I’m challenging myself with a prediction of how the local elections will pan out. Admittedly, I don’t quite have the time or energy to go through each ward of each council up for election in England and estimate who I think will win. However, what I will predict is the general overview of each party and how they will fair nationally. Do they make net gains or losses? What will be the spin on their reflections of their results? Will it have a big impact in British politics over the coming year? For clarity, to make a good prediction, I will have to take my Liberal hat off and look at everything objectively.

Gains and Losses

Overall, the party I believe will have the most gains are… Reform UK. Why? Unfortunately, there are two reasons. Firstly, the national polls. Reform UK have been polling at virtual tiebreak with Labour, with the latest MRP poll showing that Reform would be the largest party in Westminster if a general election were to be held today. It is quite unusual to see a party (other than Labour or the Conservatives) be near the lead in the polls. Also, with the huge membership drive in their ranks, they have an impassioned base with many candidates and members on their campaign trail. 

Of course, there is the debate over whether national polls matter in local elections. Don’t voters vote on local issues? I’m sure there are and I’m sure that it will have some effect in certain areas. When the Tories held onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the by-election a couple of years ago, it did buck the national trend in the polls. However, in my opinion, the majority will vote on national issues. When they see the party logos on the ballot paper, they don’t think about potholes or bins (unless you’re in Birmingham), but they think of what they see of the parties today. They see what the government are doing, and the people are not happy.

Secondly, Reform UK in numbers, have nothing to lose. The seats are from the 2021 cycle, which the Conservatives overwhelmingly won. They are taking the right-wing vote, and they will make many gains in these circumstances.

Moving onto the Liberal Democrats, I think we will make some modest net gains. Aiming to be the party of ‘Middle England’ is a smart strategy where we can gain some further ground from the Tories. So far, a smooth campaign from Sir Ed Davey and avoiding any major blunders, I think it will be a successful campaign… fingers crossed!

Labour will make losses. Unlike 2021, incumbent governments have struggled in local elections and Labour has certainly lost support since the election win last year. There is plenty of fertile ground for Reform UK to make gains from Labour too, especially areas like Runcorn and Helsby where a by-election is taking place.

The Conservatives best brace for themselves. I am sure Kemi Badenoch is having nightmares right now, picturing the scenes of despair. Crestfallen colleagues in parliament, Tory councillors losing their jobs and the headlines. Oh, the headlines… I bet Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly are rubbing their hands in glee. With the Tories currently losing to Reform UK in the polls, hardly being mentioned in the news (for now) shows that the country do see Reform being the ‘real’ opposition to Labour and voters have not yet forgiven the Tories on their record in government and there are plenty of seats to lose. This election could not have come at a worse time for her.

The Greens, I hear you ask? Yeah, they’ll probably make some gains in certain areas. However, their big challenge (like ours) is to be seen to win. That moves me to my next topic…

The Spin

As you will see, everyone will claim victory in the local elections. Reform will be shouting it from the rooftops; us Liberal Democrats will try to do so too. The Prime Minister will robotically spew out something on the lines of “Parties in government always struggle in local elections… we will continue the work of change” and the Tories? They’ll try to highlight one or two areas where they did better than they expected but if they make big losses, Kemi will be under major pressure and there will be conversations of whether she can survive as leader for the rest of the year. The Greens? They’ll try to get some airtime, and they will, but I can’t imagine that is what people will be talking about in their homes when they watch the news.

The Big Impact on British Politics

There will be two major impacts (if my predictions are correct). Reform can, worryingly, point to some more solid evidence that they have a strong movement and can make inroads to not just being ‘the main opposition’ to Labour but can flirt with the idea of being in power. Also, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership will be a talking point and will make headlines. The exact thing that she does not want media attention on. I suspect that she will make a U-turn and start complimenting Farage on issues they agree on, opening the door for a future election pact. 

Hopefully, I’ll be able to post my summary of the election results, reflect on these predictions and discuss where I think we Liberals need to go next in another opinion post on Lib Dem Voice. Stay tuned…

* Jim Coupland is a member of the Liberal Democrats who joined us from the Labour Party. He describes himself as a "passionate Liberal".