I’ll freely admit that I’ve been a bit sceptical about the campaign to rejoin the European Union. Not because I don’t believe that we should be within the fold rather than outside it but rather, I felt that we needed to be clear as a nation about what we really wanted of the relationship. Also, having put our neighbours through the psychodrama that was Brexit, they needed to be confident that we really meant it before attempting to negotiate a return.
The Party itself has struggled with determining a campaigning stance. Those who joined the Party as a campaigning vehicle to overturn the 2016 referendum have mostly sought an avowedly pro-Rejoin stance, whilst others, more cautious about losing potential voters, have soft-pedalled such a stance whilst indicating their support for an eventual return. The fairly disastrous campaigns of 2017 and 2019 reinforced the sense of caution.
But the news that polling by the European Council for Foreign Relations suggests that British voters are now willing to accept free movement as part of the conditions for rejoining the Single Market, perhaps changes the game.
Tackling migration, boosting the economy and improving our security as a nation – three of the key drivers for Brexit – are now seen as best addressed through a closer relationship with the European Union, a turnaround of public opinion indeed. And, given the finding that this view is shared by voters in “Red Wall” seats too, there is a genuine question to be asked – who represents this view amongst the mainstream political parties?
Clearly, Reform UK aren’t going to support the notion, whilst a Badenoch-led Conservative Party, distracted by the steady leak of activists to Reform, is hardly likely to do a U-turn on the subject. And a Labour Party busy making itself unpopular across a swathe of policy areas and overtly cautious on Europe may not be willing to stick its neck out. That leaves, in England at least, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
But being in favour isn’t in itself going to be enough. The British public have shown themselves to be fickle in their favours over the past decade, so the lines of the argument in favour need to be fleshed out in a way that convinces people in their hearts, not just their heads. We also need to put ourselves front and centre of that campaign.
And time is of the essence. Whilst Labour are currently tiptoeing around the question, they probably won’t forever, and even though voters associate the Liberal Democrats with a generally pro-European stance, a Government with greater access to media coverage will be able to lead public opinion and frame the debate on terms rather more easily than the third party in the Commons.
But it’s not all obviously rosy from a pro-European perspective. British opinion suggests an expectation that rejoining is a distant goal even as greater cooperation is desired. There is, I suspect, a desire, likely to be disappointed, to gain the obvious benefits of the Single Market without acceptance of some of the logical consequences – regulation, decision-making led from Brussels.
Of equal interest though is the suggestion that voters in key EU member states are minded to welcome us back as part of efforts to improve security cooperation in what looks like a more dangerous world where American support might not be available going forwards. In other words, the other requirement, the need for a reciprocal welcome, is potentially met.
So, careful thought needs to be given about the order of steps to be taken in rebuilding trust and deepening support from the British people. But there is an opportunity here for Liberal Democrats to lead that debate, if we can develop some heart to go with our evident tactical skills.
* Mark Valladares is a former member of both the Party’s Federal International Relations Committee and of the ALDE Party Council.
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46 Comments
It’s quite simple, Mark …… a grown up choice between arguing for a clear mature policy commitment to a serious issue affecting the liberty and wellbeing of millions – or fudging it with endless bungee jumping which is now losing whatever is left of it’s novelty and entertainment value.
A one trick pony loses its entertainment value after a bit.
There’s no such thing as rejoin – it’s not a lapsed gym membership. All the main political parties would have to be in agreement, they’d need to be a substantial & consistent level of support from the British public by independent polling . What of of the Euro & Schengen – I cannot envisage the British public handing fiscal control of the economy – to what is in effect a bunch of German financiers. After all that it has to be said that when we were in it – it wasn’t that popular , dismal EU election turnouts and anonymous Mep’s the norm. The only time the British public really engaged was when given a chance to leave. If you look on the continent at high unemployment especially amongst the youth – it’s understandable why many want to come here . Looking at the EU economies – there hardly forging ahead.
