The last month of the year: a time for taking stock, and anticpating the challenges of the 12 months to come. So what could be more fitting than for LDV – no slavish followers of the polls, we – to reflect on 2009’s polls? Let’s start, though, with the latest polling data. Here, in chronological order, are the results of the nine polls published in December:
Tories 40, Labour 29, Lib Dems 19 (6 Dec, ICM)
Tories 40, Labour 27, Lib Dems 18 (6 Dec, YouGov)
Tories 38, Labour 30, Lib Dems 20 (8 Dec, Populus)
Tories 40, Labour 23, Lib Dems 19 (10 Dec, Angus RS)
Tories 41, Labour 24, Lib Dems 21 (13 Dec, ComRes)
Tories 40, Labour 31, Lib Dems 16 (13 Dec, YouGov)
Tories 40, Labour 31, Lib Dems 18 (15 Dec, ICM)
Tories 43, Labour 26, Lib Dems 20 (20 Dec, Mori)
Tories 40, Labour 24, Lib Dems 20 (18 Dec, Angus RS)
Tories 40, Labour 28, Lib Dems 18 (20 Dec, YouGov)
Tories 38, Labour 29, Lib Dems 19 (22 Dec, ComRes)
Which gives us an average rating for the parties in December as follows (compared with November’s averages):
Tories 40% (+1%), Labour 28% (+1%), Lib Dems 19% (n/c)
Let’s have a look at the figures from each of the main parties’ perspectives …
Tories: the Tories will breath a small sigh of relief. In November, most polls showed them below 40%; in December, the trend is reversed, with nine of the 11 polls showing the party above that psychologically significant threshold. Their poll average has, though, only edged up, and there are still more than a few jitters on display that David Cameron and his party have been, as yet, unable to ‘seal the deal’ despite the deep unpopularity of the Labour Government. Speaking of which …
Labour: Labour has also moved up, very slightly, and now stands at 28% in the polls. We’ve sort of got used to the party’s ratings being so abysmal during 2009, but it cannot be over-stated how poorly Labour is doing: a year ago, the party’s ratings stood at 35%, two years ago at 33%. As I commented in last month’s round-up: ‘Unless the party can begin polling reguarly above 30%, it’s in deep trouble, especially as the party very rarely out-performs its poll ratings in actual elections.’
Lib Dems: the party will be quietly pleased that it has sustained poll ratings approaching our psychologically significant 20% mark. To put December’s 19% in some context, it is the highest Lib Dem December rating since Charles Kennedy’s final month as leader, in 2005 (when we were at 19%). Under Ming, in 2006, we were at 16%; under Vince/Nick, in 2007, we were at 17%; and last year, December 2008, we were stuck at 15%.
To put it in perspective, 19% is one of the party’s strongest December ratings. In December 1996, for example – prior to the ’97 election – the Lib Dems were at just 14%. In December 2000 – prior to the ’01 election – we were at 15%. Even during the 2001-05 Parliament – the Lib Dems’ most consistently high polling period since the days of the Alliance – our December ratings did not exceed 21% (which is what we were at in both 2003 and 2004). Other than that, you have to go back to 1993 to find a previous December when the party has performed so well in the polls.
The party leaders: YouGov asked its ‘Do you think (name) is doing well or badly as (position)?’ twice of all three party leaders in December. PoliticalBetting.com’s pollster, Angus RS, asked its ‘Do you approve or disapprove of (name)’s performance as (position)?’ question once; as did Mori with its (‘Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (name) is doing his job as (position)?’ The subtle variations in wording produce slightly different findings – below are the results for the party leaders.
Nick Clegg: YouGov (6 Dec) – 44-29 (+15%); Angus RS (10 Dec) – 38-29 (+9%); YouGov (13 Dec) – 45-30 (+15%); Mori (20 Dec) – 40-27 (+13%).
Gordon Brown: YouGov (6 Dec) – 28-66 (-38%); Angus RS (10 Dec) – 28-63 (-35%); YouGov (13 Dec) – 26-68 (-42%); Mori (20 Dec) – 28-63 (-35%).
David Cameron: YouGov (6 Dec) – 52-37 (+15%); Angus RS (10 Dec) – 43-42 (+1%); YouGov (13 Dec) – 52-38 (+14%); Mori (20 Dec) – 44-38 (+6%).
