Today’s by-election in Caerphilly isn’t just about one seat: it’s a canary in the coal mine for Welsh democracy. The surge by Reform UK demands urgent action from liberals, not only in turning out in force but also in seriously addressing the underlying shifts that are opening the door to populism in Wales.
For decades, Caerphilly has been a Labour heartland. But the numbers now tell a startling story. A recent poll puts Reform at 42% and Plaid Cymru at 38%, with Labour languishing at 12%. Across Wales, Reform is reported to be opening up leads over Labour.
This is not just a standard shift between major parties; it is the emergence of populist parties that seek to tear the United Kingdom apart, one literally and the other culturally.
As liberals, we must see today’s by-election in Caerphilly for what it is:
- A defence of liberal democracy at a time when populist politics thrives on division and resentment.
- A recognition that voting doesn’t just express preference, but protects democracy itself.
- A wake-up call: if Reform can surge in the South Wales valleys, then the next decade could bring far bigger challenges in Wales and beyond.
There is a growing trend of disaffection with old certainties, such as the assumption that Labour will always win in Caerphilly. Voters in Caerphilly are telling journalists that they “don’t know anyone” who is voting Labour anymore. Decades of Labour’s dominance have bred complacency, and we are all suffering from it. Reform’s ability to draw from former Conservative and disillusioned Labour voters is troubling for liberals and liberal democracy.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats offer an alternative route to Reform’s populism, Labour’s complacency, and Plaid’s nationalism. An alternative rooted in community, decency, and equal opportunity for all; values that are the foundation of Wales. We stand for fairness, with policies that promote social justice and equality. Where Labour has grown complacent, we listen, act and fight for local people. Where Plaid seeks to carry out a Welsh Brexit, we strive to strengthen Wales as part of the United Kingdom AND Europe. Every vote for the Welsh Liberal Democrats in Caerphilly is a vote to show that Wales still believes in hope over hate, and solutions over slogans.
Today’s by-election may feel like just another local election, but it is anything but. It is a moment when liberalism must not flinch. It is more than just winning seats. It is a fight to preserve the space in which open, tolerant, outward-looking politics can thrive. If we allow the populist surge to proceed unchallenged, we risk not just losing a by-election to Reform, but also negatively changing the shape of Welsh and British democracy for years to come.
If you are based in Caerphilly, please: get out and vote for the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Your vote is crucial in defending liberal values and liberal democracy. Your vote can stop Reform.
* Jack Meredith is a member of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and an active campaigner and canvasser with Swansea and Gower Liberal Democrats. His writing focuses on democratic reform, social justice, trade unionism, economic democracy, and the institutional foundations of effective government. He has written for the Fabians, Lib Dem Voice, Liberator, Nation Cymru, Bylines Cymru, and Centre Think Tank.
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14 Comments
Your link to the poll at Caerphilly shows Lib Dems at bottom on 1%, so if you say “liberalism must not flinch” what can we do? I like to think I agree with you about us fighting for Liberalism but I have loads of questions. Is the local party active and how active? Are there enough activists in South Wales who could have helped with our campaigning and what sort of effort was achieved? WIth our limited national resources how much expenditure and effort is worthwhile? (I saw a comment last night that the national party has given the Lib Dems in South Wales no help at all in this by-election) . I raise these questions not only for Wales but in relation to other places where Lib Dems are such a tiny group and up against a situation of several years inactivity compared to other parties. These questions can in some places be said of Ukip/Reform too, but they seem to have suddenly found activists motivated by the national situation who are prepared to campaign locally.
By the way, I have the impression that although Plaid Cymru want independence for Wales they also believe in internationalism, not isolationism and in fair economics not inequality. So Plaid is much much better to win than Reform; so what should our tactics be in that situation?
I feel a lot of sympathy for this but if I was in Caerphilly I would be Voting for Plaid, purely to stop Reform. I loathe Nationalism of any sort but this Election will be fight between fairly mild Nationalism & Faschism, Plaid are by far the lesser of two evils.
Of course I wish the Voters of Caerphilly had a better choice but we start from where we are.
Diolch (thanks) Jack.
The one-sixteenth of me that is Welsh is feeling rather proud.
Yes, taken in isolation the Lib Dem result in Caerphilly is a kick in the teeth. But the most reassuring aspect of this byelection was the high turnout which, according to some reports, was in large measure young voters who were not particularly political but were determined to vote tactically to keep RefUK out. We know from last year that tactical voting can do remarkable things. Fingers crossed that in 2029 tactical voting can be mobilised against the UK branch of MAGA; and if it can be, the Lib Dems will have an important part to play.
The above were all written before the results of the by-election were known. As you will now be aware, the actual result was a clear win for Plaid, although Reform’s surge was considerable. Labour did even worse than predicted, polling only 11%.
First thing to say, my sincere commiserations to Steve. I know you and your small team worked hard against enormous odds, and deserved better. But Paul Barker’s comment is understandable, and clearly many voters in Caerphilly – doubtless including Liberal Democrat supporters – thought similarly and voted tactically to keep Reform out.
