On 27th February 2023 Rishi Sunak announced a decisive breakthrough in negotiations with the EU on trade with Northern Ireland, but is this a successful deal for NI, or does this deal signal the final knife through the heart of the United Kingdom?
Thanks to Sunak’s deal we now have a United Kingdom of two halves. In Great Britain our businesses continue to suffer the indignities of Brexit, with their access to the European markets at best restricted and at worse blocked, whilst in Northern Ireland businesses now have far fewer restrictions on their access to that market.
Sunak, in his own words, made clear that “If we get this right, if we get this framework implemented, if we get the executive back up and running here, Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position – unique position in the entire world, European continent – in having privileged access, not just to the UK home market, which is enormous, the fifth biggest in the world, but also the European Union single market. Nobody else has that. No one. Only you guys. Only here. And that is the prize.”
What Sunak has done is created a clear and irrevocable split between Great Britain and Northern Ireland which, whilst initially will be lauded, will rapidly turn to discontent in Great Britain, starting in Scotland and Wales, but in the longer term also in the Regions of England.
Sunak even acknowledged the divide when he stated that “I can tell you, when I go around the world and talk to businesses, they know. They’re like, ‘That’s interesting, if you guys get this sorted, then we want to invest in Northern Ireland.’”
“Because nowhere else does that exist. That’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone.”
Northern Ireland now has a clear investment advantage over Great Britain, one that cannot be levelled up without the UK entering the European economic zone. This means that in competitions for inward funding between Great Britain and Northern Ireland the latter will now always win.
Let us be clear, before Brexit the whole of the UK was benefitting from the deal that now only applies to Northern Ireland. Before Brexit the whole of the kingdom was united in one trading zone, with one trading arrangement. Now there is an absolute difference between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
The case for Scottish, and Welsh, independence is far stronger today than it was yesterday, and levelling up will never now be possible without the UK entering the European Economic Zone.
* Ian Donaldson is a member of ECE and a representative of the Party in England to FCEC.
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29 Comments
@ Ian Donaldson, “Northern Ireland now has a clear investment advantage over Great Britain, one that cannot be levelled up without the UK entering the European economic zone”.
Exactly, and it’s perfectly legitimate, indeed essential, to ask why the Liberal Democrats are not campaigning for this instead of the current silence.
I must endorse David Raw’s comment.
It is time for the invisible man to materialise: a period of visibility would be welcome!
We have already ‘missed the boat’ on this, there is a lot of catching up work to be done by our leaders and MPs.
I do not want to use the word ‘irrevocable’, however Ian Donaldson’s final paragraph cannot be easily denied: “The case for Scottish, and Welsh, independence is far stronger today than it was yesterday, and levelling up will never now be possible without the UK entering the European Economic Zone.”
It’s a pity that in his comments on the Windsor Framework, Ed Davey had only this to say: “Like others, the Liberal Democrats will now closely study this deal, but I welcome the spirit of partnership and compromise between the UK Government and the European Union in the formation of the Windsor agreement. What consultation will the Prime Minister now undertake with all of Northern Ireland’s political parties, including the Alliance party, on the Stormont brake? Can he reassure us that the operation of the Stormont brake will not undermine the economic stability and certainty or the political stability so desperately needed in Northern Ireland?”
Yes, if Scotland were to gain independence and quickly join the EU, it should be able to benefit from the same land border arrangement with the UK as the EU has now agreed with the UK within Ireland. That would appear to kill the anti-independence argument that independence would lead to a hard border between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
Week after week we rightly flag the inadequate leadership this party suffers. As far as I can see, we are simply wasting our time. If the forthcoming conference doesn’t spark some traction, the exodus of members is likely to accelerate.
“Wee after Week” we get the same whinging from the same small group. I disagree profoundly.
We are averaging 9% in the Polls & have been for some time, I expect that to go up if we get a juicy By-election , are seen to do well in the Locals or when the General Election Campaign begins, or all three if we are lucky.
The crucial point about the next General Election is that we could easily get as many MPs from Tactical Voting as we get “on our own”. To keep that possibility open we need to keep Labour Voters onside while appealing to Soft Tories, its a delicate balancing act & so far The Leadership Team seem to be doing OK.
On Topic
How can we do anything but welcome the Windsor agreement ?
The SNP & PC will of course call for the deal to be extended to Scotland & Wales. They want to break up The UK. We don’t.
SirEd is being a little disingenuous in saying he will look at the deal before committing. Will he really lead the LibDems into the same lobby as the DUP and ERG in defiance of the EU. Sunak seems to be bringing reality to Brexit.We wait to see BoJos response. Now SirEd can go back to sleep again.
@Martin..