December 2009 was, I think, the first month when Nick Clegg beat David Cameron’s popularity ratings as leader when measured by all the pollsters: YouGov, Mori and Angus RS. True, the margin is slight. And it’s even truer that the reason Nick now has a lead is not so much that his ratings have soared (though they’ve certainly improved significantly during the course of the year), but that Mr Cameron’s have shrunk. The collapse of the Tory leader’s popularity is one of the less-reported features of the past month’s polls: his ratings have halved. Of course, that Mr Cameron still records net positive popularity is something that Gordon Brown can still only dream of: his ratings remain nailed to the floor, with no sign of improvement.
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6 Comments
Eh? I cant see more than two polls that show the Tories above the significant 40 per cent. There are seven that agree thats exactly where they are at – on 40 per cent. Two disagree and suggest its less…
One poll is easy to dismiss, but, several that show a trend is something to take note of.
Conclusions: a) Its been a very good year for Nick. b) The popularity of Cameron is halved “is one of the less reported factoids” …all down to Simon Heffer’s column in the Telegraph yesterday, when he concluded that “Nick Clegg must be quietly happy as he surveys the political scene. Quite….it’s cerrtainly not a bad note to end the year on.
I don’t see how a party polling 16-19% can be pleased with anything. The Lib Dems come out with the same guff every election – “we’re holding our own, etc, etc”.
It is simply fatuous to comapre Clegg’s personal ratings with Cameron’s – most people don’t even know who Clegg is, so far, far fewer people have an opinion about him, either way. I saw a poll in a marginal seat where 70% said Clegg was a Tory MP.
We’ll see at the election how popular Clegg is. It would be an achievement if he was even recognised.
And the party that is polling 38 per cent to 41 per cent is also pleased to be “holding its own” ? …. Despite a war-chest with £50 million, several daily papers backing it every time the presses roll, with Mrs Rothschild giving George Osbourne £250,000 to staff his office, on top of what he has already got, despite the Daily Telegraph pointing out he doesnt understand economics, unlike Vince Cable…..while another bloke pours in endless millions into targetting marginal seats from mystery accounts in Belize, chicken feed though compared with what Zac Goldsmith has spent so far, £260,000 before an election in one constituency must be a record spend by any candidate, ever… Against all those odds, when in the past (’97) there has been a significant squeeze on the Liberal Democrat vote, the past year has indeed ended up higher than it started is indeed real progress.
As for Nick, he leads a party that has caused the ONLY single parliamentary defeat on the Labour Government…something your Conservatives couldnt pull off, (the Gurkha issue), we have watched the Tories vote with Labour for the printing of more money regardless, without an alternative policy to offer, but now critcise Labour for the running of the economy…and backed Labour all the way with the war in Iraq, and even support Labour on retaining school Sats tests, so, you might not like it, but its not been a bad year all round for Liberals, with a good year in local council election by-elections on top.
As the Deputy Editor of your favourite paper, the Daily Telegraph, said the other day, if all Labour voters are offered a version of Labour policy by the Conservatives, why wouldnt they just carry on voting for the real Labour party they already know? ….This might go some way to explain why you are flat-lining in the polls.
Dont forget, to get a clear majority of House of Commons seats, the Conservatives have GOT to be doing a lot better than they are right now, as what they have to pull off is a swing bigger than Mrs Thatcher achieved in 1979…so big, no Conservative leader has pulled off such a swing in the last 50 years. Perhaps that’s why you sound more than little hacked off – yep, it’s certainly pretty clear why Liberal Democrat performance of late is irritating you.
Bert: you cite one unsourced and (as far as I know) unpublished poll without providing any details. Yet, despite what you say, published polls from a range of different pollsters consistently show between two-thirds and three-quarters of people having a view on Nick Clegg’s performance and those figures are not “far, far” fewer than they are for Cameron. Now, what was that you were saying about guff … 🙂
Zac Goldsmith’s bid to buy the election in Richmond reminds me of his late father’s attempt to launch and sustain a national news magazine (the unlamented NOW!). Both Goldsmiths had to part with substantial chunks of their fortunes in their failed attempts to become pivotal members of the ruling elite. Sir Jams (as he was known) was honest enough to admit that his motive in publishing NOW! was to “emerge as a national leader” (a horror that never befell this country, thank goodness). Does Baby Goldsmith harbour similar pretensions? To paraphrase David Mellor: “Up your hacienda, Zac!”
Put Clegg up against the oleaginous and mendacious Cameron, and the fumbling, bumptious Brown, and just watch what happens to the polls.
bert – you say that the Lib Dems come out of every election claiming that they are ‘holding their own’. Far from it, every election since 1997 we have been broadcasting our net gains. We currently hold more than three times as many seats as we won in the 1992 general election (when ‘holding our own’ was a genuine acheivement).