a martyr to their principles and raised to power upon their release. Nelson Mandela is perhaps the best known example. He spent 27 years at the notorious Robben Island prison before leading his country out of apartheid.

In fact, a spell in prison, is considered a passage of rite in many countries. The fact that the political figure is prepared to endure the rigours of prison life is seen by many as proof of their commitment to the political values they espouse.

The list of such figures is a long one. Fidel Castro, Martin McGuinness, Indira Gandhi, Jomo Kenyatta, Dilma Vana and Kim Dae-jung, are just a few of the political leaders who have risen to the top after a spell behind bars.

Judge Juan Merchan – the trial judge in the Stormy Daniels case – is all too aware of Trump’s pursuit of martyrdom. It probably explains why he has not yet thrown him into prison and has restricted himself to fining the former president. The total fines to date – $9,000 – is probably less than the daily lunch bill for Trump’s legal team.

And there is unfortunately, a limit on the financial penalties that he can impose. On top of that, having threatened jail time, the judge would look foolish if Trump continued to flout the court’s strictures. Judge Merchan is trying to keep politics out of his courtroom by keeping Trump out of prison. Trump is doing his best to bring politics into the courtroom by doing his utmost to goad the judge into sending him to prison.

United States

Remember Nikki Haley? Quite a few others have not forgotten her.

The former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations is still winning votes even though her name is not on the ballot and she has withdrawn from the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

It is not generally reported, but the Republican primaries are still in progress. Donald Trump has won enough of them to secure the Republican nomination at the party’s July convention in Milwaukee. But the primaries do not end until June.

Thus it is worth noting that Trump is not clean sweeping the remaining ballots. On Thursday Ambassador Haley secured 21.8 percent of the Republican votes as a write-on in Indiana. This is not a fluke. Since she dropped out of the race, Haley has won 13.2 percent of the vote in Georgia, 17.8 percent in Arizona, 14.4 percent in Ohio, 12.8 percent in Wisconsin and 16.6 percent in Pennsylvania. Not bad for someone who isn’t even running for office.

And not good for Trump because it indicates that there are still a large number of Republicans who oppose his return to the White House. In fact, there are indications of a growing rebellion against the far-right Republican tail that has been recently wagging the party dog.

Also on Thursday there was a vote in the House of Representatives on whether Mike Johnson would be allowed to remain in the Speaker’s chair. Marjorie Taylor Greene carried out her threat to challenge the Speaker for allowing the vote on aid for Ukraine. She managed to garner a mere 43 votes for the proposed ousting of Johnson. A total of 163 Democrats joined forces with 196 Republicans in a bipartisan slap in the face for Ms. Greene and MAGA.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".