I do not want to use the word ‘irrevocable’, however Ian Donaldson’s final paragraph cannot be easily denied: “The case for Scottish, and Welsh, independence is far stronger today than it was yesterday, and levelling up will never now be possible without the UK entering the European Economic Zone.”
For too many communities, EU membership did virtually nothing to improve their lives – they couldn’t feel it & certainly couldn’t see it …
Perpetual struggle in the EU & out …
Looking around – who could blame them..
Martin Gray. The problem was not that communities didn’t benefit from the EU, but that they didn’t know about it. The government claimed credit for all the good things done with EU money and tried to blame the EU for all the things that went wrong even if they were wholly of the UK’s making. 40 years of using the EU as a scapegoat was what caused Brexit and what fooled people into voting against their own interests. Our party’s continued silence on this vital issue is unforgivable.
HS2 money isn’t devolved to Wales (because Crewe is close enough!), electrification of railway line to Swansea is blocked and devolving tax responsibility to Cardiff airport is blocked. George Osbourne chose to look at City region in South Wales only if Swansea was ignored so to include Bristol. This week Tories in Westminster were questioned about slow broadband roll-out in Wales.
You can remove Brexit from history books but that short-sighted infrastructure investment here, the only thing Tory government in Westminster wants to invest in is road in/out of Wales, would still exist and as a result it’s likely that, slowly, jobs would still drain away and therefore working age population as well.
Culturally, King Charles being able to pass on “Prince of Wales” title without any consideration to Welsh people or Westminster continuing to block St David’s Day being a bank holiday are also nothing to do with Brexit.
I disagree with the implication that pre-Brexit the union was in a healthy state of affairs or any possible suggestion that Brexit mismanagement is the only thing going wrong. The only thing one could say is that the EU was a good funder of Welsh projects and that loss, not replaced by UK government, is clearly tied to Brexit vote.
@Mick …..They didn’t know about it ? ….
One only has to look around those communities to realise that they couldn’t see it , & couldn’t feel it …Who could blame them for voting leave …There was hardly any change in their lives for the better….It’s disingenuous to say that if we’re back in the European economic area – that somehow those communities will be at the forefront of levelling up… They were asked in 2016 to accept the status quo …And voted accordingly..
@Martin Gray “One only has to look around those communities to realise that they couldn’t see it , & couldn’t feel it …Who could blame them for voting leave”
The Remain campaign didn’t help! I remember much more consternation on these pages about the Erasmus scheme than any impact on levelling up. 🙁
Mick Taylor 1st Mar ’23 – 8:45pm:
The government claimed credit for all the good things done with EU money…
Many people were astute enough to know that it was all our own money in the first place that had been expensively and bureaucratically recycled via the EU – rather like a mugger generously giving his victim £10 back to get a taxi home. Most “EU funds” were also deducted from the UK’s rebate…
‘UK rebate’:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate
This is clearly an attempt by Rishi Sunak to put a temporary sugar coating on the catastrophe that is Brexit. It has been designed to generate a “Good news” agenda to make it seem that nice Rishi has sorted nasty Boris’ mess with a new deal. Of course in reality it is another less than half baked so called oven ready deal. I would not be surprised if a call for a quick general election follows within the next few months (even possibly as soon as May) that they can go to the country with a “Look at us. We’ve listened. We’ve changed. We’re fit to govern” message once again. And they could win. For the other parties accepting this deal without massive caveats is as politically naïve as Nick was between 2010 and 2015. And look what that got us.
As for Paul Barker’s comments, it is sad to see him once again return to name calling as a valid form of debate. The small group he should be worried about (assuming he is a Lib Dem) is the numbers of members we now have – down from over 126,000 in 2019 to less than 65,000 at the end of 2022.
The reasons for this calamitous fall are because so many good Lib Dems who are pro EU have left due to Ed’s lack of leadership on this matter. We just speak for them.
Sunak has damned Brexit in a sentence in his own words. Northern Ireland is in A uniquely good position – and by definition the rest of the UK is not.
The party, if it retains its international and European beliefs, should be attacking the Tories mercilessly, quoting those lines back at them. That does not mean a rejoin position as that is not an option given how the UK has behaved. It does mean being open about the mistakes and damage done, and being clear about what would do were ever possible to repair or mitigate the damage, for example Horizon and Erasmus.
I have not any insight into this ‘deal’. I do wonder if the green and red channels will be needed in the other direction to ‘protect’ the rest of the UK from imports through NI from the EU.
