Since the World Cup of 1966 there has been a number of occasions for the British to hear the first lines of the former German national anthem: “Deutschland über alles. Über alles in der Welt” (“Germany above all, above all in the world”). Should a new line been added in the wake of the recent Greek crisis, and in the wait for the next one? Then it would go as “German above Europe”.
As the third major country in the EU, with France and Germany, the UK opinion and leaders should pay heed, even if this distracts a bit from home election issues.
Up to recently, the German policy, whatever the government, could be summed up as: “What’s good for Europe is good for Germany.” Though reluctantly, the acceptance of the euro was one of the latest and clearest signs of that trend. The shift of these last weeks is increasingly regarded as a move in a more self-centred direction. Or : “What’s good for Germany should be good for Europe.”
In history books, the arrogance shown by Angela Merkel and her coalition partners will probably stand close to Margaret Thatcher’s most famous acts. It started with press campaigns, proposals from backbenchers to sell Greek islands, got on with a former German finance vice-minister asking all Southern-Europe economies (including France) to get out of the Eurozone if they don’t behave like Germany. The Chancellor’s aggressive posture came on top, whose only sign of flexibility was to finally admit IMF’s intervention, a humiliating defeat for the European Central Bank and eurozone ministers.
This time, not only German’s face was saved, but also most of Germany’s economic and monetary interests. The French were forced to reach a deal, and for the others it was just a fait accompli. In the short term, Greece will be “rescued” (for how long and at what cost?). In the long run, Germany (again) wants more integrated (who said more German?) fiscal policies and stronger economic co-ordination. It is up to a EU president who looks since his non-election as a servant of the Franco-German holy alliance to push forward the integration path. Can, and will other EU nations, not least the UK, accept that?
The Franco-German alliance that has ruled the EU over five decades is based on the two following ideas: the French want further political integration while the Germans look for deeper economic integration. Both have been followed by a core of nations (Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Spain) which now represent a minority, perhaps not in terms of population (well, at least their representatives) but certainly in the number of states.
Despite this, and a growing Euroscepticism in public opinion (the Lisbon treaty would have been rejected in a majority of member states had it been submitted to referendum), Berlin, Paris and Brussels – we mean the Commission – keep on pushing toward more integration and harmonisation. These ideas, much liked mainly by the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, should be dealt with caution by liberals and democrats.
By the way (1), EU circles bet on Cameron’s victory so as to cut deficits and serve EU’s interests. Paradoxical and hypocritical, but it’s a fact. Rumours a rapprochement of the Tories with Sarkozy and Merkel centre-right are well founded. By the way (2), for those not familiar with German politics, the so-called “liberals” (i.e. the FDP), even if they sit in the same group at the EP, have relatively little in common with British liberal democratic traditions and the Lib Dems. So don’t count them as real allies.
Don’t get me wrong. The German model has its pluses: an export machine unmatched in Europe, diversified economic fabrics, good productivity, high-skilled workers (also thanks to effective training schemes), social protection, product quality, global brands, lower deficit, efficient infrastructure, etc. Some of those virtues, not always recognised by its opponents would be worth considering or emulating, and not only in Greece but also in Britain, for example.
But should the whole German model, notably the obssessive attention to inflation, be exported across Europe? Why should Berlin be entitled to pursue expansion goals to the detriment of others’ demand-oriented policies and at worst encourage deflationary policies? And should the euro be valued like the former mark?
The current crisis is providing Germany the opportunity to make its control over the eurozone explicit, before its own demographic problems catch up with it, with all related costs. Paying for the others now could mean others knocking at the door soon and… not paying for “us” in the future. It has a limited window of opportunity to make or break its leadership of the EU. Germany’s birth rate is lower than all of the major European powers, including the UK, while its population is significantly older. This is not to say that controlling Europe will help Berlin solve its demographic problems, just that if Berlin is ever going to take command, the time is now.
The alternative to further integration and “Germanisation” could of course be disintegration. But it might also mean, more positively, a EU with less tentacles. Can and will Germany accept this? That’s the big question. The most often heard answer is no. So what then?
