Category Archives: Parliamentary by-elections

Ealing Southall result: 6% swing from Labour to Lib Dem

Results just in:

Labour Party: 15,188 (41%) -8% compared to 2005
Nigel Bakhai, Liberal Democrats: 10,118 (28%) +4%
David Cameron’s Conservatives: 8,230 (23%)

Huge congratulations to Nigel Bakhai, the Ealing Southall Lib Dems, and all those who helped the campaign, on achieving a 6% swing from Labour, and keeping David Cameron’s Tories firmly back in third place.

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Grant Shapps in irony-is-dead shocker

Grant Shapps MP, the Tory by-election campaign manager in Ealing Southall, gained some level of infamy last week when he was caught red-handed pretending to be a Lib Dem member posting comments to YouTube.

Mr Shapps’ weak excuse – that his account password was set to ‘1234’, and hacked by opposition parties – was widely derided.

So it comes as some surprise to see this story in today’s Times:

The Conservatives claimed to have identified a woman who confronted Mr Cameron during a walkabout in the constituency as a Labour supporter involved in the party’s campaign. …

Referring to Mr Cameron’s

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Police investigation into Ealing Southall postal votes ‘leak’

As if the Ealing Southall by-election needed another twist… news has broken tonight that police will be mounting an investigation following the leaking of alleged postal vote scores via the Telegraph’s Little and Large blog, authored by Daily Telegraph journalists Brendan Carlin and Jonathan Isaby.

As any fule kno, it’s a criminal offence to disclose the results of postal vote counts before polls close. The complaint to the police has come from Labour’s election agent, Ken Clarke (no, not him, a different one).

It is of course a complete mystery which party might have chosen to leak figures …

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Conservative poster campaign in Ealing

Oh dear. Oh deary me. I think you can guess what’s coming… so without further ado, here’s the evidence.

Photograph A: illegally flyposted Conservative election posters.

Conservative flyposting in Ealing Southall

Photograph B: illegally flyposted Conservative election posters removed by Ealing Council (insert outrage at hard-pressed local Council Tax payers having to fund the tidying up etc etc).

Conservative flyposting in Ealing Southall - removal

Photograph C and D: the people who erected the Conservative posters. (Doubtless they weren’t acting on behalf of Grant Shapps, but instead the number keypad code on the Conservative poster …

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Lib Dems leading the way on Facebook

In a quiet moment in Ealing (no sniggering at the back), I thought it would be interesting to see how much the various parties are using social networking site to support their efforts in the two parliamentary by-elections – and whether my sneaking suspicion that the Liberal Democrats are making the best use of it are true. It’s possible that the other parties have secret groups we don’t know about, but based on what we cansee, here are the stats* – represented for your viewing pleasure in traditional bar chart form, with exciting added 3-D perspective:

Ealing Facebook graph ...
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Chris Rennard: a re-count in Ealing Southall, challengers to Labour in Sedgefield

Lib Dem chief executive and by-election supremo, Lord Chris Rennard, has posted his thoughts on Lib Dem Voice on the current state of play for Thursday’s by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield:

By-elections can be fast moving in the last two days. I will not issue “final forecasts” here but have often been accurate to within a handful of votes in the past !

What I will say is that over the weekend I think that Ealing Southall was something like Labour 37, Lib Dem 31, Con 22. From this position Lib Dems can win but it should be close. I

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Conservative candidate switches parties

No, it’s not Ealing this time. But rather the 2005 Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Tottenham is backing UKIP in the Sedgefield by-election.

The story particularly caught my eye because I slightly know the person – William Macdougall – from when he was a Conservative councillor in Haringey (yes, they used to have some!) up until 2002. We mainly had some dealings over the redrawing of ward boundaries, as the Lib Dems, Tories and Greens got together to put in a joint proposal. As, in addition to having held senior posts locally and stood for election at both local and Westminster level, he has …

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Razzall and Littlewood on Ming’s future

The Guardian reports on today’s BBC World at One interviews with former Lib Dem campaign manager, Lord Tim Razzall, and former head of communications, Mark Littlewood, here. Both suggest Ming Campbell’s future would come under the spotlight if the party were to under-perform in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections this Thursday.

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Prediction competition: place your free bets here

What do you think will happen this Thursday, 19th July, in the crunch by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield?

Will Labour cling on in one, both or neither seats? And which of the two main opposition parties, the Lib Dems or the Tories, will fare best? The political blogosphere has been humming these past couple of weeks with pundits on all sides arguing the toss.