I seriously doubt the goverment could win a GE on the back of the so-called “Windsor Framework” deal. International diplomacy is hardly ever a salient issue among voters, and how a leader is perceived on the world stage can be very different from their domestic reputation. Voters are mainly interested in how such things benefit them directly, and in this case the principal beneficiaries of the deal can’t (in a meaningful sense) give a verdict on it at the ballot box.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/northern-ireland-brexit-deal-rishi-sunak-polls-2180575 (may need registration)
There is of course another event that might attract the government to a May General Election. The naming of the new Brexit deal is thus quite apt if this Tory government wishes to bask in a hoped-for “rally to the flag” effect from the deal in combination with the Coronation. But it would not be without risks, and for a government with a working (on paper) majority to call a premature GE is a very risky move indeed — ask Theresa May. The government may wish the election to be about those things, but voters will have other ideas about what they want it to be about. Attention is likely to turn very quickly back to the cost of living crisis and Tory sleaze.
Alex, I sincerely wish you were right, but I think we both remember John Major who won a General Election on the basis that Margaret Thatcher had gone and he was a good man stood on a soapbox.
Ultimately he overcame a Labour lead of over 20% and turned it into a Conservative win by over 7% in less than a year.
@David Evans: I don’t think Rishi Sunak is well placed to play a John Major. State-educated Major is from a lower middle-class family whose later reduced circumstances gave him personal experience of poverty. By contrast Rishi Sunak’s privileged background and “public” school attendance mean he could never claim to be a “man of the people”.
Also Tory sleaze was not a big issue in the run-up to the 1992 GE. It was easy enough for Major to ring the changes through a less confrontational style of government and jettisoning policies particularly associated with his predecessor, such as the Poll Tax. He did not to have to deal with metaphorical bad smells of sleaze and scandal that Sunak has inherited from his predecessors (and similar to what brought the Major government down in 1997).
The Opposition was also a great help to John Major in 1992. Kinnock didn’t seem prime ministerial, and Labour was an easy target for attacks over taxation and the party’s Militant history. Starmer looks like a far more serious candidate for PM, and has proven ruthless in facing down the far-leftist fringe.
So while it’s difficult to predict and there are never exact parallels, I think the fate of the Tories at the next GE will resemble a 1997 more than a 1992 scenario.
Alex, I’m not disagreeing with you particularly. The one thing we all need to remember is that the Tories are probably the most successful party in the democratic world at replacing leaders, reinventing themselves and coming out successfully at the other end. We can point to a list of similarities and equally a list of differences. You can point at sleaze, I can point at Johnson and Hancock the two main figures being gone. You can point to man of the people Major with experience of poverty, I can point to nice polite Rishi sorting the Brexit mess. It’s all a matter of judgement.
The thing that worries me the most is whither/wither the Liberal Democrats in all this. Virtually every Tory fightback after a change of leader has been achieved by portraying it as a two horse race and persuading Soft Tories to return to the “new” fold by a change of leader. In 2019 with “New Head Boy Johnson” we were around 20% six months out and ended at 12%. In 2017 with “New Head Girl May” we were at 10% six months out and ended at 7.5%. Over the last 6 months we have drifted from around 11% in September to around 9% now.
Things need to change and I don’t see any indication anyone with any influence whatsoever is even trying to start to do it.
John Major was able to pull a rabbit out of a hat in 1992, although his circus experience didn’t provide a magic trick to win in 1997. I suppose it’s possible that Sunak might pull a rabbit out of his hat that wins him the next GE, but I don’t think the new Brexit deal is that rabbit, for the reasons I gave earlier. It’s too abstract, and doesn’t help many people in Great Britain who can or might vote Tory. Indeed Sunak’s talking up of the deal as “the best of both worlds” for NI might cause resentment in the rest of the UK, as people could ask “Then why can’t we have it as well?” And we know the best solution. For sure, the people who wanted to “Get Brexit Done” will be impressed, but they’ll be voting Tory (or RefUK) anyway, and they certainly won’t be voting for us. For most other people, Brexit is no longer such an important issue.
Tim Rogers:
Well Lib Dems MPs voted against the original Brexit deal in December 2020, thus putting them in the same lobby as the DUP (the ERG had fallen into line) and “in defiance of the EU”. Being in the same lobby as the DUP is not a problem per se. MPs with directly opposing views often end up in the same voting lobby, with different reasons for voting as they did. I don’t know what Lib Dem MPs intend to do, but there is certainly a case for them voting against the “Windsor Framework” deal if and when it comes up for a Parliamentary vote. As with the Withdrawal agreement, it’s not an agreement that Lib Dems in government would ever come up with, as we don’t have the same Brexit hangups as do the Tories. There is absolutely no reason why we should help the government out of its own mess. Any vote would not be binding anyway, and Sunak has indicated that he would ignore any “No” vote. So it would be symbolic only, same as the vote on the WA.
