t’s tempting seeing the fall in the Tory poll ratings and the turmoil in Government as presaging a disastrous General Election for them. But we have been here before – in the early summer of 2019 they were regular getting polls ratings in the 17-24% range and they lost 1,300 councillors that May and yet they went on to win a General Election a few months later.
If there is one thing we know about the electorate it is that it has become hugely volatile with voters much more willing to switch parties which is great in many ways but may still work against us.
Nor can we assume a continuous economic crisis: The EY Item Club Forecast has inflation dropping to 1.8% in 2024 with growth of 2.4%. There is plenty of economic pain in store for 2023 with average earnings continuing to fall but we should not under estimate the Tory’s ability to present lower inflation as an achievement of theirs.
The Tories are probably the most electorally successful party in the world: they have an extraordinary ability to reinvent themselves -helped of course by vast amounts of money and a formidable lack of scruples in how they fight elections.
We also need to remember there is still a substantial group of authoritarian voters who find their approach in areas like immigration to be aligned with their views – and we can be sure they will ruthlessly be reminding of that in the run up to the election. There is always the possibility that the Tories may chose a vaguely competent leader ( we don’t have long to wait!)
None of this means the Tories will win the next election – but it does means that we have absolutely no room for complacency. We can’t rely on the Tories to win the election for us!
* Simon McGrath is a Councillor in Wimbledon and represents Lib Dem Councillors on the Party’s Federal Board
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20 Comments
Spot on!
The Conservatives are always adept at harvesting the ‘anti-Labour’ vote. They have been doing that for the best part of the last seventy years and are unlikely to deviate from that. Scare tactics are their stock in trade.
I shall say it again – we need many more PPCs in place to be focal points in building up weak constituencies. We shall not optimise our performance by parachuting in unknowns at the last minute. Who is addressing this problem?
133 MP’s and counting are supporting an MP who hasn’t tweeted, given an interview or officially stood in this race; 77 MP’s and counting are backing an MP who stepped down in disgrace, who refused to leave because we needed an PM while Tory party spent 10 weeks campaigning then went on holiday throughout that time, and is still under investigation for misleading The Commons; but just 24 MP’s are backing the one MP who has officially stood and isn’t directly tied into mistakes of past 2-12 years.
None of these three have properly spoken about what their plans are given that things are 10x worse than when each last spoke publicly.
We can never rule the Tory party out because of i) FPTP, ii) boundary changes*, iii) Tory party scrapping 15-year limit on how long UK citizens living abroad can vote, iv) how much power Tory party press has over election results last seen with Liz Truss beating out Penny Mourdant, v) Tory party skill at reinventing themselves and bending global events to their benefit.
*P.S. if you scrap investment into northern rail, refuse to devolve HS2 money to Wales because it improves Crewe Station which should be enough for Wales but are happy to go over budget by £500m on one station in SE of England, of course the jobs and thereafter the population will move to these areas. Smaller populations indicate national investment neglect, changing boundaries to reduce their say rather than increase it is continuing the cycle.
And we must not forget to squeeze Labour and the Greens where we need to – otherwise we will be over-whelmed.
The economy was recovering in the lead-up to the 1997 election. This didn’t help the Tories, because of lingering memories of Black Wednesday and the various Tory sleaze scandals, which are dwarfed by Partygate.
Of course we cannot rule out the Tories making recovering from their present polling depths. But it would be a bigger mountain to climb than it was in the 1992–97 Parliament, and would probably require a near-complete change of people in government. How can any Tory leadership team distance itself from the policies of the previous Tory administration of which its members were part?
incidentally, the power of the right-wing press is somewhat over-rated. The papers may have just been reflecting rather than leading opinion among Tory hardliners when they endorsed Liz Truss. And opinion polls since Truss became PM clearly show that the Truss-supportingg press misjudged wider* public opinion.
* I almost wrote “wiser” and was tempted to leave it!
“no room for complacency” is very true, Simon. That applies to Labour as well as us. It means careful targetting of constituencies, excellent locally based candidates, cooperation between opposition parties and a focus on the issues of most concern to the electorate. The latter will be around aspects of the Economy and Health and Social Care, with good messaging, not complicated policy. Other policy areas can be linked to these, e.g. economy requires well educated and well skilled people, health requires healthy lifestyles, well-being and personal care. Within this we must challenge the Conservative’s approach and record, constantly and mercilessly; say something several times and people who are sceptical eventually feel it to be true. Never assume that because Conservatives say or do things that are obviously wrong that the public will not believe in them. That was the mistake made over Brexit before the referendum.
Tristan Ward 23rd Oct ’22 – 11:23am………..And we must not forget to squeeze Labour and the Greens where we need to – otherwise we will be over-whelmed……….
And help save the Tories… I thought our main aim is to help the country rid itself of this ERG led government?
Yesterday’s Daily Mail led with the headline ‘Could Boris and Rishi Now Unite To Save The Tories’..No mention of the nation or it’s people, just ‘The Tories’…Let us be better than that!
