UPDATED: The 91 seats where the Liberal Democrats came second in the general election (or The Sunday data workshop experiment continues…)

Thank you all for your excellent comments to my earlier post, pointing out the errors in my spreadsheet!

I see it as an experiment in community data creation!

My main problem is that I did not screen out seats with a large Nationalist element, mainly in Scotland.

So I have weeded all that out and I am now down to the generally accepted 91 seats.

This time, as suggested by Geoffrey Payne, I have ranked them by the (majority/total votes)/2 % to give the “swing needed”, with the smallest %age at the top.

* Paul Walter is a Liberal Democrat activist. He is one of the Liberal Democrat Voice team. He blogs at Liberal Burblings.

Read more by or more about or .
This entry was posted in General Election.
Advert

5 Comments

  • Andrew Daer 27th Jan '20 - 8:17am

    Also of interest are the 33 seats where Labour came second, and our vote was greater than the Conservative margin of victory; had we (admittedly with the benefit of hindsight) stood down in those seats, the Conservative majority could have been much reduced.
    Under PR we would undoubtedly have a coalition government and Brexit would have been cancelled – which is the wish of the British people, according to polls. Fighting a FPTP election we each had the unenviable task of using our single vote to try to engineer enough Labour MPs to stop the Conservatives – but not too many, which would have given Corbyn an undeserved victory. As canvassers we had to try to influence voters to help us in this task, although in many cases we didn’t know ourselves what we were trying to achieve. In places like Cheltenham it was easy because we were either going to come a close second or win, and pro-EU Labour supporters had an easy choice (although too few got the message, and we came second).
    In places like Kingswood we were always going to be a distant third and Labour a pretty distant second, so encouraging Lib Dem supporters to vote Labour was pointless. Between those two extremes there were places where the choice was agonising; admit we stood no chance and help Labour, or cling on to a hope of winning. In many of the seats where our vote would have pushed Labour ahead we stood no chance ourselves. In Thornbury and Yate, which was a realistic target seat at the outset, we were too late switching our canvassing to nearby Cheltenham.
    However, although we can now see we got a lot wrong, gaming the FPTP system on the hoof is a nightmare, and is something people in a mature democracy shouldn’t have to do.

  • Andrew Daer 27th Jan '20 - 8:29am
  • It is often assumed that if the Liberal Democrats stood down their votes would go to Labour. Is there any evidence that this is what happens or would happen ? I do not think so but there is some evidence that many Labour voters switch to the Liberal Democrats if they have a much better chance of beating the Conservatives although Labour never withdraws its candidates.

  • Peter Hirst 27th Jan '20 - 5:10pm

    We will still need to hang on to those who came over to us from Labour and win over some soft Tories to win these Conservative seats under our present electoral system, not an easy task. An important question will be how important it will be to differentiate ourselves from Labour. This will differ according to the specific characteristics of that seat.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarGwyn Williams 28th Feb - 11:08am
    I would like to add my thanks to Peter Price for his work, sound advice and wisdom over many years. The Welsh Policy Committee just...
  • User AvatarPeter 28th Feb - 11:06am
    @wg - You are right. In Scotland, for example, they have cut down over a million trees to make way for wind turbines, all in...
  • User AvatarThomas 28th Feb - 10:42am
    David Raw - I know Tim is a good man. But he is boring, uncharismatic and thus cannot rally people to him. A charismatic leader...
  • User AvatarThomas 28th Feb - 10:37am
    wg - perhaps American cultural/media influence is too great. In America, climate change denial is a thing.
  • User Avatarwg 28th Feb - 10:34am
    Julian Tisi - yes, precisely. Most people don't deny that the climate is changing; that's what climate does - and has been doing for this...
  • User AvatarGordon 28th Feb - 10:30am
    An excellent article. LDs have always relied only on tactics and never had a coherent strategy – and never will as long as the party...