It would probably take a book to propose how we go about rejoining the EU. Would we have to join the single currency as well? Would we need a referendum? Canwe rejoin on the same terms that we left?
In my opinion the biggest obstacle to rejoining is the growth of the populist political parties. The EU is an internationalist institution, but the people in the EU are increasingly voting for nationalist political parties. Either they are in power (Hungary, Sweden, Italy) or they have made countries ungovernable if they are not in power (France and Germany). If the trend continues the EU itself will become a shambles.
Some liberals have said to me that if we rejoin we can elect sensible MEPs from the UK that will put the EU back on track. Unfortunately given the growth of Reform and the new leadership of the Tories that does not look plausible either.
I do not know the reasons why Ed Davey cooled on supporting a policy of rejoining the EU, but I think he was right. Only when the populist movement in the EU goes into serious decline should we consider rejoining. And as things stand, that looks a long way off.
@ Geoffrey Payne “Some liberals have said to me that if we rejoin we can elect sensible MEPs from the UK that will put the EU back on track”.
How extremely modest of them.
Thanks for this. The wretched real life consequences of leaving the EU have become clear. The pro Brexit campaign was a conspiracy involving malign actors, hysterical media, and leaders who were at best gullible and at worst mendacious demagogues. We were right about Brexit and should have the courage to say so. It’s an open goal isn’t it?
@Geoffrey Payne
Yes, Yes, No, and I expect we would be required to join Schengen as well, as all new applicant countries are. When we joined the Common Market it was sold to us as a trading bloc; the proponents kept quiet about the “ever-closer union” part; the Euro with its disastrous effects on, amongst others, the Greek economy, illustrates how principles over-rule pragmatism in the EU. We shouldn’t forget how damaging to our economy was our attempt to shadow the EMU, before we finally fell out of it on “Black Wednesday”. There was back in the 1970s and early 1980s an opposition to the Common Market from the Left, which is why Wilson needed a referendum on joining, and we should look back on the arguments that some of those on the Left made against joining what they then called a Capitalist Club, and these days we would describe as neo-liberal.
@ Martin,
A quintessentially unhelpful response from someone prepared to die in a ditch for something most people agree was a failure.
And yes, you can rejoin, so that’s nonsensical.
The terms matter though, so to that extent we agree, even if we’d be on opposite sides of the debate. An “adult” negotiation would be one which openly debated the issue and brought the British public with it, with honesty about the consequences. Now, admittedly, you couldn’t rely on the Brexiteers for an honest argument, but perhaps you just have to assume that you’re speaking to (and for) an apparent majority.
Because, if you haven’t got that majority, you can’t successfully progress beyond agreeing what steps might be necessary.
I am absolutely sure we should campaign to join the Customs Union and Single Market. It seems to early to me campaign to rejoin given the political instability in the EU. Would we (LibDems) really want Britain to be a member of an EU dominated by the likes of Le Penn, AfD and Orban? We should be supportive of the rejoining groups and work hard to boost collective European security/reject any trade deal imposed by Trump, but campaigning to join the EU is a step too far at this stage.
For the avoidance of doubt, if we knew we could rewind to 2015 with nothing has changed I’d be all for it – but the world has changed.
@Laurence Cox
“we would describe as “neo-liberal’
Corbin’s argument – the EU is a capitalist plot? It’s seems a pretty liberal institution to me – properly regulated free markets, rule of law, evidenced based policy, free trade, sound money, representitive democracy, cooperation rather than conflict, human rights at its core.
“We shouldn’t forget how damaging to our economy was our attempt to shadow the EMU, before we finally fell out of it on “Black Wednesday”” Shadowing a currency is a very dangerous thing to do. It inevitably means the Treasury losing a great deal of money on a currency exchange by buying currency at more than it’s worth or selling at less and in quantities big enough to move the market. Being in the currency abolishes that market.