The decision to vote against the WA generated a lot of discussion on this site, but seems to have been ignored by the general voting public. Likewise it’s unlikely anyone outside the Westminster bubble will care much what we do here.
@Paul Barker “We are averaging 9% in the Polls & have been for some time”
Probably a blip, but nevertheless, today’s Opinium poll for Westminster voting intention poll is sobering:
LAB: 44% (-)
CON: 27% (-1)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
If N.Ireland having economic advantages over GB is the price of peace on the island then I’m happy to pay that price. It’s possible that these economic advantages might, if sufficient allow it to remain part of the UK and in the single market. This in turn might allow Wales and Scotland to remain in GB and for us all to live happily ever after.
Peter Hirst 6th Mar ’23 – 12:02pm:
If N.Ireland having economic advantages over GB…
Northern Ireland doesn’t have a net economic advantage over Great Britain. Only a small percentage of businesses actually export to the EU [1]. Those exporters gain by having slightly less paperwork (all UK businesses have full 100% tariff and quota free access to the ‘single market’ with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement). It’s of most benefit to exporters of agrifood goods who avoid the need for an Export Health Certificate. This comes at a high price as all goods traders in Northern Ireland are burdened with ever increasing EU laws over which they have no say in making (but, their EU competitors do). Hence, the democratic deficit. Since leaving, the UK has avoided 7,391 new EU laws [2]. Around 670 of these have been applied to Northern Ireland (in addition to existing EU law).
There are several unanswered questions. Will Northern Ireland be able to fully benefit from future trade deals? For example, will India be happy to drop their 150% tariff on Bushmills whiskey (distilled in Count Antrim) if tariff reductions can’t be reciprocated on Indian imports into Northern Ireland?
1. For the UK as a whole, only 0.7% of all businesses, including 2.8% of employers and around 5% of companies, export to the EU.
2. ‘Gains from Brexit on the 3rd Anniversary’ [February 2023]:
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/gains-from-brexit-on-the-3rd-anniversary/
I always enjoy Jeff’s comments on behalf of the Brexiteers, quoting either biased, partisan data, or something from a more obscure source reflecting the perceptions of others.
And, whilst it may be the case that only 0.7% of all businesses, including 2.8% of employers and around 5% of companies, export to the EU, that subtly misrepresents what proportion of UK production that actually represents – larger companies, whose trading volumes are vast compared to one man businesses set up to take advantage of the tax code, have far more impact on the British economy.
And when even Rishi Sunak can have the audacity to claim that Northern Ireland’s position is favourable to the rest of the United Kingdom, it takes a particular talent to claim the contrary.
But then, Jeff isn’t here as a member or even a supporter of the Liberal Democrats, merely to spread misinformation in support of his ‘glorious cause’, the long-term beggarment of our country.
@Mark Valladares “Jeff isn’t here as a member or even a supporter of the Liberal Democrats, merely to spread misinformation in support of his ‘glorious cause’, the long-term beggarment of our country.”
Given that the party gives the impression it wants to make “his ‘glorious cause’” of Brexit work rather than reverse it, can we be sure Jeff is not a member or supporter of the Liberal Democrats?! 🙁
Mark Valladares 6th Mar ’23 – 3:14pm:
…the case that only 0.7% of all businesses, including 2.8% of employers and around 5% of companies, export to the EU, […] subtly misrepresents what proportion of UK production that actually represents…
Those percentages of businesses obviously don’t claim to say anything about the “proportion of UK production”. Export documentation doesn’t increase in proportion to production as larger companies generally make larger shipments. The export paperwork (and any EU EHC requirement) is the same for a single artisan cheese from a self-employed cheesemaker as for a full shipping container from Dale Farm’s factory. Large businesses have economy of scale.
And when even Rishi Sunak can have the audacity to claim that Northern Ireland’s position is favourable to the rest of the United Kingdom, it takes a particular talent to claim the contrary.
My “talent” here is recognising snake oil and spin. Under the Windsor Framework trade between Northern Ireland and the EU remains the same as under the current Protocol – in the ‘single market’ for goods, but not services. If somehow that “position is favourable”, why has Northern Ireland’s GDP lagged behind the rest of the UK? What little growth there has been is in services.
‘GDP, UK regions and countries: April to June 2022’:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpukregionsandcountries/apriltojune2022
Here’s the breakdown of GDP growth in Northern Ireland. All the growth has been in services and the public sector, neither of which is covered by the Protocol. There has been no private sector growth at all in the last year…
‘NI Composite Economic Index’ [January 2023]:
https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/economic-output-statistics/ni-composite-economic-index