“When the time comes, Europe will need Germany to be Bismarck and Germany will need Europe to want a Caesar,” concludes US intelligence group Stratfor in a recent analysis. Not to say that you should be ready to jump on the Spitfires, but it sends shivers, doesn’t it?
Between the devil – EU’s excessive integration dominated by Germany and France (to a lesser extent)- and the deep blue sea – EU’s disintegration with… German domination- the British approach to Europe -mostly consisting of a free-trade area with, depending on the parties, a number of joint initiatives or common policies- might prove the right one. Ironic, isn’t it?
Mike Guillaume
Mike Guillaume is an economist and financial analyst. He is the author of “The Seven Deadly Sins of Capitalism” (excerpts available on www.mikeconomics.net). His main office is in London and he shares his time and work between other international cities. He is a partisan of the Lib Dems.
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18 Comments
“Since the World Cup of 1966″… well, that isn’t a leading introduction at all.
Um, those are the words to the German national anthem. The National Anthem’s first two lines are:
Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit
Für das deutsche Vaterland!
[Unity and justice and freedom
For the German fatherland!]
The Deutschlandleid of 1841, has Deutschland über alles as the first line, not über alle – ie Germany above all other things in my life, not Germany above all other countries.
The rest of the article is slightly more accurate, but not enough to be worthy of a response.
Sorry, Edward, but I don’t get the point.
This reads like a machine translation.
“German above Europe”
“… the UK opinion and leaders should take heed…”
“less tentacles”
What?
I can’t remember the last time I read something so incoherent on so many levels.
I dont get this article. Germany has done exactly the right thing in forcing free-loading satellite economies to stop wrecking the Euro by leeching the benefit with loose economic policy. Yet somehow you have turned this into a rant about Germany taking over the world.
But then, looking back to your previous anti-European rant I can see what the root of all this is…
To IainM:
Thanks for your comment. Indeed there’s a typo: it should read as “Germany above Europe”. Can you tell me where you find it “incoherent” so that I can explain?
To Richard Gadsden:
I wrote “former” anthem. Two points: The least one can say is that “über” is ambiguous, so much that the Nazis played with it. The lines with “über alles” are still used more than once in meetings or football games.
If the article is not “worthy of a response”, Germany’s attitude would be worth one. But i’m afraid the traditional home issues will prevail. Even more “globalised”, Britain remains an island, for better and worse.
To MBoy:
As I write, not everything is wrong in and about Germany…
For the sake of clarity, I used to stand among the “Europhiles” (tough with a pinch of salt) and have turned increasingly into a “Eurosceptic” over the last years. No need for me to… rant again. This would require a long article, and you’ve had enough of it!
But yes, I find many Lib Dems a bit naive about the supposed benefits of EU integration. What were seeing now with Greece, Germany (who and what next?) clearly shows the limits of the United Europe project.
Let me correct some “errors” and omissions in this ugly piece of polemic. This unfortunately will take a while.
The first paragraph in itself is near xenophobic. It does not represent the views of any Germans I have ever known. Or anything I have seen or read in the German media. Maybe Mr Guillame has access to information I am not aware of. If so, he should share it with the rest of us. Otherwise this is just another conspiracy theory. The far right NPD only got 1,47% of the vote in last year’s parliamentary elections.(source:ARD)
I would like clarification of paragraph 3. Which ‘shift’ is being referred to?
Paragraph 4. I am not aware that backbenchers were calling for the sale of Greek islands. As I recall it was on the front page article of ‘Bild’ a german newspaper. Not a broadsheet newspaper. The idea of expelling countries like Greece who repeated broke the rules was floated as a measure of last resort. In any case it did not happen as it would require a change to the treaties, which is not going to happen. Germany was pushing for IMF involvement, which I am pleased they got.