‘A quintessentially unhelpful response from someone prepared to die in a ditch for something most people agree was a failure’
Those towns that voted heavily to leave were hardly doing cartwheels when we were in it – couldn’t see no benefit , couldn’t feel no benefit – looking around there communities who could blame them for voting out – fom a one way traffic …The Status quo is never a
good sell …
With the majority of UK voters now ready to accept free movement in exchange for a better EU relationship, joining both the customs union and the single market look to be the best next-steps. As Starmer has ruled this out, it is time to criticise his piffling approach to our moving closer to the EU together.
Sorry but I don’t really believe there is really a majority in favour of free movement. I strongly suspect that it is similar to progressive taxation or building more housing – a majority will express support for the idea until it is them who are facing an increase in their taxes or a housing development on their doorstep.
My view is that we should be campaigning to join EFTA – gaining the benefits of trade with the EU without being in the EU may well be seen as a reasonable ‘middle ground’ on the issue.
I would rejoin the EU tomorrow, Schengen, Euro and all because quite honestly that is what is best for the UK. We would also be rule makers not rule takers as we will be if we just join the single market and the customs union. Try selling us being rule takers!
@Mary Fulton
The issue with rejoining EFTA is that it would entail freedom of movement with the EU, if not as part of the European Economic Area, like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, then a more complex bilateral arrangement, like Switzerland, outside the EEA.
Having a reciprocal working holidaymaker scheme for young people should be considered as a first step, though.
The Single Market is the sweet spot, if we make the right economic arguments we can win people over to the benefits.
This is also the issue where Starmer’s Labour are at their most vulnerable hence an opportunity to put them on the back foot.
It’s a no brainer as far as I’m concerned.
@Peter Davies
Just read what Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist wrote about the euro eight years ago: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro
As Statisa.com summarises https://www.statista.com/statistics/1115276/unemployment-in-europe-by-country/ : Among European Union countries in June 2024, Spain had the highest unemployment rate at 11.5 percent, followed by Greece at 9.6 percent. By contrast, Czechia has the lowest unemployment rate in Europe, at 2.7 percent. The overall rate of unemployment in the European Union was six percent in the same month – a historical low-point for unemployment in the EU, which had been at over 10 percent for much of the 2010s.
UK unemployment is currently 4.3%, which is lower than all but 9 EU countries.
At least with the EMU there was an escape; with the euro there is no escape, because countries no longer have their own currencies.
“. It seems to early to me campaign to rejoin given the political instability in the EU….”
One alternative argument could be that we’d better get a move on- otherwise the EU will have fallen apart before we do manage to rejoin 🙂
There’s a lot of discussion on Single Markets, Customs Unions etc but not so much on the problems and contradictions of the EU itself. If it isn’t at the moment, it looks likely to be dominated by “the likes of Le Penn, AfD and Orban” as Tristan Ward puts it. However, it’s good to see the political and economic instability of the EU has been noticed by at least one Lib Dem.
The left anti-EU argument of a “Capitalist Plot” doesn’t make a lot of sense. If it had been this they surely would have made a better job of it. I’d put it that it is a Capitalist mistake. They thought they could run a single currency with only a central bank to hold it all together. They were advised against it but chose to ignore the warnings. It’s the failure of the euro, and the imposed austerity of futile attempts to correct it that has led to the rise of the far right throughout the EU.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v14/n19/wynne-godley/maastricht-and-all-that
I broadly agree with the writer. I think the first step needs to be for our Party to say loud and clear that Brexit has failed, and is not capable of being fixed. Therefore we want to lead a national conversation aimed at building consensus that Britain’s security and prosperity will both be significantly increased by joining the EU.
I explained on Lib Dem Voice in 2023 “Britain can never rejoin the EU, it might join it.”
See https://www.libdemvoice.org/britain-can-never-rejoin-the-eu-it-might-join-it-72394.html
Bit of a sweeping statement to claim that Brexit has failed – and totally depends on by what yardstick you measure success or failure. However, it’s not unreasonable go by the wishes (in so far as we can determine them) of those who voted for Brexit. As far as I can recall from all the arguments and polls etc. at the time, the two biggest reasons people voted for Brexit were to repatriate law-making powers from the EU to the Westminster Parliament, and to end Freedom of movement and mass-uncontrolled-EU-immigration. Both of those have been achieved, so it looks to me like, on any reasonable measure, Brexit has succeeded in its aims.
