The latest poll (in today’s Scotsman) would give the SNP 44 seats (+17), Labour 39 (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 (+7) and Conservatives 15 (-3). (There aren’t complete figures for the other parties).
These figures are not nearly as good for the SNP as previous polls, causing the Scotsman to write:
Share:Voters bring high-flying SNP back down to earth … the findings are likely to be a blow to Nationalist morale, which was boosted by other polls which suggested they could win up to 50 seats at Holyrood.
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“Voters bring high-flying SNP back down to earth … the findings are likely to be a blow to Nationalist morale, which was boosted by other polls which suggested they could win up to 50 seats
The poll putting SNP at 50 seats was System 3…they’re not very reliable and they used to over-estimate SNP (and also Labour in the FPTP vote) in past elections.
We seem to have had the same idea.
http://www.liberalreview.com/content/2007/04/half-a-setback-for-the-snp
There is also a john curtice piece commenting on the results.
Andrea is right on System Three (although I don’t recall the SNP telling people to disregard it).