Tag Archives: caerphilly by-election

Today’s by-election in Caerphilly isn’t just about one seat: it’s a canary in the coal mine for Welsh democracy. The surge by Reform UK demands urgent action from liberals, not only in turning out in force but also in seriously addressing the underlying shifts that are opening the door to populism in Wales.

For decades, Caerphilly has been a Labour heartland. But the numbers now tell a startling story. A recent poll puts Reform at 42% and Plaid Cymru at 38%, with Labour languishing at 12%. Across Wales, Reform is reported to be opening up leads over Labour.

This is not just a standard shift between major parties; it is the emergence of populist parties that seek to tear the United Kingdom apart, one literally and the other culturally.

As liberals, we must see today’s by-election in Caerphilly for what it is:

• A defence of liberal democracy at a time when populist politics thrives on division and resentment.
• A recognition that voting doesn’t just express preference, but protects democracy itself.
• A wake-up call: if Reform can surge in the South Wales valleys, then the next decade could bring far bigger challenges in Wales and beyond.

There is a growing trend of disaffection with old certainties, such as the assumption that Labour will always win in Caerphilly. Voters in Caerphilly are telling journalists that they “don’t know anyone” who is voting Labour anymore. Decades of Labour’s dominance have bred complacency, and we are all suffering from it. Reform’s ability to draw from former Conservative and disillusioned Labour voters is troubling for liberals and liberal democracy.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats offer an alternative route to Reform’s populism, Labour’s complacency, and Plaid’s nationalism. An alternative rooted in community, decency, and equal opportunity for all; values that are the foundation of Wales. We stand for fairness, with policies that promote social justice and equality. Where Labour has grown complacent, we listen, act and fight for local people. Where Plaid seeks to carry out a Welsh Brexit, we strive to strengthen Wales as part of the United Kingdom AND Europe. Every vote for the Welsh Liberal Democrats in Caerphilly is a vote to show that Wales still believes in hope over hate, and solutions over slogans.