As the son of an Irish immigrant at the time of the Anglo-Irish Economic War and ‘No Blacks, No Dogs and No Irish’, I am now a European untroubled by the 90 days in 180 days restrictions. My British Computer consultant son-in-law and my British lead-actor are both negatively affected. Johnson will be hauled up in the courts of history over Brexit and found guilty. The LibDems must stand up and lead the fight back into Europe.
@SimonR. Since there never was mass uncontrolled EU immigration, it can hardly be said to have been abolished. People moving to other countries under the provisions of free movement within the EU had 6 months to get employment or they had to return to their countries of origin. Immigration, the movement of people OUTSIDE the EU to the UK was always the purview of the UK government and was not and is not run by the EU.
Law making was, for the most part, under the control of the UK government and where such law making was SHARED with the other members of the EU, the UK was able to help shape that law and often did. The Brexiteers created a myth of the poor little UK being dictated to by the bureaucrats of Brussels, wheras in fact decisions were made by the council of ministers and the European Parliament in both of which we were represented and active. Whilst some decisions could be made by a qualified majority (a majority of the relevant body’s votes and a majority of countries) many needed unanimity and were still able to be vetoed.
So, wrong on both counts
Simon R’s recall is remarkable only in its self selective and self supporting manner.
There is an old saying in politics, Simon.
Look at the side of the bus!
@ Simon R. If you ever get stuck in a four hour queue at Dover – given the EU’s Entry-Exit System (EES), requires passengers to have their faces photographed and fingerprints scanned, you will have time to reflect on your comment about what yardstick you measure success or failure………… and that’s just a bit of it.
As for the Lib Dems, being all things to all men (and women) butters very few long term parsnips. There’s not much glory or long term future in being a dustbin for the temporarily disaffected in the South East Corner of England and there’s a limit to how much interest can be maintained by repeated bungee jumps.
@Mick. Returns were never enforced because they couldn’t be . Fom and New Labours failure to put a limit on the numbers facilitated Brexit – Labour lost the socially conservative vote amongst it’s redwall voters & gave rise to ukip. The rest is history. It beggars belief that a party that prides itself on localism , would hand such powers as the fiscal control of its economy to what is in effect German financiers, never ceases to amaze me. Thankfully, the British public would never give up their currency , and rightly so . Schengen would be a difficult sell on the doorstep – the Euro an impossible one. One wonders that since we’ve left why a considerable number of EU citizens have remained , & so many want to come here …
People talk about the Bus and it’s millions for the NHS -but let’s be honest pestilence hasn’t swept the land as so many doom merchants predicted..
According to Martin Gray, ‘pestilence has not swept the land’ since Brexit. That’s some threshold Mr Gray.
More to the point the economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics estimate that by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had been. Their report states that the UK will be £311bn worse off by 2035 all due to leaving the EU.
The Report states that London has 290,000 fewer jobs than if Brexit had not taken place, with half the total two million job losses nationwide coming in the financial services and construction sectors. It also shows that London’s economy has shrunk by more than £30billion. They claim the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit. They calculate that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone.
You might not like or agree with these conclusions, Mr Gray, but it would be interesting to know about your qualifications in economic in order for us to compare your assertions with the Cambridge group.
Simon R reminds us that Brexit has succeeded in its narrow aims of less immigration from the EU and more powers to make our own decisions, because so many supporters of Brexit did not consider economic consequences to be that serious. In the public arena the EU’s centralist tendencies are grossly exaggerated and its economic benefits underplayed. As a Parliamentary candidate I met many middle class and some working class people who said they were not concerned at all about the economic consequences of Brexit. In part this is due to misinformation but also because in their life history they had never been so well off and so feel economically strong enough to turn away from Europe for the sake of a strong feeling of nationalist independence. Such feelings still exist and that remains part of the problem. The opposite case needs to be put positively over a long period about how good it is to work with other nations. Another connected issue is our need to reduce economic inequality in the UK and surely this is not unconnected to our relationship with Europe. Economic cooperation is vital if we are not to be ruled by wealthy leaders of international businesses. All the indications so far are that Farage would continue the status quo in that regard.
