The Brazilian presidential elections could presage a major shift in Western Hemispheric politics.

At issue are the rabidly pro-Trump conservative policies of Flavio Bolsonaro v. the more independent-minded and left-leaning incumbent President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula).

Flavio is the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro who is serving a 27 year prison sentence for attempting to overthrow the government and conspiring to assassinate President Lula. At the top of the younger Bolsonaro’s manifesto is the promise of a pardon for his father.

He also wants to lower taxes; do away with at least ten government departments and build five huge maximum security prisons.

But most important of all is Bolsonaro’s foreign policy. He wants to reduce ties with China; pull Brazil out of BRICS and forge iron-clad links with the Trump Administration to create “the strongest conservative alliance in the history of the Western hemisphere.”

Lula’s attorney general is investigating claims that the Trump Administrating is helping to finance the Bolsonaro campaign. The White House and State Department have denied the claims.
First round of voting is on Sunday. There are 13 candidates but Flavio and Lula are the only two that count. The opinion polls give Lula the slight edge in round one with a projected 45 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro. It is highly unlikely that either of the front runners will run the overall majority required for a first round victory.

So, the presidential election will almost certainly go to a second round on 25 October and current polls predict a dead heat. This means even more claims of American election interference and, of course, more denials.

Canada’s Mark Carney continues to be President Trump’s third worse nightmare and biggest mistake. The first one is undoubtedly the Iran War and the second is probably tariffs in general.

This week the Canadian prime minister announced the projected construction of “Pacific Link” pipeline to carry roughly 20 percent of Canada’s oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast for shipment to Asia.

The pipeline will be a key element in Carney’s plans to reduce Canada’s dependence on its southern neighbour. Reducing dependence, however, is not good news for America.
Canada is not generally known to be an oil giant. But the fact is that it is the world’s third largest producer and has proven oil reserves of 171 million barrels. Eighty-three percent of them are in Alberta.

At the moment 90 percent of Canada’s oil exports are piped across the border to refineries in the Midwest and along the Gulf coast—Trump country. Canadian oil represents 63.4 percent of America’s oil imports.

Canadian oil is a heavy crude. America’s home-drilled variety is what is known as “sweet light.” Different refineries are geared to refining different types of oil. This means that the refineries that would have been receiving Canadian heavy crude will either have to import oil from Venezuela, Mexico or the Middle East or go through an expensive reconfiguration of their equipment. Canadian Energy Research estimates that the loss of 20 percent of Canadian oil experts could affect 133,000 full time jobs in the American Midwest.

But that is not all. The new pipeline is also expected to push petrol prices in the MAGA heartland. At the moment Americans pay a discount on Canadian because Canadian producers are dependent on the American market. By diversifying their exports, Canadian are increasing competition. This, plus the need to import oil from further afield, is expected to push up prices in the US, especially in the regions which refined Canadian oil.

Texas is Trump land. It is a Republican red state. No, it is actually a right wing scarlet blot on the American political landscape.

Trump won the state by a 13.7 percent margin in 2024. Ted Cruz won the Senate race by an 8.5 percent margin.

But that was before inflation, the Iran war, tariffs, the White House ballroom and trigger happy ICE agents.

Now, there is a reasonable chance that Texas will have its first Democratic Senator since 1993. The opinion polls are still tight, but they show Democrat candidate James Talarico averaging a stubborn three percent lead over Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton.

Talarico is a young (37) left of centre former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. Ken Paxton is the combative Texas Attorney-General who is in the middle of a messy divorce and in 2023 was impeached for misuse of office.

Squeaky clean v. shady is one aspect of the race, but there is also the financial side. There are no limits on how much can be spent on American elections and too often the prize goes to the candidate with the most cash. In the case of Texas, that is Paxton.

As of 1 October, Republicans have spent more than $200 million backing Paxton. Democrats have spent $61 million on Talarico who, despite the spending difference, is maintaining a stubborn lead.

The congressional races also reflect the Lone Star state’s shift to the left. In 2025 the Republican-controlled state legislature–with Trump’s blessing– gerrymandered the constituency boundaries for the 2026 races. They reckoned the new borders would give Republicans an additional five seats. But the latest polling suggests that they may end up with little gain or, even a loss.

If The Democrats win in scarlet Texas then the Republicans do not stand a snowball’s chance in the rest of the country.

Lost in a flurry of uncivil parliamentary language this week was the question of whether Donald Trump could still be prosecuted for events surrounding the January 6 riots of 2021.

Trump-supporting Republican Senator Eric Schmitt took full advantage of parliamentary immunity to promote what turned out to be a false conspiracy theory, call former special counsel Jack Smith a “total dirtbag” and accuse him of perjury.

Those accusations grabbed the headlines. But of greater importance was Smith’s opening statement, in which he said: “Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation.” He added that, if presented with the same facts today, he would prosecute regardless of the president’s political affiliation.
Those alleged crimes included conduct surrounding January 6 as well as the handling of classified documents. Smith was preparing to take the cases to trial when Trump was re-elected. Because of the Justice Department’s policy that a sitting president cannot be federally prosecuted, Smith sought dismissal of the cases.

But there is an important qualification: the January 6 case was dismissed without prejudice. That means the dismissal itself does not prevent the government from bringing the charges again. Judge Tanya Chutkan also ruled that presidential immunity is temporary and does not continue after a president leaves office.

None of this means that Trump will be prosecuted after leaving office. Smith himself has declined to say whether the case will be refiled. But the legal door was left open.

Perhaps that helps explain why Trump has another reason to ignore the Constitution and seek a third term.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”