Its true that Tory Polling levels were as low in Spring 2019 as now but the difference is where the votes went. In 2019 the lost Tory votes were scattered across the spectrum, both to the Right & Left. The situation now is starkly different with voters going straight to Labour. Labour are currently polling around 55% with The Conservatives around 20% & still falling.
The other big difference is what the lost Tory voters are angry about, in 2019 it was the almost Religious debate about Brexit, now its about core Conservative values – Stability, Competence & Money.
Its always possible to say ” don’t speak too soon for the wheels is still in spin” but if I was forced to call it now I would say that something fundamental has shifted in England – a shift comparable to the one in Scotland after The Independence Referendum. A new stable Politics where Labour are the permanent Government & other Parties compete to be the opposition.
@Come on, expats, we need to squeeze Labour and Greens in our target seats. That doesn’t help the Tories.
We will also expect to be squeezed in Labour target seats.
Good points Simon.
the issues by 2024 won’t be inflation, but mortgage rates and public services.
The bigger concern on the subject of squeezing would be us out of the national media campaign. Where were our leaders last week? If we say nothing then our poll numbers drop and Labour/Green voters in our target seats become influenced by the national picture.
@Chris Moore 23rd Oct ’22 – 2:16pm..
Latest ‘Poll of Polls’..Labour 54%, LibDems 10%… Good luck with that squeeze..
@expats: In 1997 Lib Dems more than doubled our seat tally on a slightly reduced vote share. This was mostly down to targeting and tactical voting. We lost only 1 seat, and that was to Labour. This time we have no Labour-facing held seats. In any case, I would not try to predict any outcome of a General Election until the campaign proper starts. National opinion polls in electoral peacetime say very little about individual constituency contests, especially for the Lib Dems.
Dear Simon,
You make a good case for arguing that the Tories’ power of recovery should never be underestimated, but Paul Barker’s comments do demonstrate why we are in a different situation from 2019 (or any previous pre-election period). Nor should the figures be underestimated. On the latest polling, with the Tories on 19% and Labour on 55%, the mathematics on a uniform swing across the country demonstrate that the Tories would be wiped out entirely (check the figures!). That’s worth repeating – they would not be left with a single seat in the House of Commons. Of course, some might hold on through their personal votes in their own constituency. But you will recall the results of the 1993 Canadian election, when the incumbent Conservative Party was reduced from having a majority down to just 2 seats! So that precedent shows it could happen. Realistically, thought, the next two years should give any quasi-competent government some scope for (partial) recovery.
Thanks for the comments everyone. Rif -long time no see – i think about 40 years !
In response to these points, in the article, as well as contributors I’d say, confusion reigns as what to do?!
If Simon in the article, and Paul Barker below it, are correct, this party can increase somewhat, but unless we have an alliance, or a relationship like the Co operatives, with Labour, we are to see a massive Labour majority with a few Tories and a few Liberal Democrats.
I would feel this party being in opposition with the Tories, us on the sidelines, with a moderately sensibly minded Labour govt , almost as lousy for Liberal Democrats, as to share govt with the Tories was!
We need Starmer’s Labour to join with this party , for the good of both. No more far left ruining opposition, no more hard New Labour, no more lousy right wing policies!
Democrats Us, Uk style?!
Why would Labour enter into a pre=election pact with anyone if it were on course to win a North Korean style majority?
Clearly any election under FPTP that is going to give one party 80% of the seats on 54% of the votes negates the opportunities of truly representative democracy. Alex is perfectly right that (whatever their membership says at their Conference) the Labour hierarchy will never adopt PR once FPTP has given them such a massive majority. On the other hand, we can with some pleasure look forward to seeing the Tories shifting their views on this issue after the next General Election reduces them to an infinitesimal rump. Now is the time for Liberals to re-double our remands for a fair voting system (STV).
P.S. Yes, Simon, it is 40 years!
“Now is the time for Liberals to re-double our remands for a fair voting system (STV).”
Or it will be the time if Labour achieves the kind of parliamentary majority being discussed here – an elective dictatorship.
I’m actually not convinced that the Tories would be suddenly converted to PR if they were reduced to a rump. The Canadian Conservatives weren’t after 1993— evidently they still thought of themselves as a potential party of government. (The right-wing Reform Party, OTOH, did support PR despite benefiting from FPTP with a highly concentrated vote share; however, it seems to have forgotten about that after it merged with what was left of the old Progressive Conservative Party to form the current Conservative Party).
The SNP still supports PR for Westminster, and also shows no indication of wanting to change to FPTP for Holyrood, despite potentially benefiting from such a change.
So don’t assume that self-interest is the only thing that determines support or not for electoral reform. Party history and traditions are also at play. And if the Lib Dems won a majority in Parliament and then failed to implement PR, we would look very bad indeed and it would harm us at the following election even if voters don’t really care about the issue per se (cf tuition fees).