The last vestiges of my sympathy for this government have gone with the WASPI decision today, it is perhaps even morally worse the an the 2 Child Benefit Cap, the total removal of the Winter Fuel Allowance except for those on Pension Credit or less, the VAT on Private Schools leading to the transfer of pupils to the State Sector who cannot find vacancies, the appalling class ridden comment of the Sec of State for Education as well as the Farmers and the Inheritance Tax. Next we will find they cannot pay the Post Masters nor those suffering from the contaminated blood.
The decisions being made by very affluent Middle Class professionals, now Ministers who appear to have no real understanding of ordinary folk or simple political common sense. The party should go hard at them starting with PM Question Time tomorrow, let’s relegate Labour to fourth place in the polls..
Sadly Nigel, for many that economic inequality was all too apparent, all through our membership. Populism has risen through the failures of Social Democratic parties across the EU.
What @theakes said!
Now Martin (Gray), I’ve heard a lot of claims and excuses for why people who disagree with you are wrong, but I don’t remember anyone mentioning pestilence as a result of Brexit. I do remember people talking about NHS staff shortages, NHS ambulance queues and loss of local GPs and dentists. And somehow they have all got worse.
Now come on Martin, you really have to give up on making rubbish up in the hope of a rabble rousing crescendo of cheers for your oratory at an end to your posts.
… there’s a good lad.
Oh dear. So many reasons to be cautious, to be scared about asking for what we want. What about another referendum / the euro / the terms to be negotiated / the rise of populism? Shall we just hide under the bedclothes instead?
Farage, Cummings and Johnson had lots of good reasons to be scared of their opponents, and to be bewildered by all the huge problems that they would be faced with on leaving the EU. They ignored all these risks, and just fought as hard and dirty as they could manage. It’s called a winning attitude. They won.
Can we learn from them? Do we have the necessary humility to do that?
@David E…..As I’ve said, if it’s that bad why did so many EU citizens remain in the UK & many more still want to come here and work . You only need to look at the economies of some member states to realise that…EU membership was irrelevant to many communities – didn’t make one iota of a difference in their lives. We hear far too much about the social aspect of the EU – thankfully that myth went out the window when the ECB was imposing unending austerity on democratically elected governments..
@Martin Grey
” It beggars belief that a party that prides itself on localism , would hand such powers as the fiscal control of its economy to what is in effect German financiers, never ceases to amaze me”
Up to a point. Liberals are not just localists – the on going nimbyism of our our party is a problem we have to solve as well as a strength. Liberals are also internationalists. Supranational problems (like global warming, management/restraint of international corporations, procuring properly regulated free trade, ensuring security in the face of expansionist China, immigration, getting a stable environment) require international cooperation and international solutions and international structures.
@David evans
I don’t remember anyone mentioning pestilence as a result of Brexit”
There were people predicting war in Europe. Not quite the same, but equally apocalyptic.
It was denounced as “Project Fear of course, but today we are seeing Trump and his ilk looking as if they are going down the same appeasing route as the 1930s.
If the Liberal Democrats are committed to and believe in the European Union then there is no question that they ought to be promoting the policy .
But what does that mean?
My feeling is that our Country is still evenly divided about membership of the EU. Therefore there is likely to be considerable opposition to Rejoin from a large percentage of the electoratte. Moreover many who might otherwise be willing to support Rejoin will remember the anomosity and brutality, on both sides, of the period following the EU referendum. Therefore I suspect that, unless I am wrong about that, that few voters will welcome reopening the mode without clear evidence of a change of heart.
