I have a proposal on how to permanently solve the UK’s housing crisis, forever.
This proposition rests on two arguments:
- Unlike all of history, our population is not going to continue to grow. The ONS forecasts that the population of the UK will peak in the early 2040’s at 71m.
- It follows that the number of homes needed will similarly peak.
For maximum economic benefits and happiness, we want these homes to be built where people want to live and work. This is predominantly in the south east, where planning permission is constrained by the Green belt.
My proposal is that we build on the Green belt.
The old fear: it’s a slippery slope – grant planning permission for an inch and they will concrete over miles, until all the beauty is gone.
However, if we accept that peak housing is within our sight, we can slough off this fear, like a hermit crab, and confidently scuttle into our final and forever shell.
But how much of the Green belt would need to be built on? Worst case: assuming 100% of the homes are wanted in the southeast, ignoring the 100k’s of new homes already in the pipeline, assuming people continue in wanting to live in ever smaller households (2.3 by 2040) and that we decide we want roomier houses and gardens than the legislation currently allows (15 per hectare vs 30). We would need 2,200,000 homes. Rounding up the worse case, that would require building on 10% of the Green belt. Worst case.
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