But now’s the moment to put your credibility on the line, online, and to say what you think will actually happen this Thursday. There are no prizes on offer – merely the respect and admiration of friend …

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Sky exclusive: Tony Lit, Tony Blair and the £50,000 cheque

Sky is just about to break a story about Tony Lit being photographed giving a £50,000 £4,800 cheque to Tony Blair at a Labour fundraiser. Let’s hope this story is more accurate than the PA’s poll reporting attempts earlier this evening…

UPDATE: The Telegraph has more about Tony Lit and the donation.

UPDATE 2: The party’s official reaction is up on the Ealing Southall by-election site.

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A Betting Tip?

The recent Politicalbetting.com thread suggests good results for us in both by-elections. The regular punters spinning on that site say that Ealing Southall will be a close split between all three main parties. In Sedgefield, there’s speculation that some Labour voters may stay at home, giving Greg Stone a chance to win.

Am I the only one who thinks Labour are less certain to hold Sedgefield than the 1.03 odds currently on Betfair? For a liability of £5.16 I stand to take £172 if voters punish the Brown government and Labour’s thuggish attempts to distrupt democracy. You can …

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Anti-Crime candidate has run-in with the police

One thing you can say about these by-elections, they’re not dull.

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Lib Dems closing on Labour in Sedgefield – Mirror

“The Tories, a poor second in 2005, are nowhere. But the Liberal Democrats are closing the gap rapidly on Labour … Labour’s fixers are worried”

Paul Routledge in The Mirror. I think you can guess from the rest of the piece that he doesn’t really like us 🙂

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Conservative MP says: we’re not going to win in Ealing

A Conservative Shadow Cabinet member has today admitted that the Conservatives ‘do not think they will win’ the Ealing Southall by-election. As the party’s press release puts it:

A Conservative Shadow Cabinet member has today admitted that the Conservatives ‘do not think they will win’ the Ealing Southall by-election.

Local Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai who finished second at the last General Election is leading a strong campaign for the local area.

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Lib Dem councillor denies tactical vote slur

The Lib Dem Voice posting on Monday, ‘Five Labour councillors switch to the Tories in Ealing’, provoked a large response – 54 comments at the last count.

Four of these comments (Nos 16, 20, 23 and 24) purported to be from Cllr Abid Latif Chohan, a Lib Dem city councillor in Manchester, claiming he would be supporting the Tory candidate in the Ealing by-election: “I have many friends in Southall, mainly muslim, who plan to vote for Mr Lit. I really hate Labour. Could we withdraw at this stage to give Lit a free run? We could devide

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EXCLUSIVE: Grant Shapps says “realistically we’re not going to win” in Ealing

Now here’s an interesting tale. … can anyone provide a decent explanation?

Over on one of the (official) YouTube films from the Liberal Democrats there is this comment from someone:

Okay, realistically we’re not going to win though. Especially since the Tories have just received 5 defecting Councillors from Labour. Don’t quite know how they’ve done it, but the Tories have stolen a march on us this time.

With phrases such as “us” this is clearly written as if from a Liberal Democrat member or supporter.

But according to YouTube the comment was posted by a “GrantShapps” (look just above the comment for …

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Who is “useless, opportunist, communalist and weak” in Ealing Southall?

Pardes newspaper mastheadPardes Weekly is turning out to be the most lively local newspaper during the Ealing Southall by-election. You might be hard-pressed though to work out their view of the Labour campaign from the latest edition:

Pardes Weekly on Varinder Sharma and Labour Ealing Southall campaign

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Conservative splits in Ealing Southall

Now that the lists of candidates are in and finalised in the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-elections, the extent of the Conservative splits in Ealing is clear. For one of the independent candidates is Gulbash Singh, a former Conservative member and – as recently as May 2006 – Conservative candidate in Ealing. In fact, he polled the highest number of votes of any Conservative council candidate in the Southall end of the constituency in 2006.

With all these troubles, it’s no wonder one of their activists has called for the Tories to run a campaign of lies.

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The Battle of Trimdon Green (or “Labour yobs attack lawful Lib Dem campaigners”)

Thanks to Lib Dem Jonathan Wallace, we have video evidence of Labour party councillors and activists attempting to distrupt the launch of the Lib Dem campaign in Sedgefield by Andrew Stunnell MP. While Lib Dem challenger Greg Stone explained his policies to attending media, the Labour campaign team heckled and forcibly distrupted the event as you can see on YouTube.

The group mocking Greg for being from Newcastle included a Labour councillor from… erm, Newcastle.