Also I think that the pro EU side fail to appreciate that very few on the pro Brexit side oppose close cooperation with the EU. They just don’t want to be a member of it. For this reason pursuing closer cooperation might be a better tactic.
Also the terms of rejoining need to be carefully thought through and this will take time. For example the fishing industry. Many coadtal towns have suffered serious decline because the CFP was perceived, rightly in my view, to be biased against them. If we do rejoin then their interests need to be protect. I suggest around two thirds of the available catch should be reserved for UK boats.
Following on from my previous comment; many on the Rejoin side seem to be unable or unwilling to accept that most Leavers were acting in good faith based on their assessment of their priorities. Some of the comments above seem to be unable or unwilling to accept this. With that attitude it will be impossible to build the wide spread support which will be necessary to successfully rejoin.
@David Evans. No I don’t believe my memory is selective. I’m perfectly well aware of that bus. The claim on that bus was awful and untruthful. But I don’t believe for a moment it was a significant factor in why millions of people voted to leave. People, on the whole, voted to leave because they wanted an end to Freedom of Movement and to have legislative powers repatriated to Westminster, and they were willing to accept a slightly lower GDP in order to get those things. Brexit achieved those aims and to that extent it was successful.
@Mick Taylor: With respect, that’s misleading. The employment restrictions on FOM were in practice largely meaningless because they were almost impossible to enforce. So for all practical purposes the UK had no ability to control EU immigration levels. FOM was a lovely ideal and was great for people who wanted to move around the EU, but at the same time the resultant high migration levels were disastrous for those who then couldn’t get a place to live or access to a GP in their own local communities because migration-lead population growth had totally outstripped our infrastructure.
Indeed Tristran (Ward). There wan’t anyone mentioning pestilence as a result of Brexit. However, you haven’t really explained why you choose to mention such a fiction.
As for war in Europe, well we have got it well and truly now – Mainly because Putin, emboldened by success in undermining our place in the EU since Brexit, decided he could win easily and take the whole of the Donbas and possibly the whole of the Ukraine. Now the bravery of the Ukrainians in defending their fledgling democracy has been exemplary, but, as we all know, once fanatics like Putin go for it, they will never be able to go back without allowing a catastrophic loss of face.
So those like Nigel Farage who chose to call it Project Fear had clearly borrowed Zaphod Beeblebrox’s Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses that day!!
Now I wonder how much the Ukraine war has cost the western democracies and as for the cost to the poor Ukrainians, who can start to produce an estimate. However as you indicate Trump is still a fan of appeasement. It is a crazy world we live in.
@ David Evans. I didn’t mention pestilence. Martin Gray did. I suspect it was not meant literally.
If “pestilence” was “not meant literally”, then it’s a strawman. Mr Gray seems to be saying that Brexit cannot be called a failure because the UK still has a functioning economy in which most people aren’t in abject poverty. This is completely missing the point. You might as well say AIDS isn’t a problem in Africa because there are still millions of people living in Africa. Just for the avoidance of doubt, this is not meant to imply any equivalence between the two things, but an exercise in logic. The question is not whether people are (still) reasonably well-off after Brexit, but how much better off we would have been if Brexit hadn’t happened.
“it’s not unreasonable [to] go by the wishes (in so far as we can determine them) of those who voted for Brexit.” who voted in a referendum that happened 8½ years and 3 general elections ago. This is a zombie mandate.
Indeed Tristran.
You are correct. I just linked the subjects not the authors. Sometimes it happens – to me.
Apologies.
… and further apologies, Tristan, for mis-spelling your name.
Alex, David. The comment regarding why so many from the EU have remained, & why so many still want to come here to live and work is a very valid one. Also, for many, eu membership wasn’t great , and did not make any material difference in their lives. Couple those with voter apathy come EU election days. All valid points imo, that many commenting seem to ignore.
It is important we have a clear policy that hopefully will be where the present government ends up. We don’t want to be following Labour announcements that, being in power will probably be a series of responses to events. As we will probably end up rejoining the eu, the sooner we declare that and campaign on it the better.