Paragraph 5. My understanding of events is that German is looking for a mechanism to ensure that another Greece does not occur. This is story is still live, we will not the final solution until the dust has settled on this particular crisis. As far as integration is concerned, the German goverment is constrained by constitutional court rulings. Which has unequivically stated that the Geman government can only develop, to quote:
“With its Article 23, the Basic Law grants powers to participate and develop a European Union which is designed as an association of sovereign national states (Staatenverbund). The concept of Verbund covers a close long-term association of states which remain sovereign, an association which exercises public authority on the basis of a treaty, whose fundamental order, however, is subject to the disposal of the Member States alone and in which the peoples of their Member States, i.e. the citizens of the states, remain the subjects of democratic legitimisation.
”
(source:BVerfG, 2 BvE 2/08 vom 30.6.2009) Preliminary version of English translation.
Clear enough.
Paragrah 8. What in particular is wrong with the FDP? They appear to be rather more Liberal than the Lib Dems, other than that I have not seen any major points of complaint. More unsubstantiated claims. Their leader Guido Westerwelle is allegedly gay (source: Wikkipedia ‘Guido Westerwelle’ on both German and English pages). They must be at least liberal.
Paragraphs 9 & 10. A single currency brings benefits as well as problems. The jury is still out.
Paragraph 11 onwards is pure polemic. I will refrain from further comment.
Paragraph 6
Astounding that the Lib Dems, complicit in the sellout of the people of this land to the EU [see the Lib Dem website and the statement at the top] should allow such a sane post to go up here. Yes, Germany is driving the EU, most importantly, in its methodology, the latest being in the Fisheries Bill which shouldn’t have anything to do with intellectual property rights but is actually being used as a backdoor through which to enforce Article 133’s concept of how to go after the common people on this matter. Backdoor, underhand and zero to do with the best interests of the UK.
We need to be more than careful with Germany – we need to get out of the EU tout suite.
To Bruce Wilson:
As a liberal, I don’t mind listening to different viewpoints, and am ready to change my mind.
But I’d like to set the record straight about what you name “errors and omissions”, plus a bit of the rest.
Therefore we’ll need more than Wikipedia.
a. Xenophobic? Have you read what I wrote below about the pluses of the German model? I wrote a number of articles in mainstream media (FT included) that were less positive and even more aggressive about German leaders’ attitude. It’s an open secret that a majority of Germans never “bought” the euro and would like to get back to the Deutsche mark (polls have consistently showed that).
I know and work with many Germans too and I can perceive some evolutions in their mindset. Saying that there are less Europhiles there than in the past would be a mild statement. And it’s not only about the NPD.
Finally, yes I have “access to information”, which is not secret at all, e.g. from Stratfor, a US intelligence group that is referred to at the bottom of my article (visit http://www.stratfor.com/regions/europe). Visit also http://www.eurointelligence.com (not exactly eurosceptics, less than yours truly). For the rest, I read the media…. carefully and am in tough with think tanks.
It is annoying not to be able to criticise Europe and/or Germany without being named nationalistic or europhobic.
I have nothing at all against Germans. On the contrary, it is a pleasure working with them.
b. The shift was/is obvious to most observers. Mrs Merkel’s stance was about Deutschland first and, pardon the pun, above, with Europe as an afterthought. Have you forgotten the way the “deal” to Greece was (not) negotiated and the French first and all the other EU nations and the Commission were forced to accept the fait accompli. There are hundreds of articles about that. Let me remind also that for the very first time since the euro inception a former German minister hinted at kicking out eurozone members.
c. Another error -not mine. No, it was not only about German tabloids. Read http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20100304-25667.html about how two parliamentarians, of which one from the FDP (the German liberal party) suggested Greece to sell some of its islands.
d. “Germany was pushing for IMF involvement”: right, but why? Because it didn’t want to pay and prefers to pass the buck to save Merkel coalition’s face. Not to mention that German’s solo push (France was much against it) and success is a defeat for the ECB which had little to say. This proves to the sceptics that, at least in this crisis (and wait until the next one), Germany is über and France and all others follow suit.