Lib Dem Voice has already noted the unorthodox poster techniques apparently used in this campaign, and also the local newspaper’s verdict that Labour …

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Stinging attack on Labour’s Sedgefield campaign by local newspaper

Labour’s taken to trying bully boy tactics to keep other parties from campaigning in Sedgefield, causing the Northern Echo to write:

There were farcical and unpleasant scenes yesterday as Liberal Democrat candidate Greg Stone was prevented from placing a placard on the green at Trimdon by Labour activists … at a time when politics badly needs to refresh its public image, the last thing people want to see is the kind of petty, juvenile behaviour that would earn unruly schoolchildren a stern ticking off.

ASBO anyone?

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David Cameron and the Labour hoodie

And in news from the other parties in Sedgefield … there’s this clip on YouTube of a confrontation between Labour activists, David Cameron and a hoodie.

Handy hint for Labour person on the right – holding the poster the right way up helps.

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Poster campaign dirty tricks allegations – evidence at last

So this is how Labour gets posters up.

Meanwhile, Greg Stone has launched his Sedgefield by-election campaign, where yet another photo of Blair and Bush is getting regular use. Look out for the man in the background.

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Ealing Labour: we don’t want you to know who our candidate is

After all the infighting in the Labour Party over their Ealing Southall candidate selection, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Ealing Labour Party’s official website – www.ealinglabour.com – isn’t saying anything about their candidate:

Ealing Labour party website

As the screenshot above shows, there’s no story about his selection, whilst doing a search on his name rather nicely simply gives the message “Insert content here”:

Ealing Labour party website

Who knows, perhaps the website is run by …

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Ealing Southall: local paper accuses Labour candidate of dirty tricks

This from the latest edition of Pardes Weekly, one of the local papers in Ealing, talking about the Labour candidate Virendra Sharma’s activities just before he was selected:

Ealing Southall: Virendra Sharma accused of dirty tricks

With both Labour and Conservative infighting over their candidate selections, the prospects for Nigel Bakhai are looking better and better.

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Ealing Southall: Labour select Virendra Sharma

After all Labour’s Ealing Southall selection problems, it’s Virendra Sharma.

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Ealing Southall: yet more Labour selection woes

From (presumably) a Labour party member:

I was at the meeting last night and it was a disgrace to local democracy. As you say, as soon as the two candidate shortlist was announced, the regional director was subjected to continuous heckling, to the point that ‘heavies’ were brought in to threaten protestors with ejection from the room.

Happy days if you’re a Labour member clearly.

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Sedgefield Liberal Democrats select Greg Stone

Greg StoneSedgefield Liberal Democrats have selected Greg Stone to be their candidate for the parliamentary by-election to succeed Tony Blair. The Sedgefield Liberal Democrats website reports:

Greg is a senior Liberal Democrat Councillor and has lived in the North East since graduating from Newcastle University. Greg is 32 and currently works as an expert in regeneration including eco-friendly projects in the Sedgefield constituency. He previously worked at the University of Teesside.

Commenting, Chief Executive Chris Rennard said:

“I am delighted that Greg Stone has been selected; I am sure that he would be an outstanding MP,

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Ealing Southall: now Labour have trouble with their candidate

Hot on the heals of the Conservative Party’s trouble over the imposition of Tony Lit as their candidate in Ealing Southall, we have fun and games in the Labour Party too.

Ealing Southall was originally going to have an All Women Shortlist for Labour, something strongly backed by Piara Khabra before his death who had wanted to be followed by a female Labour MP when he retired.

But that was scrapped when he died and the by-election was called. Amongst those campaigning for the Labour selection was Sonika Nirwal, who was clearly taking the selection seriously given how glossy her selection leaflet …

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Ealing Southall: the betting verdict so far

Ealing Southall: Bet Fair odds.jpgThe betting books are open and the verdict of the punters so far? The Liberal Democrats are the best bet to take the seat from Labour.

These odds are aided no doubt by today’s news of the switch of a key Conservative activist to the Liberal Democrats, unhappy with David Cameron’s leadership and the way their candidate, Tony Lit – described as “controversial and high risk” by an Ealing Tory councillor – was foisted on them.

Doubtless …

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Tories hit by defection in by-election seat of Ealing Southall (copy of a party Press Release)

A senior Conservative in the by-election seat of Ealing Southall has defected to the Liberal Democrats, following the imposition of a candidate on the local party by Tory spin doctors.

Mr Brij Mohan Gupta, Deputy Chair (Political) of Ealing Southall Conservatives and Vice-Chair of Southall Green and Southall Broadway Conservative ward parties, has joined the Liberal Democrats and backed the Liberal Democrat candidate Nigel Bakhai.

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