To mark the start of 2012, we’re running a series of posts over consecutive days on the main challenges for the Liberal Democrats in 2012. I’ve already written about the four priorities for the party’s new Chief Executive, Tim Gordon, but as the Liberal Democrats are more than just the one man whilst he has four, this series sets out six for the party.
When the May 2012 set of seats were previously contested in May 2008 the party made net gains – up 33 seats overall – despite a 4% fall in the party’s notional national vote share* – down from 27% in 2004 to 23% in 2008. That should provide only limited reassurance, for in 2011 the figure was down to 16%. In other words, even a significant recovery in the party’s position from May 2011 (and the results in local council by-elections have been improving steadily since that low) would still see a net loss in seats.
However, recovery of some sort – even if it is not enough to see net gains – is vital. The Mets are especially important as with generally the same wards up for election in 2012 as 2011 year on year comparisons will be straightforward and also as the Liberal Democrat share of the vote in the Mets last year was lower than in any of the three previous decades.
The national political scene of course has an impact on local results, but in most wards local teams can beat the national trend – either by doing spectacularly well or (especially if the closure of public toilets is involved, a rather odd long running traditional way for a Lib Dem group to implode) spectacularly badly.
It is therefore the national scene’s indirect impact via local morale and motivation which is often the most telling and it’s no coincidence that local parties where there has been strong local leadership to get out and talk to people on the doorsteps have consistently had the best results. The willingness of local activists to show positive leadership will be vital – though I’ve no doubt those unwilling to do so will be happy to point fingers at everyone but themselves.
* This figure is an estimate of what the party would have received if the whole country were up for election; i.e. it adjusts from year to year for the differing range of seats up for election.
You can read the full set of challenges as they are published on Lib Dem Voice here.
* Mark Pack is Party President and is the editor of Liberal Democrat Newswire.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
Labour MPs revolt
Edward Street of old #dundeewestend
Tens of Thousands
A Puffin Books profile of Joan Aiken
"Could you be the one to help a care leaver?"
Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion polls
Simon R
Steve Trevethan
Peter Martin
nigel hunter
Craig Levene
10 Comments
para 2 “in 2012 the figure was down to 16%. ” — I presume that should read “in 2011”.
Might I remind readers that Wales and Scotland have all out elections in May as well as the Mets. In 2008, the Liberal Democrats won 166 seats across Wales and as a result have a direct influence on policy in Cardiff (35 out of 75), Ceredigion (10 out of 42), Swansea (23 out of 72) and Wrexham (12 out of 52).
The site Political Betting ran their usual prediction competition yesterday; the average for Libdem seat losses in May was 200+. Based on Marks figures I would have thought losses of 70 seats more reasonable.
To echo Harry, in Scotland every single Council seat is up for election in May – under STV, introduced by the Lib Dems. In 2007 the new system was successful in smashing ancient Labour fiefdoms. It’s not surprising many senior Labour figures aren’t that keen on it.
The lessons we can learn from Scottish by-elections mirror your own experience. If people do all the right things that ALDC tell them, they get much better results. By-elections are run by AV up here and recently we won by 7 votes in Inverness. That was a classic campaign with lots of door knocking and literature. It is so important to be out there on the streets as much as possible – and any work done now will so much more effective than that done in the final 3 weeks.
“The Mets are especially important as with generally the same wards up for election in 2012 as 2011”
They are particularly important as many areas had poor results in 2010 and 2011 so we will be defending the final seat we hold in that ward. Once you are “frozen out” of a ward and lose all your councillors it is much harder to start winning again.
I think the finger pointing comment is extremely harsh to the many who lost seats in 2011 through no fault of their own, and to those who may well lose them in 2012. Ill judged. In my neck of the woods we lost strong campaigners (as well as weak ones) and will probably face the same again if Lib Dem voters stay at home again in May.
Don’t underestimate how hard it is for Groups in control having to manage unprecedented cuts in the face of rising Tory popularity and a disappearance of the squeezed Labour voters, who only voted for us to keep the Tories out in the past.
There are no simple answers, effective campaigning is crucial. But many good people will lose their seats and point. O fingers.
@Paul Barker:
“Libdem seat losses in May was 200+. Based on Marks figures I would have thought losses of 70 seats more reasonable.”
Last year, the Lib Dems lost 695 councillors, with Labour gaining 800 and the Tories 81. Although we may well have recovered by a couple of points this year, some areas are now far weaker than they were last year, due to the losses incurred then. To contemplate our losing a mere 70 seats nationally is ludicrous. We shall likely lose more than that in metropolitan areas alone.
I am also concerned that this article is written with only England in mind. Perhaps that’s because the writer realises that the Lib Dems are going to face massive losses in Scotland? After all, Scotland is now suffering under a Conservative led UK government, despite the Conservatives having only a single Scottish MP – thanks to the Liberal Democrats! Very few in Scotland would have voted Lib Dem if they had believed they would help the Tories take power – payback will begin in May.
Malcolm: That’s right. Now fixed.
Harry / Caron: Good points. The vote share figures in this post by the way are all for Great Britain (i.e. not just England but including Scotland and Wales).
Lewis: No, hence the figures being GB rather than England-only.
According to ALDC in 2012 there are 192 Lib Dem Met seats to defend; 70 in Unitaries; 248 in Districts; 150 in Scotland ; and 154 in Wales. Looking at the results last year in England, that would lead to about 120 Met losses; 30 Unitary losses; 90 district losses – a total of 240. Applying the assembly results to Scotland and Wales (probably a bit overly negative) would leave us with 120 Scotland losses and 100 in Wales. Total 460 down.