Second, Labour is collapsing fast throughout Wales, and it’s clear that next May’s vote will be a two horse race between Plaid and Reform, with the other parties being squeezed out (note the Conservatives suffered even more than Labour in Caerphilly, down to 2%).
As you are aware, in May the new arrangements will see sixteen new constituencies, each electing six members by a form of proportional representation (not our choice of the type of PR, but let’s put that aside for the moment – it’s what we are stuck with). With Plaid and Reform neck-and-neck across Wales, all the other parties have to decide who’ll they will back to form a government on the following day. And that includes LibDems as much as Labour, Conservatives and Greens (which are the only other parties expected to win any seats). However many seats we have (realistically it’s likely to be 2 or 3), we will need to put Plaid into office (not a coalition, please, PLEASE, but a confidence-and-supply arrangement!) as they will in practice be the only chance to keep Reform out.
@Steve Aicheler
Croeso i chi, fy ffrind (You are welcome, my friend).
You fought hard for us, and you should be proud of your work. Now it is time to hold the new MS accountable and ensure they do right by Caerphilly!
Three by-elections – to different parliaments and in all three the Lib Dems have polled under 3%, behind the Greens and with a reduced vote share. That’s partly a reflection of how hollowed out the party is in vast swathes of the country. In my non-political friends circle (liberal in outlook, for the most part degree educated, heavily pro-remain/anti Reform) the LIb Dems don’t even get a consideration. And that shows in votes. In West Yorkshire I think the Lib Dems still have fewer councillors than they did after the 2015 election.
And contrast to another South Wales by-election – Islywyn in 1995. The LIb Dems polling 15% ish as they are now, a rampant opposition party, failing government. Then the Lib Dems polled 10%+ with a near double vote share.
The time to recognise weaknesses is from a position of comparable strength (which the party undoubtedly has post 2025) – I just don’t see that happening though. Just a focus on being the party of prosperous middle (southern) England that survives on soft Tory and tactical Labour votes.
Local by elections suggest Reform may have peaked.
Bromsgrove South next week will be interesting, Lib Dems close last time, strong in Bromsgrove and could take from Reform
Plaid are basically socialists in the same way that Labour used to be.
The party has a very strong base now in south and south west England.
However, we also have 6 Westminster MPs in London and in Scotland, several in the Midlands and in the north and 1 in Wales. Together those are more MPs than we had in total at General Elections in 2015, 2017, 2019, and from the 2nd World War up till 1983.
The fact we now have a regional stronghold throughout the south is to be welcomed! not deprecated. Many of these seats were no-hopers going back over a century.
We are also making advances in new seats, as recent local by-elections have shown.
The fact there are areas of weakness should not blind us to progress or opportunity. ALL parties have areas where they are weak.
When the SDP polled fewer votes than the Official Monster Raving Looney Party at the Bootle By-election, they closed down. The OMRLP polled better then Bootle in another 4 contests, peaking at 4.2 % of the vote. It is not just the Liberal Democrat complacency that is alarming, it is the actual lack of substantive things to say.
The biggest haul of MPs since 1929 could turn out to be a freak result like 1923 and the Liberal Reunion, a recovery built on sand. Where is the Lib Dem momentum ? Where is their Zack Polanski ? Where are the demands for fixing problems, instead of tinkering at the edges so no one will notice?
I worry that some of us here on LDV are not looking at our situation objectively, and instead of starting with the facts and reaching conclusions, they are looking at fond wishes and projecting the facts onto them.
Yes we have more MPs than in about 100 years, but we have less members than we have ever had except for the period of self harm known as coalition.
Yes, we have 72 MPs, but almost all of those gains were on the basis of the total collapse of the Conservative vote, Reform splitting what was left almost perfectly from our viewpoint and tactical voting. Those MPs have paid staff who probably do half of the work and almost all of the organisation and co-ordination in those constituencies, but with falling membership those seats would once again be one of Chris Moore’s no-hopers if the MP loses nest time.
Likewise Jack is right when he says that the Caerphilly result is a wake-up call: if Reform can surge in the South Wales valleys, then the next decade could bring far bigger challenges in Wales and beyond.” However, it is even more a wake up call for the Lib Dems in Wales where Plaid are now clearly identified as the party who can beat Reform. That is a massive threat to us in May’s Welsh elections and our targets will need to be cut back drastically otherwise we may not even win any seats in the enlarged Senedd.
“Many of these seats were no-hopers going back over a century.”
Not sure about branding ‘many’ as ‘no-hopers’. All the seats won in 2024 were either seats won previous or seats where the Lib Dems had a strong history (since 1983 at least) of decent-ish second places. Many were also areas with strong records of Lib Dem local government strength and would have gone gold on eg the national projection of local election results in some of those years. I’d be surprised if there were any that hadn’t seen the Lib Dems within a moderate striking distance at some point in that history since 1983 (a majority of say under 8,000).
I think the focussing of Lib Dem strength across the South (east) *is* a major strength. It brings the parties electoral base much more into line and cohenrent with its political position. You can make the point – I think I have – that it was never a sustainable position to be electing MPs from Burnley to Richmond on Thames.
But if you are to accept that means polling at extinction levels in large swathes of the country that makes the Lib Dems a regional party, not a national one.