The recent election of Donald Trump as President of the United States marks a pivotal shift in the transatlantic alliance, forcing Europe to reassess its position on defence, economic policy, and international relations. For Great Britain, the European Union, and NATO allies, Trump’s presidency presents both immediate and long-term challenges. His ambivalence toward NATO’s traditional role, compounded by isolationist and protectionist policies, signals a tectonic change in the foundation of post-World War II alliances. With Trump back in office, Europe must adopt a more strategic, coordinated, and self-reliant approach to ensure regional stability and security.

Trump’s stance on NATO introduces real uncertainty into Europe’s defence calculus. Historically, NATO has underpinned European security, offering a powerful deterrent against aggressors like Russia. However, Trump’s prior remarks about “free-riding” by European nations and his willingness to reconsider U.S. commitments cast doubt on the assumption that the U.S. will always be the principal guarantor of European security. This is particularly concerning as Russia’s actions in Ukraine demonstrate the enduring risk of territorial aggression on the continent. Europe, therefore, faces a strategic imperative to assume a larger share of its defence burden, fortify its military capabilities, and reinforce collective defence mechanisms.

The European Union and NATO must now confront their limitations in readiness, force projection, and rapid response capability. While NATO’s Article 5 provides a mutual defence framework, its effectiveness is compromised if member states lack interoperability and standardized response capabilities. Thus, Europe’s emphasis must shift toward enhancing interoperability among its forces, modernizing its military infrastructure, and bolstering cybersecurity defences. Major urban centres like Milan, Geneva, Krakow, Berlin, and London must be prepared to withstand a range of threats, from cyber incursions to hybrid warfare and missile strikes. Europe’s major powers, particularly Germany and France, need to accelerate their defence spending and expand joint military exercises to build a resilient and autonomous defence posture.

Complicating this situation is the rising tension between the U.S. and China, specifically concerning Taiwan. Taiwan, with its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, plays a critical role in the global economy. A military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait would send shockwaves through global supply chains, affecting everything from electronics to automotive production. Trump’s antagonistic stance toward China, while reinforcing the U.S. commitment to Taiwan, risks escalating tensions that could spill over into open conflict. This dynamic places Europe in a precarious position, as it may be forced to take sides in a potential U.S.-China confrontation. Europe must develop a robust policy on the Indo-Pacific region that balances its economic interests with strategic stability. Diplomatic engagement with China, combined with partnerships with regional allies like Japan, Australia, and India, will be essential in establishing a coherent European position on Taiwan.

Moreover, Trump’s trade policies could have significant repercussions for Britain and the broader European economy. His use of tariffs as leverage poses a direct threat to sectors integral to Britain’s economy, such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. The British government and the EU must, therefore, prepare for possible disruptions by diversifying their trade portfolios and strengthening internal markets. Reassessing the trade and regulatory frameworks with the EU may also mitigate the impact of U.S. protectionism. By fostering greater intra-European trade and reducing dependence on the U.S. market, Europe can cushion itself against economic fluctuations driven by U.S. policies.

Beyond economic and defence considerations, Trump’s return to the presidency influences the broader ideological landscape. In the U.S., the far-right media ecosystem has bolstered polarization, eroding consensus on democratic values. Figures like Elon Musk, who has been dubbed the “Minister for Efficiency,” exemplify a shift in how information is disseminated and controlled. Social media platforms increasingly act as political battlegrounds, with algorithms that amplify divisive content. Europe must be prepared for the importation of these polarized narratives, which could fuel nationalism, xenophobia, and political instability within EU member states. Developing frameworks for digital sovereignty and content regulation is essential to preserving Europe’s democratic fabric.

As Europe navigates these complex dynamics, the continent faces an urgent need to redefine its relationship with the U.S. The EU and NATO must position themselves as equal partners, capable of independent strategic decision-making and rapid mobilization. A cohesive European market, alongside a unified defence apparatus, will provide the stability and resilience needed in this era of great-power competition. Europe cannot rely solely on American security guarantees or assume that U.S. priorities will align with its own in perpetuity. A self-reliant Europe, one that invests in both hard and soft power, is not just a strategic goal but an existential requirement in today’s geopolitical environment.

In conclusion, Trump’s presidency underscores the strategic imperative for a unified, prepared, and capable Europe. By strengthening its own military, economic, and diplomatic infrastructure, Europe can navigate the challenges ahead and preserve its values, stability, and autonomy. This is not just about defence—it’s about redefining Europe’s role on the global stage and ensuring that its future lies firmly in its own hands.

* Mo Waqas is Chair of the Lib Dem’s Stockton branch and was the PPC for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East.