e. “Germany is indeed looking for a mechanism to insure that another Greece does not occur”. Certainly, but why did it accept Greece as a eurozone member in spite of number-fudging (some will say because France wanted so, and it’s part of the truth)? And why should others, and only others pay -and pay also for not accepting the balances/imbalances reqsulting from German domination. See e.g. FT’s Martin Wolf on March 30: “Why Germany cannot be a model for the eurozone.”
f. Like most continental liberal parties, FDP is a conservative liberal party. Before getting back on track a few years ago it also flirted with populism and was about to follow the path of the infamous Austrian “liberal” party, which is on the far right. By the way, I don’t see why having a gay at the top (incidentally a very poor foreign minister) qualifies as “liberal”. Some top Nazi dignitaries were homosexual. Were they liberal?
“Since the World Cup of 1966 there has been a number of occasions for the British to hear the first lines of the former German national anthem: “Deutschland über alles. Über alles in der Welt” ”
Those lines haven’t been used in the German national anthem since WWII.
To Sgt Skepper: It”s not because it’s written on Wikipedia that it’s true!
A few weeks later my article, amid the “Greek crisis” and two days before the general election…
May I invite you to read the following lines from Wolfgang Munchau on http://www.eurointelligence.com/:
“The more worrying development is the resurgence of German nationalism and euroscepticism, a trend Merkel tried to exploit for her own political benefit. This has not yet fully caught on in other parts of the union. If and when it does, I wonder whether politicians and economists in those parts begin to question the wisdom of a monetary union with Germany under such circumstances.”
Germany is merely following the doctrine of ‘he (or in Germany’s case, she) who pays the piper calls the tune’. Germany is the biggest net contributor to the EU, ahead of the UK, so why shouldn’t it call the shots?
I am in Italy and I was watching a political talk show last night where the Greek commentators and some of the Italian ones as well were calling for ‘more Europe’, without spelling out what that really meant. Meanwhile the German commentator was putting forward the idea that the Greeks should be punished ‘pour encourager les autres’.
The events in Greece really are putting Euro solidarity to the test and the Lib Dems need to be much more rigorous about what their position is on Europe. Britain could be in a very good position to work with other net contributors like the Netherlands and Germany to push for a major reshaping of the European project. In this case, a crisis is too good an opportunity to waste. The danger is that it will be used for even more European integration, putting UK membership into crisis, rather than an examination of the arrangements that already exist.
Frankly this piece rather echoes Thatcher’s dysteutonic beliefs at the time of the German Wiedervereinigung, which she opposed. Not correct then, not correct now.
Continuing (hi)story:
Go to http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006080758dowjonesdjonline000218&title=germanys-klaus-regling-to-head-eu-stabilization-fundsource.
LUXEMBOURG -(Dow Jones)- German national Klaus Regling will head the European Union’s new European Financial Stability Facility as its chief executive officer
He who pays the piper… RULE GERMANIA
Continued: Greek islands now up for sale!
Read in The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/24/greece-islands-sale-save-economy.
Some German bankers will probably be happy to buy a few.
It’s like in the World Cup: Germany doesn’t lose more than it really wins. They’ll probably miss the drachma-deutsche mark days but it’s perhaps a matter of time.
Don’t say you were not warned!
Samuel Brittan might make a good minister -or ate l:east adviser- in a Lib-Con coalition, him more on the centre right, next to Vince Cable more on the centre left.
His column dated November 4 in the Financial Times -”The futile attempt to save the eurozone”- (read on http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/def42cae-e84b-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html#axzz14OWNbezW), is much in line with what I wrote here, goes straight to the point… and is heavily based on Christopher Smallwood’s analysis (“Why the euro needs to break up”. Read on: http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/analyst-wire/mi_8077/is_20100712/christopher-smallwood-economist-capital-economics/ai_n54421867/).
Smallwood is a social democrat turned eurosceptic (a bit like me as a Lib Dem, by the way) and rightly refers to the euro as “a corset”, for Greece then, and now for Ireland and others.
Germany and a few northern Europe neighbours are the only ones for which the “corset” doesn’t work.
How long will it last?