By-Election results – TWO Lib Dem GAINS, a Lib Dem HOLD and a massive leap forward

I am covering the by-election results for ALDC tonight. So far we have done pretty well. We have won 3 of the 4 wards where we are standing.

A very strong gain from the Conservatives in Gloucester:

And another in West Sussex

And a solid hold in Huntingdon

And our 152 votes in Blackfriars and Trinity ward represent a 13% increase on last time while the Greens fell more than 6%.

This is not a bad haul. Well done to all the campaign teams on some great results.

* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

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12 Comments

  • Excellent results. Congratulations to those involved in the campaigns.

  • John Marriott 5th Nov '21 - 7:39am

    I know that parliamentary elections are different; but by elections can spring surprises. I know it’s a tall order, with only 10% of the votes last time, but I reckon whoever stands for the Lib Dems in North Shropshire must fancy their chances. Mind you don’t Lib Dem candidates always fancy their chances? Could be an interesting campaign, especially if sleaze plays a part.

  • We await the analysis from people on the ground – clearly very competent campaigners – but it would be interesting to know if Tory activists refused to do their stuff on the day in response to the PM’s Owen goal.

  • Maybe things are starting to happen, I rate the Salfoprd result as the most significant.
    If we are a party on the move then we must fight Southend West and North Shropshire.

  • Nonconformistradical 5th Nov '21 - 8:14am

    Not complaining about these results. However….

    According to Britain Elects there were 2 other local by-elections where we didn’t have candidates – North Meols (West Lancashire) and Oakham North West (Rutland).

    Why no LD candidates in these contests? Especially in Oakham North West as I see (from the Council website) that there are 2 LD councillors in the adjoining Oakham South ward?

  • Barry Lofty 5th Nov '21 - 9:58am

    The opposition party’s must strike while the irons hot and not let the Tories and their allies in the media try to divert the public’s attention with a good news story that will give Boris Johnson another escape route, which he has managed to achieve on many occasions. The above results are very encouraging though.

  • Paul Holmes 5th Nov '21 - 12:25pm

    I note that, even at the height of COP26 and related press coverage, the Greens were irrelevant in yesterdays by elections. Where are all the doomsayers who normally jump in here to comment when there is a flicker of Green success?

    Not of course that the Greens are not a danger but the reality is that good candidates fighting hard campaigns is what wins elections. I know nothing of our winning areas yesterday but I would hazard a wild guess that they ran proper campaigns rather than ‘flying the token flag’.

    Of course anyone reading anything at all into a random set of byelections on any given Thursday is wasting their time. What tells us anything meaningful is the trend over 6 months to a year.

  • Jason Connor 5th Nov '21 - 12:37pm

    Yes they’re really good results though I would love to see some wins from labour in neglected inner city London and other areas. I thought it was a agreed a candidate would not stand in Southend West in view of the special circumstances it would be disrespectful to do so. However definitely in North Shropshire as Labour should not assume they have a monopoly on the opposition there.

  • Kevin Hawkins 5th Nov '21 - 1:27pm

    For those interested in a longer term view the data for the last fifty by-elections to the end of October is as follows. (Equivalent data for the fifty by-elections up to the end of September is given in brackets).
    Conservatives 32.1% (33.4%)
    Labour 29.7% (28.9%)
    Liberal Democrats 19.2% (19.0%)
    Greens 8.6% (8.7%)
    Others 10.4% (10.8%)
    Gains and losses are:
    Conservatives: Net loss of 2 5 gains, 11 held, 7 lost
    Labour: Net gain of 3 4 gains, 10 held, 1 lost
    Liberal Democrats: Net loss of 1 1 gain, 10 held, 2 lost
    Greens: Net gain of 3 3 gains, 0 held, 0 lost
    Independents: Net loss of 2 3 gains, 2 held, 5 lost
    Residents: No change 0 gains, 2 held, 0 lost
    UKIP: Net loss of 1 0 gains, 0 held, 1 lost

    Conservatives won 16 seats, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 11, Independents 5, Greens 3, Residents 2 (Total equals 51 as there was a double-by-election in one ward)

    As these are month end figures they don’t include any of this week’s by-elections which should give a boost to November’s figures. Unless things go disastrously wrong during the rest of November our share of the vote should rise significantly above 20%.

  • Steve Comer 6th Nov '21 - 4:03pm

    Jason said “I thought it was a agreed a candidate would not stand in Southend West in view of the special circumstances…” Well I think it was agreed by the local party and the leadership, but it was a bad and wrong decision.
    We stood a candidate in Epping in the 1980s and in Eastbourne in 1990 when the incumbents were murdered by the IRA. (And remember we WON Eastbourne).
    Whilst we rightly deplore assassination of MPs, giving the party they belonged to a free run in the by-election is not a “mark of respect” it is a cowardly cop out.

    We know that Jayda Fransen will stand in Southend, and the danger is with no non-Tory candidates from Lib Dem, Labour and Green party, the racists and fascists will gain votes and credibility they could not otherwise obtain. What sort of “mark of respect” for democracy is that?

  • Alex Macfie 6th Nov '21 - 6:37pm

    Jason Connor: Voters in by-elections don’t refer back to the event that caused the by-election, however tragic. Southend West should be a normal, contested by-election, and if it were to be, then the voters would treat it as such. As it is, the turnout is likely to be rock-bottom as only dyed-in-the-wool Tories will even bother to vote, and there is a danger it will give a platform to right-wing extremists (far-right activist Jayda Fransen is reportedly standing).

  • Alex Macfie 6th Nov '21 - 9:38pm

    Point of information: it was Enfield Southgate, not Epping, caused by the murder of Sir Anthony Berry in the IRA Brighton bombing. The resulting by-election was a fully contested affair, won by the Tory candidate (a certain Michael Portillo) with a reduced majority. The 1988 Epping Forest by-election was caused by the death from natural causes of Tory MP Sir John Bigges-Davison, and resulted in the election of Parliamentary retread Steven Norris.

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